The markets are up big this morning on the news that a group of the world's largest central banks have coordinated a liquidity injection into the banking systems to help ease the tightening credit conditions that we have been talking about of late.
The action included the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, the ECB, the Swiss National Bank, and the Federal Reserve. They said, "The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in the financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and to help foster economic activity".
The central banks agreed to lower the pricing on U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points. This is intended to help foreign banks who where having difficulty with short-term funding in the market.
Investors are viewing this as a positive sign that the central bankers learned their lessons from 2008 and appear steadfast in their intention to be proactive in avoiding another credit crunch and banking crisis.
Additionally, there was some positive economic reports in the U.S. The ADP Employment report showed payrolls increased by 205,000 in November, far more than the 125k consensus. Moreover, last month's payrolls data was revised upward to 130,000 gain. The Chicago PMI report also improved to 62.6 in November from 58.4 the prior month. So that is a good indication that manufacturing activity continues to expand.
Europe's markets are sharply higher this morning, and the Dow is up over 400 points so far. The euro is also higher which is boosting commodities. Copper prices are up 6%, silver is rallying, gold prices are $30 higher above $1750, and oil prices are back above $101.
The 10-year yield is up to 2.09% today; and the VIX is down nearly -9% to 28.0, though it has already bounced higher from its earlier lows. At the end of October it was below 25, so it still has some room to move lower if this rally is to have legs.
Trading comment: This is already a big move. The time to buy was last week, when bearish sentiment was on the rise and the market was extremely oversold. When those two combine (bearish sentiment and oversold technicals) it is usually a good setup for a market bounce. Then you just need a catalyst to spark the buying, which is what we got today with the central bank action. From last Friday's close, the SPX is already up 7%. I wouldn't chase today's strength, but I think you can continue to buy dips in here.
30 Kasım 2011 Çarşamba
29 Kasım 2011 Salı
Consumer Confidence Jumps
With all of the negative news in the media, you would think that consumers would simply remain downbeat until they see clearer signs of job growth, a housing rebound, and an improvement in Europe. But today's consumer confidence number was a big surprise.
Stock futures were barely higher prior to its release, but jumped afterwards. The Consumer Confidence Index for November spiked to 56.0 from 39.8 the prior month. Moreover, consensus estimates were only for 42.5. So that is a nice bounce in consumer sentiment, and could be play into solid holiday sales which began with a strong Black Friday for retailers.
Asian markets were higher across the board overnight after the strong rally here in the U.S. And Europe is higher this morning despite rumors that S&P might be looking at France's sovereign debt rating for a possible downgrade.
In corporate news, Tiffany (TIF) gave disappointing guidance and its stock is getting hit. Also, AMR has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will being a reorganization. Silly airlines.
The 10-year yield is higher to 2.04%; the dollar is lower, helping commodities; oil prices are up near $99.50, and gold prices are slightly higher to $1715; as for the VIX, it is down another 2.25% to 31.40, but even at a level above 31 traders are expecting continued high levels of volatility. The VIX hasn't been below 25 for more than a day since early August.
Trading comment: I said yesterday that I felt the market was very oversold, sentiment had grown more bearish, and the market should be able to add to yesterday's bounce. I still feel that way, even though volume yesterday was nothing to write home about. The SPX has been in this trading range of roughly 1150-1250 for a couple months, and could stay there. If so, then current levels are roughly at the halfway point of said trading range. In this environment, the best strategy continues to be buying the dips and selling big rallies. You have to take small profits when you have them, otherwise you are simply riding the waves up and down but never making much progress.
Stock futures were barely higher prior to its release, but jumped afterwards. The Consumer Confidence Index for November spiked to 56.0 from 39.8 the prior month. Moreover, consensus estimates were only for 42.5. So that is a nice bounce in consumer sentiment, and could be play into solid holiday sales which began with a strong Black Friday for retailers.
Asian markets were higher across the board overnight after the strong rally here in the U.S. And Europe is higher this morning despite rumors that S&P might be looking at France's sovereign debt rating for a possible downgrade.
In corporate news, Tiffany (TIF) gave disappointing guidance and its stock is getting hit. Also, AMR has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will being a reorganization. Silly airlines.
The 10-year yield is higher to 2.04%; the dollar is lower, helping commodities; oil prices are up near $99.50, and gold prices are slightly higher to $1715; as for the VIX, it is down another 2.25% to 31.40, but even at a level above 31 traders are expecting continued high levels of volatility. The VIX hasn't been below 25 for more than a day since early August.
Trading comment: I said yesterday that I felt the market was very oversold, sentiment had grown more bearish, and the market should be able to add to yesterday's bounce. I still feel that way, even though volume yesterday was nothing to write home about. The SPX has been in this trading range of roughly 1150-1250 for a couple months, and could stay there. If so, then current levels are roughly at the halfway point of said trading range. In this environment, the best strategy continues to be buying the dips and selling big rallies. You have to take small profits when you have them, otherwise you are simply riding the waves up and down but never making much progress.
28 Kasım 2011 Pazartesi
Hope Springs Eternal In Europe
The market put in a dismal week last week, with no Thanksgiving bounce like we often see. Coming into today, the S&P 500 had been down 7 straight sessions, which puts the market in an oversold position.
Lo and behold, rumors of new progress in Europe have sparked interest in buying the recent dip and the markets are sharply higher in early trading. Asian markets were higher overnight and Europe is up strongly this morning.
In Europe, the IMF is working on loan support for Italy. And there is also talk about a new eurozone fiscal pact that would make budget discipline legally binding and enforceable by EU officials. This new amendment to the Lisbon Treaty has been pushed by Germany's finance minister who thinks this initiative would be the best way to calm market fears.
There have also been lots of talk about the strong holiday retails sales that started with Black Friday last weekend. The retail etf (XRT) is up nearly 4.25% so far today, leading the early action.
The energy and materials sectors are also up strongly with commodity prices bouncing. Oil prices are back above $99 and gold prices are up near $1717. Silver and copper prices are up nicely as well. The bounce in the euro is helping the CRB gain 1.5% so far.
The 10-year yield is trying to stay back above the 2.00% level (currently 2.04%); and the VIX is down -7.6% so far to 31.85.
Trading comment: There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm this morning to take advantage of the recent market dip. But there is still a lot of overhead resistance, and given the way the market has traded recently most investors are probably defensively positioned. If the news in Europe is for real, and can gain additional traction, that would be very good for the market. But if things flare up again across the pond, this could easily turn out to be another one-day wonder and disappointment. So I don't want to get too aggressive just yet.
Lo and behold, rumors of new progress in Europe have sparked interest in buying the recent dip and the markets are sharply higher in early trading. Asian markets were higher overnight and Europe is up strongly this morning.
In Europe, the IMF is working on loan support for Italy. And there is also talk about a new eurozone fiscal pact that would make budget discipline legally binding and enforceable by EU officials. This new amendment to the Lisbon Treaty has been pushed by Germany's finance minister who thinks this initiative would be the best way to calm market fears.
There have also been lots of talk about the strong holiday retails sales that started with Black Friday last weekend. The retail etf (XRT) is up nearly 4.25% so far today, leading the early action.
The energy and materials sectors are also up strongly with commodity prices bouncing. Oil prices are back above $99 and gold prices are up near $1717. Silver and copper prices are up nicely as well. The bounce in the euro is helping the CRB gain 1.5% so far.
The 10-year yield is trying to stay back above the 2.00% level (currently 2.04%); and the VIX is down -7.6% so far to 31.85.
Trading comment: There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm this morning to take advantage of the recent market dip. But there is still a lot of overhead resistance, and given the way the market has traded recently most investors are probably defensively positioned. If the news in Europe is for real, and can gain additional traction, that would be very good for the market. But if things flare up again across the pond, this could easily turn out to be another one-day wonder and disappointment. So I don't want to get too aggressive just yet.
24 Kasım 2011 Perşembe
THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET & GOLD'S A WAVE ADVANCE
I have decided to post the weekend premium report to the blog this week. In the report I'm going to take a look at what has transpired, and what is likely to come, as the third leg down in the secular bear market begins to intensify.
Back in April of this year I warned investors to get out of stocks in their 401(k) accounts. At the time the dollar was moving into the timing band for a major three year cycle low. It has always been my expectation that the rally out of that major bottom would correspond with the stock market moving down into the third bear market leg of the secular trend that has been in place since 2000. As we now know the dollar did bottom in May of this year and that did correspond with the top of the cyclical bull market that began in March of 2009. It has also been my expectation that the next four year cycle low would occur in the fall of 2012, and that 2012 would be one of the worst economic years in human history.
This is already starting to unfold across the globe as social unrest that began in the middle east has spread to Europe and now the United States. Economic data has been steadily eroding for months now. We should expect this trend to continue and intensify as we get into 2012.
As most of you know I use cycles analysis and sentiment to determine likely timing band's for major turns in the stock market, gold and the dollar. This is what allowed me to anticipate a bottom in the dollar cycle at a time when everyone was expecting the dollar to collapse, and a top in the stock market when everyone was bullish and expecting a move back to new highs.
An interesting development in the yearly cycle for the stock market has now emerged. Generally speaking most yearly cycles tend to run about 12 months trough to trough. However the Fed's quantitative easing programs have stretched the yearly cycles from March 2009 into June of 2010, and this year the yearly cycle has stretched again to arrive in October. The market is now set up for the next yearly cycle low to occur in the fall of 2012, which, not surprisingly, is exactly when I have been expecting the next four year cycle low in stocks to bottom.
