The markets are mixed in early trading, with the Nasdaq up a little and the S&P a tad lower. Overnight action in Asia was mixed despite reports coming out that the Chinese authorities are considering further monetary easing as inflation cools.
In Europe, the euro got a boost from French President Hollande defending the euro. However subsequent reports indicated that the Bundesbank poured cold water on some of the ideas such as the ESM getting a bank license and said that monetary policy should focus on price stability.
German retail sales grew +2.9%, while Spanish retail sales contracted by -5.2%. Eurozone unemployment remained at 11.2%.
In US economic news, consumer confidence rose to 65.9 vs. 62.7 last month. And the Chicago PMI also rose to 53.7 vs. 52.9 last month.
Stocks rising on earnings: IPGP, CRUS, PFE, LQDT, CRS, AMG, X, VLO, CMI
Stocks falling on earnings: STX, BP, COH, ADM, ALLT, ECL
The 10-year yield is back down below the 1.50% level to 1.47%. And the VIX is slightly higher to 18.35.
Trading comment: This is a tough juncture here ahead of both the Fed and the ECB meetings this week. The market is already anticipating either more quantitative easing or some measures by the ECB to address the debt issues with Spain, Greece, etc. That sets up the market for some potential disappointment, or at least a sell on the news reaction. As such, we are maintaining our defensive posture in portfolios at this juncture.
31 Temmuz 2012 Salı
30 Temmuz 2012 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings
The markets are trading slightly higher in early trading following last week's nice gains. The S&P 500 finished 1.7% higher last week for its third straight weekly gain. Equity markets are obviously pricing in the possibility of further central bank action ahead of this week's meetings at the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, but China was lower for a 4th straight session and the Shanghai Composite is now at its lowest levels since March 2009. That's not a very good sign for the China bulls.
Europe was also higher this morning led by Spain and Italy, which would be the two biggest beneficiaries of any actions taken by the ECB.
In corporate news, Shaw Group (SHAW) is some 70% higher after CBI said it will buy the company for $46. Best Buy (BBY) is also higher after reports suggesting that the company's founder Richard Schulze will try to take the company private.
Stocks rising on earnings: BEN, HBC, CALM, CIT
Stocks falling on earnings: MCY, DBD, L, LUFK
The dollar index is higher today, but commodities are mostly higher. Oil prices are flat near $90, while gold is up a bit to $1618 and silver is up nicely. Corn futures rose to a new all-time high overnight as drought conditions continue to plague farmers.
The 10-year yield is easing back to 1.50% after a late week spike higher last week. And the volatility index (VIX) is 7.6% higher so far today back to the 18.0 level.
Trading comment: All of the major indexes are back above their 50-day averages with the S&P 500 at its highest levels since May. If the Fed or the ECB announces some form of further quantitative easing this week, it could boost stock prices more. For the Fed, I still think they are going to want to keep some powder dry and that they will likely reiterate that they "stand ready" to take steps if the economy continues to falter. For the ECB, they seem to be closer to doing something big, but I'm not sure they have Germany on board yet which is a critical factor. As such, if they just try to talk up a good game without any new policy measures it would not be surprising to see a buy the rumor sell the news type reaction with stocks pulling back later this week. We shall see.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, but China was lower for a 4th straight session and the Shanghai Composite is now at its lowest levels since March 2009. That's not a very good sign for the China bulls.
Europe was also higher this morning led by Spain and Italy, which would be the two biggest beneficiaries of any actions taken by the ECB.
In corporate news, Shaw Group (SHAW) is some 70% higher after CBI said it will buy the company for $46. Best Buy (BBY) is also higher after reports suggesting that the company's founder Richard Schulze will try to take the company private.
Stocks rising on earnings: BEN, HBC, CALM, CIT
Stocks falling on earnings: MCY, DBD, L, LUFK
The dollar index is higher today, but commodities are mostly higher. Oil prices are flat near $90, while gold is up a bit to $1618 and silver is up nicely. Corn futures rose to a new all-time high overnight as drought conditions continue to plague farmers.
The 10-year yield is easing back to 1.50% after a late week spike higher last week. And the volatility index (VIX) is 7.6% higher so far today back to the 18.0 level.
Trading comment: All of the major indexes are back above their 50-day averages with the S&P 500 at its highest levels since May. If the Fed or the ECB announces some form of further quantitative easing this week, it could boost stock prices more. For the Fed, I still think they are going to want to keep some powder dry and that they will likely reiterate that they "stand ready" to take steps if the economy continues to falter. For the ECB, they seem to be closer to doing something big, but I'm not sure they have Germany on board yet which is a critical factor. As such, if they just try to talk up a good game without any new policy measures it would not be surprising to see a buy the rumor sell the news type reaction with stocks pulling back later this week. We shall see.
27 Temmuz 2012 Cuma
Anticipating ECB Liquidity
The markets are higher again in early trading. Asian markets rose overnight following the rally in the U.S. yesterday and the comments from ECB President Draghi about doing whatever is necessary to save the euro. Some of that sentiment has been echoed in France by Hollande this morning.
Moreover, the French paper Le Monde wrote about the possibility of an asset purchase program by the ECB that would involve open market purchases of govt bonds in Italy and Spain. The goal would be to reduce their borrowing costs, but again this would just be a short-term solution and only prolongs the day of reckoning as these countries need to deal with debt levels, deficits, and slowing growth.
In economic news, the advance GDP reading for U.S. GDP for Q2 came in at +1.5%, which was better than the 1.2% that had been expected. But 1.5% is still a low growth rate for the economy.
Also, the Univ. of Mich consumer sentiment survey's final reading was adjusted slightly higher to 72.3 from 72.0 previously.
In earnings news, it has been another mixed back of reports with some high profile names taking it on the chin today. Starbucks (SBUX) and Facebook (FB) are the two biggest disappointments today, with both of their stocks down double digits this morning.
Stocks rising on earnings: AMZN, EXPE, MRK, AMGN, EDR, GILD, N, VSI, HMSY
Stocks falling on earnings: FB, SBUX, CSTR, NTGR, QLGC, NEM
The euro is bouncing for a third day, pushing the dollar lower. Commodities are also higher again with oil prices near $90 and gold prices up to $1618. Copper prices are also higher, while silver looks flat.
The 10-year yield is finally seeing a bounce. I'm not sure why 1.5% GDP is the spark, but the yield is rising above the 1.50% level today to 1.51% currently. This is still a pretty low absolute level, but