I have also indicated the expected timing band's for the next three intermediate degree cycle lows. For reasons explained in the nightly reports I don't think the current decline is going to move below the October low. I expect we will find a bottom sometime in the next 1-4 days followed by a Santa Claus rally into the middle of December. If the market avoids making a lower low it will embolden the Bulls to continue holding long positions. The hope for a miracle will be misplaced though as the market will almost certainly begin to roll over before making higher highs and by the next intermediate degree bottom in February/March we will see the October lows broken, and the summer 2010 lows tested.
The recent rally out of the October low will undoubtedly be the most powerful countertrend rally of this bear market. Any further countertrend rallies, and there will be several, are likely to be short-lived and weak. The window of opportunity for these long side trades are probably going to be too brief for the average investor/trader to successfully trade. From this point on investors should keep 401(k) accounts solely in money market funds until we reach the bottom sometime in the fall of 2012.
This brings us to the topic of gold. Despite what is happening in the stock market gold is clearly still in a secular bull market. That being said the days of easy money from the gold bull are probably over for the next year as stocks move down into their four year cycle low. In the chart below you can clearly see the affects QE1 & 2 had on the gold bull.
They drove the largest C-wave advance of this entire secular bull market. However, for reasons that I will explain below I think the C-wave topped in September and gold is now going to enter an extended consolidation phase for the next year.
That begs the question if the C-wave has topped then where was the D-wave? Well I think we just saw it in September. Let me explain.
Because of the massive liquidity floating around the world I now think the D-wave terminated with the overnight spike down to $1535 on September 26. I'm now seriously considering that the last D-wave was exceptionally mild because of the extreme global liquidity. If that is the case then gold has now entered an A-wave advance. As most of you know A-waves don't tend to make new highs. So my best guess is that gold will test the $1900 level sometime in the next three weeks followed by an extended corrective move down into an intermediate degree bottom in February (B-wave). That bottom should hold above the $1535 level. What should then follow will be a year long frustrating, whipsawing, consolidation that should terminate slightly before the stock market bottoms in the fall of 2012.
At that point gold will start to sniff out the next round of massive quantitative easing as the Fed and central banks around the world go into full panic mode and begin printing unimaginable amounts of money in the attempt to halt the global sovereign debt implosions and economic depression that will have developed. As usual central planners will not account for the unintended consequences of their actions. This time quantitative easing is going to have the opposite affect that it did in 2009. Yes it will put a bottom in stocks, at least temporarily, but it is also going accelerate the cancer that has now infected currency markets. And as currencies start to collapse so will global bond markets. This is the recipe for the final bubble phase in the gold bull market.
While gold is in this long consolidation phase/bear market phase for stocks, trading strategies will be vastly different than they were during QE1 and QE2. Trades are going to be shorter and there will be long periods of time where the correct strategy is to just sit in cash. I started to make the transition to this new trading strategy back in July. The recent breakdown in stocks has now eliminated any reservations I had about the bear market. With that confirmed, there is little doubt that gold has now entered an extended consolidation and that new trading strategies are called for.
Make no mistake, we are now entering what will be one of the toughest markets ever to make money in. So far the model portfolio is performing admirably even in these tough conditions.
For anyone who would like to sample the nightly premium newsletter, I have opened a $10 one week trial subscription. You will have full access to the SMT premium website including all historical archives, model portfolio, and terminology document for a full week. If during the week you decide the subscription is not for you, or the shorter term trading strategies don't suit you emotionally than simply cancel your subscription by following the directions on the homepage prior to your week expiring. If you do enjoy the newsletter then simply do nothing and your subscription will convert to a yearly membership at the end of the one week trial. Click here to link to the premium website. You will find the subscribe link on the upper right-hand side of the home page.
Back in April of this year I warned investors to get out of stocks in their 401(k) accounts. At the time the dollar was moving into the timing band for a major three year cycle low. It has always been my expectation that the rally out of that major bottom would correspond with the stock market moving down into the third bear market leg of the secular trend that has been in place since 2000. As we now know the dollar did bottom in May of this year and that did correspond with the top of the cyclical bull market that began in March of 2009. It has also been my expectation that the next four year cycle low would occur in the fall of 2012, and that 2012 would be one of the worst economic years in human history.
This is already starting to unfold across the globe as social unrest that began in the middle east has spread to Europe and now the United States. Economic data has been steadily eroding for months now. We should expect this trend to continue and intensify as we get into 2012.
As most of you know I use cycles analysis and sentiment to determine likely timing band's for major turns in the stock market, gold and the dollar. This is what allowed me to anticipate a bottom in the dollar cycle at a time when everyone was expecting the dollar to collapse, and a top in the stock market when everyone was bullish and expecting a move back to new highs.
An interesting development in the yearly cycle for the stock market has now emerged. Generally speaking most yearly cycles tend to run about 12 months trough to trough. However the Fed's quantitative easing programs have stretched the yearly cycles from March 2009 into June of 2010, and this year the yearly cycle has stretched again to arrive in October. The market is now set up for the next yearly cycle low to occur in the fall of 2012, which, not surprisingly, is exactly when I have been expecting the next four year cycle low in stocks to bottom.
I have also indicated the expected timing band's for the next three intermediate degree cycle lows. For reasons explained in the nightly reports I don't think the current decline is going to move below the October low. I expect we will find a bottom sometime in the next 1-4 days followed by a Santa Claus rally into the middle of December. If the market avoids making a lower low it will embolden the Bulls to continue holding long positions. The hope for a miracle will be misplaced though as the market will almost certainly begin to roll over before making higher highs and by the next intermediate degree bottom in February/March we will see the October lows broken, and the summer 2010 lows tested.
The recent rally out of the October low will undoubtedly be the most powerful countertrend rally of this bear market. Any further countertrend rallies, and there will be several, are likely to be short-lived and weak. The window of opportunity for these long side trades are probably going to be too brief for the average investor/trader to successfully trade. From this point on investors should keep 401(k) accounts solely in money market funds until we reach the bottom sometime in the fall of 2012.
This brings us to the topic of gold. Despite what is happening in the stock market gold is clearly still in a secular bull market. That being said the days of easy money from the gold bull are probably over for the next year as stocks move down into their four year cycle low. In the chart below you can clearly see the affects QE1 & 2 had on the gold bull.
They drove the largest C-wave advance of this entire secular bull market. However, for reasons that I will explain below I think the C-wave topped in September and gold is now going to enter an extended consolidation phase for the next year.
That begs the question if the C-wave has topped then where was the D-wave? Well I think we just saw it in September. Let me explain.
Because of the massive liquidity floating around the world I now think the D-wave terminated with the overnight spike down to $1535 on September 26. I'm now seriously considering that the last D-wave was exceptionally mild because of the extreme global liquidity. If that is the case then gold has now entered an A-wave advance. As most of you know A-waves don't tend to make new highs. So my best guess is that gold will test the $1900 level sometime in the next three weeks followed by an extended corrective move down into an intermediate degree bottom in February (B-wave). That bottom should hold above the $1535 level. What should then follow will be a year long frustrating, whipsawing, consolidation that should terminate slightly before the stock market bottoms in the fall of 2012.
At that point gold will start to sniff out the next round of massive quantitative easing as the Fed and central banks around the world go into full panic mode and begin printing unimaginable amounts of money in the attempt to halt the global sovereign debt implosions and economic depression that will have developed. As usual central planners will not account for the unintended consequences of their actions. This time quantitative easing is going to have the opposite affect that it did in 2009. Yes it will put a bottom in stocks, at least temporarily, but it is also going accelerate the cancer that has now infected currency markets. And as currencies start to collapse so will global bond markets. This is the recipe for the final bubble phase in the gold bull market.
While gold is in this long consolidation phase/bear market phase for stocks, trading strategies will be vastly different than they were during QE1 and QE2. Trades are going to be shorter and there will be long periods of time where the correct strategy is to just sit in cash. I started to make the transition to this new trading strategy back in July. The recent breakdown in stocks has now eliminated any reservations I had about the bear market. With that confirmed, there is little doubt that gold has now entered an extended consolidation and that new trading strategies are called for.
Make no mistake, we are now entering what will be one of the toughest markets ever to make money in. So far the model portfolio is performing admirably even in these tough conditions.
For anyone who would like to sample the nightly premium newsletter, I have opened a $10 one week trial subscription. You will have full access to the SMT premium website including all historical archives, model portfolio, and terminology document for a full week. If during the week you decide the subscription is not for you, or the shorter term trading strategies don't suit you emotionally than simply cancel your subscription by following the directions on the homepage prior to your week expiring. If you do enjoy the newsletter then simply do nothing and your subscription will convert to a yearly membership at the end of the one week trial. Click here to link to the premium website. You will find the subscribe link on the upper right-hand side of the home page.
22 Kasım 2011 Salı
Early Look: Q2 GDP Revised Lower
The market is under a bit of selling pressure in early trading after briefly bouncing into positive territory. The concerns out of Europe persist, and the failure by the Super Committee to do anything regarding the U.S. deficit hasn't helped sentiment.
Bond yields are slightly higher in Europe as the bond vigilantes continue to pressure those governments. The cost of insurance in the CDS market also continues to rise, not just in Europe but emerging market CDS prices are also moving up.
In economic data, the second revision of Q2 GDP was revised down to 2.0% from an initial estimate of 2.5%. There is not much else in the way of corporate and economic news this morning.
Asian markets were mixed overnight and Europe is actually higher this morning on bargain hunting. Oil prices are up near $98 and gold prices are higher to $1700 after getting hit hard yesterday.
The 10-year yield is flat near 1.96%; and the VIX is down a little to 32.55, fading back below its 50-day average.
Trading comment: With the SPX now below its 50-day average as well as its 200-day, traders will move to an even more defensive posture. The news backdrop is very negative right now, and that should push investor sentiment back towards the bearish side of the ledger. While there are few stocks breaking out here, this could be a good time to go back and look at those stocks that were breaking out after reporting earnings and have now pulled back. When the market does find its footing, those names will likely be the first to start moving higher again.
Bond yields are slightly higher in Europe as the bond vigilantes continue to pressure those governments. The cost of insurance in the CDS market also continues to rise, not just in Europe but emerging market CDS prices are also moving up.
In economic data, the second revision of Q2 GDP was revised down to 2.0% from an initial estimate of 2.5%. There is not much else in the way of corporate and economic news this morning.
Asian markets were mixed overnight and Europe is actually higher this morning on bargain hunting. Oil prices are up near $98 and gold prices are higher to $1700 after getting hit hard yesterday.
The 10-year yield is flat near 1.96%; and the VIX is down a little to 32.55, fading back below its 50-day average.
Trading comment: With the SPX now below its 50-day average as well as its 200-day, traders will move to an even more defensive posture. The news backdrop is very negative right now, and that should push investor sentiment back towards the bearish side of the ledger. While there are few stocks breaking out here, this could be a good time to go back and look at those stocks that were breaking out after reporting earnings and have now pulled back. When the market does find its footing, those names will likely be the first to start moving higher again.
The Dems and the Supercommittee Debate
Didn’t our Democratic friends always intend to derail the supercommittee over the top Bush tax rates? You remember that $800 billion revenue number always floating around from the Democratic leaks? Well, that’s the static-revenue estimate of repealing the 35 percent and 33 percent Bush rates. And sometimes that Democratic revenue number moved up to $1.2 trillion. Well, that would include the static-revenue estimate of the 5.6 percent millionaire surtax. Get it?
In an important sense, the whole supercommittee debate from the Democratic side was about taxing the rich. They never went quite as far as Obama’s populist class-warfare rant, at least not publically. But basically this logjam was about so-called tax fairness.
Ironically, when the automatic spending cuts trigger in, Speaker John Boehner will win out. His original vision -- going back to the debt-ceiling debate last summer -- was $1 in spending cuts for each $1 of debt increase. So the sequester will get $1.2 trillion in spending cuts on top of last summer’s $1 trillion.
No it’s not great. We should have done $4 trillion to $6 trillion by reforming entitlements and undergoing pro-growth tax reform for individuals and corporations. But at the end of the day, we dodged a super tax hike and got a couple trillion dollars of lower spending. Not the worst thing in the world.
In an important sense, the whole supercommittee debate from the Democratic side was about taxing the rich. They never went quite as far as Obama’s populist class-warfare rant, at least not publically. But basically this logjam was about so-called tax fairness.
Ironically, when the automatic spending cuts trigger in, Speaker John Boehner will win out. His original vision -- going back to the debt-ceiling debate last summer -- was $1 in spending cuts for each $1 of debt increase. So the sequester will get $1.2 trillion in spending cuts on top of last summer’s $1 trillion.
No it’s not great. We should have done $4 trillion to $6 trillion by reforming entitlements and undergoing pro-growth tax reform for individuals and corporations. But at the end of the day, we dodged a super tax hike and got a couple trillion dollars of lower spending. Not the worst thing in the world.
21 Kasım 2011 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings: All Policy, All The Time
All policy, all the time. That's how it feels in the markets right now. There is very little moving the market lately from a fundamental standpoint, but very large moves from anything policy related.
Most of the policy decisions have been coming out of Europe with respect to the debt problems facing the region. Today we have more of the same concerns, with Moody's adding some cautious comments about the outlook for France's debt rating.
But the failure of the deficit reduction committee here in the U.S. is also adding an element of uncertainty and disappointment in the markets. Our Congress sure doesn't seem to possess the ability to be able to reach any solutions about our own fiscal problems, and that's not pleasing to investors.
The flight to safety is on, with bond prices rising and pushing the 10-year yield down to 1.95%. The dollar is also higher relative to the euro, which is weighing on commodities. Oil prices are down near $95.75, and even gold prices are lower today to $1702. As for the VIX, it is up another 8% to 34.65, but not above last weeks' highs.
My quote screen is for the most part a sea of red this morning. One of the lone standouts on the upside is VRUS, a former long of ours but one which we sold earlier this year. VRUS is being acquired by GILD for $137, an 85% premium. Congrats if you held any of this.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 has now broken below its 50-day average as the selling pressure intensifies. While we could easily see a bounce this week, volume levels will be very light due to the holiday trading. With the credit indicators still flashing warning signs, I want to remain cautious here and try not to be aggressive. Let the market find some support and build a base from which to launch another trading rally. No need to be a hero, as bases take time to build.
long SH
Most of the policy decisions have been coming out of Europe with respect to the debt problems facing the region. Today we have more of the same concerns, with Moody's adding some cautious comments about the outlook for France's debt rating.
But the failure of the deficit reduction committee here in the U.S. is also adding an element of uncertainty and disappointment in the markets. Our Congress sure doesn't seem to possess the ability to be able to reach any solutions about our own fiscal problems, and that's not pleasing to investors.
The flight to safety is on, with bond prices rising and pushing the 10-year yield down to 1.95%. The dollar is also higher relative to the euro, which is weighing on commodities. Oil prices are down near $95.75, and even gold prices are lower today to $1702. As for the VIX, it is up another 8% to 34.65, but not above last weeks' highs.
My quote screen is for the most part a sea of red this morning. One of the lone standouts on the upside is VRUS, a former long of ours but one which we sold earlier this year. VRUS is being acquired by GILD for $137, an 85% premium. Congrats if you held any of this.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 has now broken below its 50-day average as the selling pressure intensifies. While we could easily see a bounce this week, volume levels will be very light due to the holiday trading. With the credit indicators still flashing warning signs, I want to remain cautious here and try not to be aggressive. Let the market find some support and build a base from which to launch another trading rally. No need to be a hero, as bases take time to build.
long SH
19 Kasım 2011 Cumartesi
Junk the Trigger? It's an X-Rated Option
Instead of a super tax hike from the supercommittee, a much better option for the economy and budget-cutting credibility would be to implement plan B, which is the automatic spending-cut trigger known as sequestration.
The Wall Street Journal editorial on the sequester scenario shows a roughly $70 billion budget cut in 2013 and probably more in the future as the budget baseline is pulled down. A $70 billion cut would be one of the largest on record -- maybe the largest. It would show real budget discipline. And it is vastly superior to the economy-killing $500 billion to $800 billion tax hike supported by Democrats who oppose true tax reform that would lower marginal rates and broaden the base.
But both parties are quaking in their boots over the automatic budget-cutting trigger.
I interviewed senator and supercommittee-member Pat Toomey last night on CNBC. He has the best tax-reform plan, which would drop the top rate to 28 percent, bring other rates down, and limit upper-income deductions and exemptions. Unfortunately, Sen. Toomey’s plan does not at this point appear to have bipartisan support.
Nevertheless, Toomey told me that the automatic trigger has big problems. Specifically, he noted that half the trigger would be concentrated on defense. Then he said, “In the very unfortunate event that our committee were not to be successful, and I still hope we will, but if not, then I think we would have a very concerted effort to reconfigure the sequestration.”
Mr. Toomey’s Republican colleagues undoubtedly agree with this reconfiguration. But you can bet the Democrats on the committee will not. So the only way out would be the most irresponsible way out: junking the automatic spending-cut trigger altogether.
And that option would be a disaster for financial markets. Stocks would plunge. Think back to last July and August during the debt-ceiling debate. Junking the trigger would be a fiscal blight and would mean a sure credit downgrade.
For those who worry about the defense problem, leave it to a post-election Congress that could provide a supplemental to add back some defense spending if necessary. All the budget issues will be revisited post-election anyway.
But junking the trigger would be a fiscal calamity for the United States. It’s an X-rated option. Don’t even think about it.
18 Kasım 2011 Cuma
HAS THE BEAR RETURNED?
The recent market action has me wondering if the next leg down in the cyclical bear market has begun.
I always expected that we would see a very convincing rally out of the October yearly cycle low. I thought it even possible that we would test the 200 day moving average. Most bear markets do rally out of the initial leg down and test the 200 day moving average.
Recently the S&P made two attempts to close and hold above the 200 day moving average. They both failed. That was a pretty loudly warning bell ringing.
As a matter fact every index, except the utilities, is now trading below its declining 200 day moving average, and that includes all the major European and Asian markets.
At the moment the major concern is that the market is now moving into the timing band for a major daily cycle low (due in the next 5 to 10 days). The current daily cycle is left translated (topped in less than 20 days). That is relevant because most of the time left translated cycles move below their prior cycle bottom. The last cycle low occurred in October at 1075. Now I'm not suggesting that the stock market is going to crash below 1075 in the next 5 to 7 days. However the S&P has broken below the 1220 support zone. When support was broken in July it led to a seven-day 17% crash.
I don't know if breaking of support this time will lead to another climax selling event or not. I do know that the market is now in the timing band for some serious selling. I know that this is beginning to look like a counter trend rally in a bear market that is in the process of topping. And if that's true then we are in the period of time when the next leg down should begin.
Confirming this is the fact that the dollar index has rallied back above the 200 day moving average and completed an intermediate cycle bottom. The dollar index is currently on only the third week of this new intermediate cycle. Those cycles tend to run about 20 weeks, so there is potentially many more weeks of upside left before the dollar moves down into another significant correction, which presumably would drive the next bear market rally in stocks.
The safest position at this time is to be in cash, and that's exactly what I did with the model portfolio yesterday morning.
I always expected that we would see a very convincing rally out of the October yearly cycle low. I thought it even possible that we would test the 200 day moving average. Most bear markets do rally out of the initial leg down and test the 200 day moving average.
Recently the S&P made two attempts to close and hold above the 200 day moving average. They both failed. That was a pretty loudly warning bell ringing.
As a matter fact every index, except the utilities, is now trading below its declining 200 day moving average, and that includes all the major European and Asian markets.
At the moment the major concern is that the market is now moving into the timing band for a major daily cycle low (due in the next 5 to 10 days). The current daily cycle is left translated (topped in less than 20 days). That is relevant because most of the time left translated cycles move below their prior cycle bottom. The last cycle low occurred in October at 1075. Now I'm not suggesting that the stock market is going to crash below 1075 in the next 5 to 7 days. However the S&P has broken below the 1220 support zone. When support was broken in July it led to a seven-day 17% crash.
I don't know if breaking of support this time will lead to another climax selling event or not. I do know that the market is now in the timing band for some serious selling. I know that this is beginning to look like a counter trend rally in a bear market that is in the process of topping. And if that's true then we are in the period of time when the next leg down should begin.
Confirming this is the fact that the dollar index has rallied back above the 200 day moving average and completed an intermediate cycle bottom. The dollar index is currently on only the third week of this new intermediate cycle. Those cycles tend to run about 20 weeks, so there is potentially many more weeks of upside left before the dollar moves down into another significant correction, which presumably would drive the next bear market rally in stocks.
The safest position at this time is to be in cash, and that's exactly what I did with the model portfolio yesterday morning.
TGIF - The Song Remains The Same
The news backdrop is little changed today. Concerns about the sovereign debt issues in Europe have eased just a touch on the comments by new ECB Pres Draghi who urged officials to move to make progress on the bailout plans.
Bond yields in Europe have stopped rising for the moment. Italian yields are at 6.68%, Spain is down a little to 6.43%, and France is also lower near 3.56%. And the euro is also getting another bounce today.
Commodities are mostly higher. The CRB index is up 0.5%; Gold prices are up a bit to $1725; silver and copper prices are also higher; but oil prices have slipped back to $98.50. With the global economy still slowing, it seemed odd that oil could keep up its recent trajectory that took it back above $100.
So far the materials stocks are leading the early action, while tech is lagging for a second day.
The 10-year is hovering right at that psychological 2.00% level; and the VIX which surged above 35 yesterday has pulled back -4% so far back near the 33 level. I have mentioned repeatedly that the VIX remaining stubbornly above the 30 level was indicating volatility would creep back into the market. I think some of the sharp pullbacks we've seen in the last week are prime examples.
Trading comment: It is said in the market that from failed moves come fast moves. I think that applies to yesterday's selloff. After the SPX broke that uptrend line that I have been watching, selling in the market picked up steam and the SPX quickly fell towards its 50-day average. This is a first area to look for support, around the 1205-06 area. Unfortunately, we have more policy decisions that will color the action coming up. The "Super Committee" as its called is supposed to vote on budget cuts and I think very few people if any think that they will actually be proactive in coming up with a proposal that will please the markets. Color me skeptical.
Bond yields in Europe have stopped rising for the moment. Italian yields are at 6.68%, Spain is down a little to 6.43%, and France is also lower near 3.56%. And the euro is also getting another bounce today.
Commodities are mostly higher. The CRB index is up 0.5%; Gold prices are up a bit to $1725; silver and copper prices are also higher; but oil prices have slipped back to $98.50. With the global economy still slowing, it seemed odd that oil could keep up its recent trajectory that took it back above $100.
So far the materials stocks are leading the early action, while tech is lagging for a second day.
The 10-year is hovering right at that psychological 2.00% level; and the VIX which surged above 35 yesterday has pulled back -4% so far back near the 33 level. I have mentioned repeatedly that the VIX remaining stubbornly above the 30 level was indicating volatility would creep back into the market. I think some of the sharp pullbacks we've seen in the last week are prime examples.
Trading comment: It is said in the market that from failed moves come fast moves. I think that applies to yesterday's selloff. After the SPX broke that uptrend line that I have been watching, selling in the market picked up steam and the SPX quickly fell towards its 50-day average. This is a first area to look for support, around the 1205-06 area. Unfortunately, we have more policy decisions that will color the action coming up. The "Super Committee" as its called is supposed to vote on budget cuts and I think very few people if any think that they will actually be proactive in coming up with a proposal that will please the markets. Color me skeptical.
The U.S. Is Stronger than Most Folks Think
You wouldn’t know it from yesterday’s down day in the stock market. But the daily numbers continue to show an economy that is stronger than most folks think.
Today, for example, initial jobless claims fell to 388,000 -- the lowest level in seven months. And the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which translates to 53 on an ISM basis, shows a very strong employment component.
Earlier in the week, the index of industrial production beat estimates with an especially strong reading on business equipment. That spells strong capital-goods investment, itself a job creator.
Retail sales in October also beat estimates, and are rising over 7 percent against year-ago. Both producer and consumer price inflation dropped slightly in October.
Smart economists like John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros are predicting 3 percent real GDP for Q4. Another luminary, Joe LaVorgna, thinks GDP could actually be 4 percent for the quarter ending in December.
All these better readings continue to clash with market pessimism over Europe’s debt and banking problems. Today on CNBC, however, St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard said the European problem will be contained, and that it won’t have much effect on the U.S. economy.
And eminent economist Art Laffer believes the new Italian government run by Mario Monti is putting together a pro-growth economic plan to extend the retirement age of public workers, knock out 300,000 government-sector jobs, overhaul the tax system, and privatize state-owned properties. Laffer believes Monti, the former European commissioner for taxes, favors pro-growth reform and simplification. Laffer also thinks Germany will knock its budget deficit under 3 percent, with spending cuts combined with a small tax cut.
In other words, the European story may not be quite as bad as the bond-market vigilantes believe.
There’s no question that the Eurozone is close to recession, and that many of its members still have massive work to do. They need to live within their means, thwart the social-welfare entitlement system, and curb government-union excess. Plus there’s the need for flatter-tax simplification to promote growth.
But I can’t help but think that whatever the state of decline in Europe may be, it is the U.S. that ultimately will benefit. Despite the class-warfare mistakes coming out of Washington and a weak-kneed supercommittee, political regime change is coming. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is more resilient and perhaps even stronger than people think.
Today, for example, initial jobless claims fell to 388,000 -- the lowest level in seven months. And the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which translates to 53 on an ISM basis, shows a very strong employment component.
Earlier in the week, the index of industrial production beat estimates with an especially strong reading on business equipment. That spells strong capital-goods investment, itself a job creator.
Retail sales in October also beat estimates, and are rising over 7 percent against year-ago. Both producer and consumer price inflation dropped slightly in October.
Smart economists like John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros are predicting 3 percent real GDP for Q4. Another luminary, Joe LaVorgna, thinks GDP could actually be 4 percent for the quarter ending in December.
All these better readings continue to clash with market pessimism over Europe’s debt and banking problems. Today on CNBC, however, St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard said the European problem will be contained, and that it won’t have much effect on the U.S. economy.
And eminent economist Art Laffer believes the new Italian government run by Mario Monti is putting together a pro-growth economic plan to extend the retirement age of public workers, knock out 300,000 government-sector jobs, overhaul the tax system, and privatize state-owned properties. Laffer believes Monti, the former European commissioner for taxes, favors pro-growth reform and simplification. Laffer also thinks Germany will knock its budget deficit under 3 percent, with spending cuts combined with a small tax cut.
In other words, the European story may not be quite as bad as the bond-market vigilantes believe.
There’s no question that the Eurozone is close to recession, and that many of its members still have massive work to do. They need to live within their means, thwart the social-welfare entitlement system, and curb government-union excess. Plus there’s the need for flatter-tax simplification to promote growth.
But I can’t help but think that whatever the state of decline in Europe may be, it is the U.S. that ultimately will benefit. Despite the class-warfare mistakes coming out of Washington and a weak-kneed supercommittee, political regime change is coming. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is more resilient and perhaps even stronger than people think.
17 Kasım 2011 Perşembe
Five Lessons for America from the European Fiscal Crisis
Here's a very timely video on Europe's fiscal crisis, narrated by an Italian student who was an intern at Cato Institute. The text is written by Dan Mitchell, a senior fellow at Cato and a top expert on tax reform and supply-side tax policy.
I’ve written about the fiscal implosion in Europe and warned that America faces the same fate if we don’t reform poorly designed entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.
But this new video from the Center for Freedom and Prosperity, narrated by an Italian student and former Cato Institute intern, may be the best explanation of what went wrong in Europe and what should happen in the United States to avoid a similar meltdown.
particularly like the five lessons she identifies.
1. Higher taxes lead to higher spending, not lower deficits. Miss Morandotti looks at the evidence from Europe and shows that politicians almost always claim that higher taxes will be used to reduce red ink, but the inevitable result is bigger government. This is a lesson that gullible Republicans need to learn – especially since some of them want to acquiesce to a tax hike as part of the “Supercommitee” negotiations.
2. A value-added tax would be a disaster. This was music to my ears since I have repeatedly warned that the statists won’t be able to impose a European-style welfare state in the United States without first imposing this European-style money machine for big government.
3. A welfare state cripples the human spirit. This was the point eloquently made by Hadley Heath of the Independent Women’s Forum in a recent video.
4. Nations reach a point of no return when the number of people mooching off government exceeds the number of people producing. Indeed, Miss Morandotti drew these two cartoons showing how the welfare state inevitably leads to fiscal collapse.
5. Bailouts don’t work. This also was a powerful lesson. Imagine how much better things would be in Europe if Greece never received an initial bailout. Much less money would have been flushed down the toilet and this tough-love approach would have sent a very positive message to nations such as Portugal, Italy, and Spain about the danger of continued excessive spending.
If I was doing this video, I would have added one more message. If nations want a return to fiscal sanity, they need to follow “Mitchell’s Golden Rule,” which simply states that the private sector should grow faster than the government.
This rule is not overly demanding (spending actually should be substantially cut, including elimination of departments such as HUD, Transportation, Education, Agriculture, etc), but if maintained over a lengthy period will eliminate all red ink. More importantly, it will reduce the burden of government spending relative to the productive sector of the economy.
Unfortunately, the politicians have done precisely the wrong thing during the Bush-Obama spending binge. Government has grown faster than the private sector. This is why this new video is so timely. Europe is collapsing before our eyes, yet the political elite in Washington think it’s okay to maintain business-as-usual policies.
I’ve written about the fiscal implosion in Europe and warned that America faces the same fate if we don’t reform poorly designed entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.
But this new video from the Center for Freedom and Prosperity, narrated by an Italian student and former Cato Institute intern, may be the best explanation of what went wrong in Europe and what should happen in the United States to avoid a similar meltdown.
particularly like the five lessons she identifies.
1. Higher taxes lead to higher spending, not lower deficits. Miss Morandotti looks at the evidence from Europe and shows that politicians almost always claim that higher taxes will be used to reduce red ink, but the inevitable result is bigger government. This is a lesson that gullible Republicans need to learn – especially since some of them want to acquiesce to a tax hike as part of the “Supercommitee” negotiations.
2. A value-added tax would be a disaster. This was music to my ears since I have repeatedly warned that the statists won’t be able to impose a European-style welfare state in the United States without first imposing this European-style money machine for big government.
3. A welfare state cripples the human spirit. This was the point eloquently made by Hadley Heath of the Independent Women’s Forum in a recent video.
4. Nations reach a point of no return when the number of people mooching off government exceeds the number of people producing. Indeed, Miss Morandotti drew these two cartoons showing how the welfare state inevitably leads to fiscal collapse.
5. Bailouts don’t work. This also was a powerful lesson. Imagine how much better things would be in Europe if Greece never received an initial bailout. Much less money would have been flushed down the toilet and this tough-love approach would have sent a very positive message to nations such as Portugal, Italy, and Spain about the danger of continued excessive spending.
If I was doing this video, I would have added one more message. If nations want a return to fiscal sanity, they need to follow “Mitchell’s Golden Rule,” which simply states that the private sector should grow faster than the government.
This rule is not overly demanding (spending actually should be substantially cut, including elimination of departments such as HUD, Transportation, Education, Agriculture, etc), but if maintained over a lengthy period will eliminate all red ink. More importantly, it will reduce the burden of government spending relative to the productive sector of the economy.
Unfortunately, the politicians have done precisely the wrong thing during the Bush-Obama spending binge. Government has grown faster than the private sector. This is why this new video is so timely. Europe is collapsing before our eyes, yet the political elite in Washington think it’s okay to maintain business-as-usual policies.
Early Look: Can The U.S. Start To Decouple From Europe
The market had another down open this morning, but as of this post the Dow is back in positive territory. Asian markets were mixed overnight, while Europe is again lower today.
The latest news out of Europe was a disappointing debt auction in Spain. Spanish yields are up to 6.70%, and French yields are a bit higher near 3.71%. Italian yields have eased a touch to 6.97%. Interestingly, the euro is higher on the day.
But the higher euro isn't helping commodities so far. Oil prices are down to a still high $101; gold prices are lower again near $1745; and silver and copper prices are lower as well.
In economic news, jobless claims came in better than expected at 388,000 for the week. And housing starts for October were also greater than expected at 628,000.
The 10-year yield is hovering right at the 2.00% level; and the VIX bounced to 34 where it touched its overhead 50-day average and has since eased back to 32.90.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 has broken below that uptrend level that I showed yesterday (on my blog) and that has been in place since early October. That usually signals more of a correction in store. But I am beginning to wonder if the U.S. markets have priced in the problems in Europe and can manage to climb the wall of worry a bit more into year end. As such, I want to be a buyer on upcoming dips and position myself for further rallies. Of course, this is predicated on nothing further unraveling in Europe. They still need to figure out how to achieve the proposed leverage for the EFSF that has been talked about.
The latest news out of Europe was a disappointing debt auction in Spain. Spanish yields are up to 6.70%, and French yields are a bit higher near 3.71%. Italian yields have eased a touch to 6.97%. Interestingly, the euro is higher on the day.
But the higher euro isn't helping commodities so far. Oil prices are down to a still high $101; gold prices are lower again near $1745; and silver and copper prices are lower as well.
In economic news, jobless claims came in better than expected at 388,000 for the week. And housing starts for October were also greater than expected at 628,000.
The 10-year yield is hovering right at the 2.00% level; and the VIX bounced to 34 where it touched its overhead 50-day average and has since eased back to 32.90.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 has broken below that uptrend level that I showed yesterday (on my blog) and that has been in place since early October. That usually signals more of a correction in store. But I am beginning to wonder if the U.S. markets have priced in the problems in Europe and can manage to climb the wall of worry a bit more into year end. As such, I want to be a buyer on upcoming dips and position myself for further rallies. Of course, this is predicated on nothing further unraveling in Europe. They still need to figure out how to achieve the proposed leverage for the EFSF that has been talked about.
16 Kasım 2011 Çarşamba
Chart of the Day: Holding support
Not sure how well you can make out the chart below (you can click on it to enlarge). It is a snapshot from my trading software. On the right hand side, you can see the purple trendline I have drawn in highlighting the recent uptrend that the market has been holding since early October.
Today's pullback is testing that uptrend line again and needs to hold. If this support is broken, it could mean a larger correction is in store.
The news that took the market down in the last hour was comments by Fitch that the Eurozone contagion poses a threat to U.S. bank ratings. Umm...is this new news?
Today's pullback is testing that uptrend line again and needs to hold. If this support is broken, it could mean a larger correction is in store.
The news that took the market down in the last hour was comments by Fitch that the Eurozone contagion poses a threat to U.S. bank ratings. Umm...is this new news?Early Look: Dour Sentiment Drives Soft Market Open
The market is lower again in early trading. Yesterday we saw a weak market open that improved as the day wore on. So far, we have already seen a nice bounce since the open, but there is still a lot of time left in today's session.
Asia and European markets were both lower overnight. Italy's bond yields are higher at 7.13%; Spain's yields are up to 6.41%; and France's yields have drifted higher to 3.68%. The euro is also lower so far today.
The lower euro is weighing on most commodities, but oil prices continue to climb. Oil prices have now topped $100 for the first time in 5 months (currently $101.80). Gold prices are lower today near $1763. Silver and copper prices are also lower.
In corporate news, Target (TGT) reported solid results and its stock is higher. Abercrombie (ANF) disappointed and its stocks is getting whacked. While DELL was mixed and its stocks is down slightly.
In economic news, the CPI fell in October by 0.1%. But year-over-year the overall CPI is up +3.5%, which is pretty high. Inflation is funny right now. Wages, rents, housing prices, and tech products are pretty flat in pricing. But food prices, education, and healthcare costs have all continued to rise.
The 10-year yield is flirting with that 2.00% level again, but holding so far at 2.02%. As for the VIX, it is up another 2% near the 32 level.
Trading comment: The pressures in the credit markets and in Europe have not lifted one bit. So it does feel like our markets are being a bit complacent relative to the troubling signals that continue to come out of the region. The SPX is holding above its uptrend line that has been in place since early October, but the trading ranges are narrowing such that traders expect a breakout soon from this narrowing range. The SPX needs to hold the 1240 level on pullbacks, while a breakout above 1265-1270 could spark additional buying and short covering.
Asia and European markets were both lower overnight. Italy's bond yields are higher at 7.13%; Spain's yields are up to 6.41%; and France's yields have drifted higher to 3.68%. The euro is also lower so far today.
The lower euro is weighing on most commodities, but oil prices continue to climb. Oil prices have now topped $100 for the first time in 5 months (currently $101.80). Gold prices are lower today near $1763. Silver and copper prices are also lower.
In corporate news, Target (TGT) reported solid results and its stock is higher. Abercrombie (ANF) disappointed and its stocks is getting whacked. While DELL was mixed and its stocks is down slightly.
In economic news, the CPI fell in October by 0.1%. But year-over-year the overall CPI is up +3.5%, which is pretty high. Inflation is funny right now. Wages, rents, housing prices, and tech products are pretty flat in pricing. But food prices, education, and healthcare costs have all continued to rise.
The 10-year yield is flirting with that 2.00% level again, but holding so far at 2.02%. As for the VIX, it is up another 2% near the 32 level.
Trading comment: The pressures in the credit markets and in Europe have not lifted one bit. So it does feel like our markets are being a bit complacent relative to the troubling signals that continue to come out of the region. The SPX is holding above its uptrend line that has been in place since early October, but the trading ranges are narrowing such that traders expect a breakout soon from this narrowing range. The SPX needs to hold the 1240 level on pullbacks, while a breakout above 1265-1270 could spark additional buying and short covering.
Super Committee Co-Chair: Tax Hikes Won't Happen
The 12 member congressional “super committee” is still working on a deficit deal, but Co-chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) said on the Kudlow Report that "super" tax hikes will not be part of any compromise.
“We’re facing a jobs crisis and a debt crisis,” he said. “We’re certainly not going to exacerbate one by trying to address the other. Frankly, that’s one of the reasons we are stymied at the moment.”
Hensarling denied any knowledge of what the Wall Street Journal said was a plan for $300 billion in tax revenues up front and $500 billion in tax revenues later.
“As the co-chairman of the committee, I don’t know what agreement you are talking about," he said. "It certainly hasn’t been presented to me.”
The super committee has until November 23rd to agree on a plan to cut the federal deficit. The legislation that established the panel of six Democrats and six Republicans put in place an enforcement mechanism that will trigger automatic cuts if the committee fails to reach an agreement on $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts over 10years.
Hensarling told me that Republicans have gone as far as they feel they can go.
“We put $250 billion of what is known as static revenue on the table, but only if we can bring down rates,” he said.
Hensarling believes they can bring down the top individual tax rate to between 28 and 30 percent and the corporate rate to 25 percent.
"On balance, we think that would be pro-growth," he added. "But, listen, any penny of increased static revenue is a step in the wrong direction. We can only balance that with pro-growth reforms. And, frankly, the Democrats have never agreed to that.”
15 Kasım 2011 Salı
To Be Yourself Is To Be Perfect
I'm house-sitting for my friends Phil and Ann, with a couple dogs and fish in the outskirts of Moab. I don't get into town often on a dysfunctional bicycle, leaving me time to practice guitar and philosophize. I'm going to philosophize about religion a lot in this post. Religion contains the memes that drive whole cultures, including influencing those who are not religious. Religion is the most powerful tool for influencing culture there is, for good and for bad. I know, it's usually bad. But I'm taking a chance with it again.
Generosity is Artificial Institution,
Re-generosity is Life!
I've been involved in some activist movements sprouting up in Moab. And I just attended a weekend permaculture workshop taught for free to all by Joel Glanzberg from New Mexico, offered through Moab's local Community Rebuilds. It was amazingly inspiring.
I'm feeling in my bones that permaculture is a key to bring in gift economy, for whole populations to live moneyless. I've never honestly cared for traditional agriculture, which I'm sure arose with money and barter, and was the beginning of our imbalance. My ideal has been the hunter-gatherer model, which obviously wouldn't work today without a major die-off of people. That leaves us permaculture, which is about creating a self-regenerating system, not only of agriculture, but of everything connected to it. Machinery is generation. Life is regeneration.
This got me super excited, taking the principles of permaculture into social interaction:
Generation is generosity (which we see as a virtue).
Regeneration is re-generosity - Gifts that keep giving.
Generosity is a thing of artificial institutions.
Re-generosity is a thing of living communities!
This all connects with things I've been philosophizing on for a long time:
To Be or Not to Be, that is the Question
There is one and only one reason we are imbalanced and our world is messed up:
we are not being ourselves!
Our true selves are perfect.
To be yourself is to be perfect.
Be. Perfect. Even as I Am. Perfect.
I'm talking about every single human as well as every single living thing in the world.
Is this unrealistically-optimistic thinking? Before you judge it so, and even if you think your religion teaches that humans are inherently evil or flawed, from an ancient idea of "Original Sin," I ask you to hear me out.
The Virus of Wrong
Just the other day I had a debate with a friend. He says not everybody knows what’s right and wrong. But we both know he knows everybody knows what’s right and wrong, but we pretend we don’t know. Our pretense is so refined we convince ourselves we don’t know we're doing something wrong, and we pretend we don’t know that people don’t know that they’re doing something wrong! This is how the virus of wrong excuses and perpetuates itself.
Whenever you find somebody doing something that both you and they know is disagreeable, you usually hear, “I’m just doing my job”, or, “That’s how business works.” Everybody then goes silent, as if this were a valid argument for doing wrong. But just the fact we say "I'm just doing my job" or "that's business" shows positively we know it's wrong. The idea of excuse comes from the sense of wrong. And this shows society has a common, unspoken agreement. We’ve agreed that business trumps truth. We believe Mammon is more powerful than Truth. We say we believe in God, but our actions prove we believe Mammon is greater than God, meaning we believe Mammon to be the only God.
But maybe it's not so simple. People have families to feed and rent to pay, after all. Over and over I hear this: “I don’t like doing this, but I have to make a living.” Or, “I don’t agree with this, but I have a family to feed.”
In other words, we are not ourselves, because we think we have no choice.
We believe ourselves so helpless that our actions are dependent upon our employers, leaders, corporations, the drugs of our addictions.
Do you see it?
We have given up all responsibility for ourselves.
It's strange how this would be considered radical: What if we all decided to simply be ourselves? I mean total sincerity.
What if we decided we’d rather lose our jobs or starve or die or be ostracized than to not be ourselves?
With full confidence I say we can never be happy and at peace until we're willing to give up all to be ourselves. To be ourselves, we must give up all that we think is ourselves, all that we think we possess. Our true selves possess absolutely nothing, and when we realize this, we are completely free (un-possessed by anything or anybody, un-possessed by the thought of possession).
Lungs that possess air cannot breathe.
What if we did everything, I mean every thing, not because we are getting paid, or for the credit of peers, or because we want to barter for something else, but simply because our hearts tell us to do?
We Think We Need Authority
And why do you not judge for yourselves what is right? (--Jesus)
Why are rabbits and ants and monkeys able to manage themselves and know what to eat or not eat, when to have sex, where to go, without bosses or governing authorities or contracts, without scriptures or instruction manuals or schools? “Consider the ant… who has no boss, no overseer or ruler.”
If they can manage themselves and we think we cannot, why, then, do we consider ourselves more intelligent than other animals?
When I say this, many professed Christians often respond, “but we’re born in sin, have a fallen nature. We're evil, flawed.” They say it’s hopeless, and all we can do is wait for Jesus to come and rapture us away from this mess, completely ignoring the most basic of all basic Christian doctrines, that "Christ is in you, the hope of glory." The usual religion gets us hoping for a future reward and day of recompense. Stacking up credit. This idea of original sin has had a grip on western civilization for eons.
But, as one who was raised under evangelical Christian doctrine, having intensely studied the Bible since I could first read, I ask, is this really Christian doctrine? Does it bear good fruit? Is it Jewish doctrine? Is it any religion's doctrine? Since the Bible is the world’s most common book, a meme driving civilization, that doesn’t look like it’s going away anytime soon, let’s shine some light on its principle doctrines.
“Original Sin”
The very first chapter of the Bible says everything God creates is good, and after Adam (male and female) is created, all creation is pronounced not just good, but very good. Very good is the Seventh Good, the Complete Good. Adam (male and female) is created in the Image of God. Yes, the most fundamental message is that the Image of God is our true nature, and the Image of God is perfect goodness. It’s that simple, the very foundation of all that follows! The next chapter of Genesis proceeds to describe the fall from our True Nature. It’s a simple description of how we decided to try to be something other than ourselves.
Sin means debt. And the "original sin" we've inherited is no more our nature than a debt we inherit from our parents' estate. We've inherited a way of thinking, consciousness of credit and debt, which can be changed. Our innate nature cannot be changed.
When we do for the sake of doing, we return to our true nature. The doing itself is the fruit, the reward in itself, enjoying right now. Because it's always here, not future, it is fruit everlasting, the fruit of the Tree of Life. It's the bread of life that perpetually satisfies. When we act for the sake of getting something in the future, our fruit is forever future, never truly attainable, fickle, the fruit of the Tree of Consciousness of Credit and Debt, knowledge of Good and Evil. If you doubt this is what the Garden of Eden story is about, you may want to read “The Seven-Headed Dragon: World Commerce ” in the website, showing how the Hebrew text confirms these things.
The Core Principle of the World's Religions
Giving up consciousness of credit and debt, giving up working for the sake of future credit, is the core principle of the world’s religions. If the Kingdom of Heaven is at hand, as Jesus constantly teaches in the Gospels, rather than some future far-away place, then we work for Present Reward, and our work is the reward. Then we are content in whatever state we are. Invariably, good ideas are hijacked by the marketing mentality and take on opposite meaning. Marketing mentality turned the present Kingdom of Heaven into some future heaven that really will never ever come. Notice how we are so programmed that when we find something beautiful, the first thought in our heads is, “we could make a lot of money from that.” Always thinking about future heaven.
When our doing is its own reward, this is when we become real, Real, Royal. And we can say, I Am What I Am, no more, no less.
I Am What I Am
The Way, the Truth, and the Life
This is a doctrine you can prove for yourself by direct experience. There is no way to Peace, no way to Perfection, no way to Harmony except being exactly who you are, when you can say in perfect truth and confidence, I Am What I Am! When you are who you are, you are the Light of the World. Jesus said both: “I am the Light of the world,” and “You are the Light of the world.” The slave of the system will ask you, “So who sent you?” “What religion?” What authority?” “What scripture?” “What organization?” “Who employs you?” If you want to short out their brain circuits: simply say, "I Am What I Am; no one else sent me." The only way to say this is to simply Be, with or without talk.
When we leave the System of Slavery and escape to the Wilderness where there is no money, no government, our eyes suddenly open to the Burning Bush, and we finally hear our Name, the Name by which all life is called, I Am What I Am. And we will understand true human nature and love it so much we will want to return to our fellow humans whose true natures are oppressed under slavery. And we will proclaim the Name, I am what I am, liberating us to say, “Let my people go.”
Only when I am who I am can I ever see you for who you are. This is love. If I can't see my neighbor as myself, I can't love my neighbor. It is utterly impossible for me to love you if I am not myself, if I’m trying to be something else or trying to be what I think you want. When I am who I am, I am love. Love is the Way, the Truth, and the Life. There is no other way. Love is the one and only Image of God. Love is God incarnate, here and now, your True Nature, here in the flesh. I am who I am, the Name above all names, the name by which every created thing is called. All other names are just words, illusion. "The name that can be uttered is not the Eternal Name" (Tao Te Ching 1).
The Quran mysteriously repeats a story several times of how God made Adam from dust, then after breathing the Spirit into him, commanded the angels to bow down to Adam (Quran 2:34,7:11, 15:29, 20:116. [Note how this is the Quran's commentary on the same idea in the Bible, Hebrews 1:6, even to the point of referring to the angels as fire]) . Everybody bowed except Satan. The Quran says over and over to worship, to bow, only to God (2:83, 3:64, 7:206, 16:49, 22:77, 25:60, etc). Satan, appearing to be righteous, refused to bow, because he saw only dust, only flesh (15:33, 7:12).
Once I perfect him, and blow into him from My Spirit, you shall fall prostrate before him
(Quran 15:29)
Lo! the likeness of Jesus with Allah is as the likeness of Adam. He created him of dust, then He said unto him: Be! and he is.
(Quran 3:59)
In other words,
If there is a good store of Virtue, nothing is impossible.
If nothing is impossible, there are no limits.
If a person knows no limits, he is fit to be Ruler.
(Tao Te Ching 59)
Why is the sea King of a hundred streams?
Because it lies below them.
If the Sage would guide the people,
He must serve with humility.
If he would lead them,
He must follow behind.
In this way when the Sage is Ruler
The people will not feel oppressed;
When he stands before them,
They will not be harmed.
The whole world will support him
And will not tire of him.
(Tao Te Ching 66)
And he sat down, called the twelve, and said to them,
"If anyone desires to be first,
he shall be last of all and slave of all."
Then he took a little child and set him in the midst of them.
And when he had taken him in his arms, he said to them,
"Whoever receives one of these little children
in my name receives me;
and whoever receives me,
receives not me but him who sent me."
(Mark 9:35-37)
Do you believe in that cross hanging around your neck?
He who takes upon himself the humiliation of the people
is fit to rule them
He who takes upon himself the country’s disasters
deserves to be King of the Universe.
(Tao Te Ching 78)
This is where faith and the Cross come in. Do you really believe in that cross hanging around your neck?
This is starkly clear in religion. The ethical teachings of Jesus, Buddha, Lao Tzu, Krishna, for example, are the same. All teach giving up possessions, all teach loving enemies, all teach overcoming evil with good, all teach keeping the mind in the present. But as soon as somebody says, “I am a Christian” or “I am Muslim”, etc., they become ego, false, actors, hypocrites. They identify themselves by what the other is not. A self-proclaimed Christian, for example, is willing to completely trample on his or her own Jesus’ teachings in order to not be like Buddhists or Hindus. This is why Christ’s fundamental teachings are mysteriously absent from classic"Bible-believing" churches. This is why even the self-proclaimed Christian’s own Bible forbids taking on labels, including the label "Christian."
Our actions tell who we are, not our labels, not affiliations. By doing nothing more than being myself, I declare the unspeakable Name, when I am who I am. All energy, all liberation, all reality derives from simply Being. How can we think we can be anything else than Who We Are?
Generosity is Artificial Institution,
Re-generosity is Life!
I've been involved in some activist movements sprouting up in Moab. And I just attended a weekend permaculture workshop taught for free to all by Joel Glanzberg from New Mexico, offered through Moab's local Community Rebuilds. It was amazingly inspiring.
This got me super excited, taking the principles of permaculture into social interaction:
Generation is generosity (which we see as a virtue).
Regeneration is re-generosity - Gifts that keep giving.
Generosity is a thing of artificial institutions.
Re-generosity is a thing of living communities!
Generosity has a sense of self-righteousness, self-credit. "I did my good deed for the day", stacking up credit points.
Re-generosity is perpetual giving, such as breathing, having no consciousness of credits or debt. You don't expect praise for every lungful of carbon dioxide you freely give to the world, you just egolessly do it. And you don't feel guilty about every lungful of oxygen you take. Generosity comes from stores of excess, from possession. In re-generosity, there is no possession, only perpetual flow.
It makes no sense to "own" air in your lungs.
When you own nothing, there is no effort in giving, no sense of self-righteousness.
Life is not a charity, it is constant giving.
Re-generosity is perpetual giving, such as breathing, having no consciousness of credits or debt. You don't expect praise for every lungful of carbon dioxide you freely give to the world, you just egolessly do it. And you don't feel guilty about every lungful of oxygen you take. Generosity comes from stores of excess, from possession. In re-generosity, there is no possession, only perpetual flow.
It makes no sense to "own" air in your lungs.
When you own nothing, there is no effort in giving, no sense of self-righteousness.
Life is not a charity, it is constant giving.
Permaculture is allowing everything to be its natural self, for greater efficiency and productivity with minimal effort, as all of nature works.
This all connects with things I've been philosophizing on for a long time:
To Be or Not to Be, that is the Question
There is one and only one reason we are imbalanced and our world is messed up:
we are not being ourselves!
Our true selves are perfect.
To be yourself is to be perfect.
Be. Perfect. Even as I Am. Perfect.
I'm talking about every single human as well as every single living thing in the world.
Is this unrealistically-optimistic thinking? Before you judge it so, and even if you think your religion teaches that humans are inherently evil or flawed, from an ancient idea of "Original Sin," I ask you to hear me out.
The Virus of Wrong
Just the other day I had a debate with a friend. He says not everybody knows what’s right and wrong. But we both know he knows everybody knows what’s right and wrong, but we pretend we don’t know. Our pretense is so refined we convince ourselves we don’t know we're doing something wrong, and we pretend we don’t know that people don’t know that they’re doing something wrong! This is how the virus of wrong excuses and perpetuates itself.
 |
| Mammon from Dungeons & Dragons |
Whenever you find somebody doing something that both you and they know is disagreeable, you usually hear, “I’m just doing my job”, or, “That’s how business works.” Everybody then goes silent, as if this were a valid argument for doing wrong. But just the fact we say "I'm just doing my job" or "that's business" shows positively we know it's wrong. The idea of excuse comes from the sense of wrong. And this shows society has a common, unspoken agreement. We’ve agreed that business trumps truth. We believe Mammon is more powerful than Truth. We say we believe in God, but our actions prove we believe Mammon is greater than God, meaning we believe Mammon to be the only God.
But maybe it's not so simple. People have families to feed and rent to pay, after all. Over and over I hear this: “I don’t like doing this, but I have to make a living.” Or, “I don’t agree with this, but I have a family to feed.”
In other words, we are not ourselves, because we think we have no choice.
We believe ourselves so helpless that our actions are dependent upon our employers, leaders, corporations, the drugs of our addictions.
Do you see it?
We have given up all responsibility for ourselves.
It's strange how this would be considered radical: What if we all decided to simply be ourselves? I mean total sincerity.
What if we decided we’d rather lose our jobs or starve or die or be ostracized than to not be ourselves?
With full confidence I say we can never be happy and at peace until we're willing to give up all to be ourselves. To be ourselves, we must give up all that we think is ourselves, all that we think we possess. Our true selves possess absolutely nothing, and when we realize this, we are completely free (un-possessed by anything or anybody, un-possessed by the thought of possession).
Lungs that possess air cannot breathe.
What if we did everything, I mean every thing, not because we are getting paid, or for the credit of peers, or because we want to barter for something else, but simply because our hearts tell us to do?
We Think We Need Authority
And why do you not judge for yourselves what is right? (--Jesus)
If they can manage themselves and we think we cannot, why, then, do we consider ourselves more intelligent than other animals?
When I say this, many professed Christians often respond, “but we’re born in sin, have a fallen nature. We're evil, flawed.” They say it’s hopeless, and all we can do is wait for Jesus to come and rapture us away from this mess, completely ignoring the most basic of all basic Christian doctrines, that "Christ is in you, the hope of glory." The usual religion gets us hoping for a future reward and day of recompense. Stacking up credit. This idea of original sin has had a grip on western civilization for eons.
But, as one who was raised under evangelical Christian doctrine, having intensely studied the Bible since I could first read, I ask, is this really Christian doctrine? Does it bear good fruit? Is it Jewish doctrine? Is it any religion's doctrine? Since the Bible is the world’s most common book, a meme driving civilization, that doesn’t look like it’s going away anytime soon, let’s shine some light on its principle doctrines.
The very first chapter of the Bible says everything God creates is good, and after Adam (male and female) is created, all creation is pronounced not just good, but very good. Very good is the Seventh Good, the Complete Good. Adam (male and female) is created in the Image of God. Yes, the most fundamental message is that the Image of God is our true nature, and the Image of God is perfect goodness. It’s that simple, the very foundation of all that follows! The next chapter of Genesis proceeds to describe the fall from our True Nature. It’s a simple description of how we decided to try to be something other than ourselves.
Sin means debt. And the "original sin" we've inherited is no more our nature than a debt we inherit from our parents' estate. We've inherited a way of thinking, consciousness of credit and debt, which can be changed. Our innate nature cannot be changed.
When we do for the sake of doing, we return to our true nature. The doing itself is the fruit, the reward in itself, enjoying right now. Because it's always here, not future, it is fruit everlasting, the fruit of the Tree of Life. It's the bread of life that perpetually satisfies. When we act for the sake of getting something in the future, our fruit is forever future, never truly attainable, fickle, the fruit of the Tree of Consciousness of Credit and Debt, knowledge of Good and Evil. If you doubt this is what the Garden of Eden story is about, you may want to read “The Seven-Headed Dragon: World Commerce ” in the website, showing how the Hebrew text confirms these things.
The Core Principle of the World's Religions
 |
| Lao Tzu |
What is the central theme of the Baghavad Gita? Do not work for future fruit. The Tao Te Ching? Virtue gives expecting no credit. The Quran? The same. If you doubt this is the fundamental of the world’s religions, check out Here's the One Point We Know the World's Religions Agree Upon.
When our doing is its own reward, this is when we become real, Real, Royal. And we can say, I Am What I Am, no more, no less.
I Am What I Am
The Way, the Truth, and the Life
This is a doctrine you can prove for yourself by direct experience. There is no way to Peace, no way to Perfection, no way to Harmony except being exactly who you are, when you can say in perfect truth and confidence, I Am What I Am! When you are who you are, you are the Light of the World. Jesus said both: “I am the Light of the world,” and “You are the Light of the world.” The slave of the system will ask you, “So who sent you?” “What religion?” What authority?” “What scripture?” “What organization?” “Who employs you?” If you want to short out their brain circuits: simply say, "I Am What I Am; no one else sent me." The only way to say this is to simply Be, with or without talk.
 |
| The Burning Bush Byzantine Mosaic (Exodus 3:14) (Quran 20:11) |
When we leave the System of Slavery and escape to the Wilderness where there is no money, no government, our eyes suddenly open to the Burning Bush, and we finally hear our Name, the Name by which all life is called, I Am What I Am. And we will understand true human nature and love it so much we will want to return to our fellow humans whose true natures are oppressed under slavery. And we will proclaim the Name, I am what I am, liberating us to say, “Let my people go.”
Only when I am who I am can I ever see you for who you are. This is love. If I can't see my neighbor as myself, I can't love my neighbor. It is utterly impossible for me to love you if I am not myself, if I’m trying to be something else or trying to be what I think you want. When I am who I am, I am love. Love is the Way, the Truth, and the Life. There is no other way. Love is the one and only Image of God. Love is God incarnate, here and now, your True Nature, here in the flesh. I am who I am, the Name above all names, the name by which every created thing is called. All other names are just words, illusion. "The name that can be uttered is not the Eternal Name" (Tao Te Ching 1).
If you believe what I'm saying is blasphemy, I challenge you to look at those who harp the loudest that Jesus is the Way, the Truth, and the Life. Do they keep Jesus’ teachings? If they truly believe Jesus is the Way, the Truth, and the Life, they will keep his teachings. By their fruit you will know them, not by their talk. If you actually practice Jesus’ teachings you cannot help but see Jesus is your own true nature. Yes, what do you see in the mirror but the Image of God, universal, “Christ is all and in all”? If you practice Jesus' teachings, you can't help but see that Jesus is Krishna, is Buddha, is the Tao.
With the heart concentrated by yoga,
viewing all things with equal regard,
he beholds himself in all beings
and all beings in himself.
He who sees me everywhere
and sees everything in me,
to him I am never lost,
nor is he ever lost to me.
He who, having been established in oneness,
worships me dwelling in all beings,
that yogi, in whatever way he lives his life,
lives in me.
Him I hold to be the Supreme Yogi,
who looks on the pleasure and pain of all beings
as he looks on them in himself.
(Bhagavad Gita 6:29-32)
With the heart concentrated by yoga,
viewing all things with equal regard,
he beholds himself in all beings
and all beings in himself.
He who sees me everywhere
and sees everything in me,
to him I am never lost,
nor is he ever lost to me.
He who, having been established in oneness,
worships me dwelling in all beings,
that yogi, in whatever way he lives his life,
lives in me.
Him I hold to be the Supreme Yogi,
who looks on the pleasure and pain of all beings
as he looks on them in himself.
(Bhagavad Gita 6:29-32)
Muhammad, in the Hadith, says,
Allah made Adam in his own image (Sahih Muslim 40:6809)
[and this Hadith passage mysteriously says Adam is 60 cubits long, refering to the length of the Jerusalem temple, dwelling place of God, in the same way Jesus refers to his body as the temple, in the same way the New Testament refers to the human as the temple]
Early Muslims had no problem saying Adam is in the image of God. But later Muslims have tried to explain this away, partly because they didn't want to be like Jews and Christians, partly because the Quran, like the Bible (the Torah and Isaiah) say there is nothing and nobody like God, seemingly contradicting the Hadith and Genesis.
Hmm, yes, it is contradictory, that is, if you believe God and the Image of God are two different things! Either the Image of God is God, which revolutionizes Islam, Christianity, and Judaism, or else the Bible contradicts itself and the Quran contradicts Muhammad and we continue with the same bullshit for another few millenia. Either or.
Allah made Adam in his own image (Sahih Muslim 40:6809)
[and this Hadith passage mysteriously says Adam is 60 cubits long, refering to the length of the Jerusalem temple, dwelling place of God, in the same way Jesus refers to his body as the temple, in the same way the New Testament refers to the human as the temple]
Early Muslims had no problem saying Adam is in the image of God. But later Muslims have tried to explain this away, partly because they didn't want to be like Jews and Christians, partly because the Quran, like the Bible (the Torah and Isaiah) say there is nothing and nobody like God, seemingly contradicting the Hadith and Genesis.
Hmm, yes, it is contradictory, that is, if you believe God and the Image of God are two different things! Either the Image of God is God, which revolutionizes Islam, Christianity, and Judaism, or else the Bible contradicts itself and the Quran contradicts Muhammad and we continue with the same bullshit for another few millenia. Either or.
Again, the Quran says that God alone, referring to himself as We, will inherit the earth (Quran 19:40, 3:180,15:23,19:40, 28:58). Then it turns around and says people will inherit the earth! (Quran 39:74, 10:14, 21:105, 27:62). This alludes to Jesus and the Psalms saying "the meek shall inherit the earth." Then the Quran says that God alone rules the world. Then it turns around and says Adam is his vice-regent to rule the world! (Quran 2:30, 6:165, 38:26).
Now, compare these two mysterious Quran passages:
Now, compare these two mysterious Quran passages:
Once I perfect him, and blow into him from My Spirit, you shall fall prostrate before him
(Quran 15:29)
Lo! the likeness of Jesus with Allah is as the likeness of Adam. He created him of dust, then He said unto him: Be! and he is.
(Quran 3:59)
In other words,
Just simply Be, and you will be the Image of God, and you will be One with All and rule the universe.
If there is a good store of Virtue, nothing is impossible.
If nothing is impossible, there are no limits.
If a person knows no limits, he is fit to be Ruler.
(Tao Te Ching 59)
Why is the sea King of a hundred streams?
Because it lies below them.
If the Sage would guide the people,
He must serve with humility.
If he would lead them,
He must follow behind.
In this way when the Sage is Ruler
The people will not feel oppressed;
When he stands before them,
They will not be harmed.
The whole world will support him
And will not tire of him.
(Tao Te Ching 66)
And he sat down, called the twelve, and said to them,
"If anyone desires to be first,
he shall be last of all and slave of all."
Then he took a little child and set him in the midst of them.
And when he had taken him in his arms, he said to them,
"Whoever receives one of these little children
in my name receives me;
and whoever receives me,
receives not me but him who sent me."
(Mark 9:35-37)
He who takes upon himself the humiliation of the people
is fit to rule them
He who takes upon himself the country’s disasters
deserves to be King of the Universe.
(Tao Te Ching 78)
"But I would follow truth, I would be myself, if I could,” so you say, “but I have to make a living. I have a family to feed. My family and my church will ostracize me if I follow my heart, if I do what I know to be true, if I simply Be Who I Am.” We all have been trapped into not being ourselves and feel this way, and breaking out of this into truth is what makes life scary and exciting.
This is where faith and the Cross come in. Do you really believe in that cross hanging around your neck?
First, you must make the decision:
I will be myself no matter what, even if it means I lose my job and starve, even if it means I get crucified by my peers.
If you honestly believe that God is good, then you start knowing that if you follow good, against all odds, against the world’s logic, that everything will fall into place and everything will work out for you and your family. If you grow a bit of a spine, have courage, then you’ll figure it out, I guarantee it. You have no more excuses. Take responsibility. Good is your nature and good will carry you through. Good is God. Love is God. If you think you can’t live by being true, your faith is false, a pretend show. Then you are an actor. The Greek word for actor is hypocrite.
Sect and Political Party:
Seeking Credit of Peers
Seeking Credit of Peers
As soon as we join a sect or political party, calling ourselves a club name, we cease being ourselves, cease using our minds. We can no longer say, I Am Who I Am. We start parroting our club, not our hearts. This is ego. Ego is our put-on self, and ego’s sole purpose is to gain the credit of others. Credit is praise. Credit is money. Credit is barter.
We cease cooperating and start identifying ourselves by what "they" are not. For example, do we think bailing banks out is wrong because a democrat bailed out banks, or simply because our hearts tell us it’s wrong? Do we agree with bailing out banks because republicans are against it, or are we going against our hearts simply because it means not being like republicans?
 |
And look what Popeye could do!! |
I appeal to you… that all of you agree and that there be no divisions among you, but that you be united in the same mind and the same judgment. …there is quarreling among you, my brethren. What I mean is that each one of you says, "I am Paulian," or "I am Apollosian," or "I am Cephasian," or "I am Christian.” Is Christ divided?
How much proof do we need? History shows us over and over that peace and rational thinking are impossible when we call ourselves anything. You cannot be Christian if you call yourself Christian. You cannot be Muslim if you call yourself Muslim. You cannot be Hindu if you call yourself Hindu. You cannot be Republican if you call yourself Republican. You cannot be Democratic if you call yourself Democrat. You cannot be Socialist if you call yourself Socialist. You cannot be Libertarian if you call yourself Libertarian. You cannot be Universalist if you call yourself Universalist. How much more disaster must sectarian religion and politics wreak on the earth before we get it?
When will we get it that all we can be is ourselves? I am what I am, nothing more, nothing less. Only when we are each uniquely ourselves do we realize we are all One. “My people who are called by My Name:” I Am What I Am.
Our actions tell who we are, not our labels, not affiliations. By doing nothing more than being myself, I declare the unspeakable Name, when I am who I am. All energy, all liberation, all reality derives from simply Being. How can we think we can be anything else than Who We Are?
Kaydol:
Kayıtlar (Atom)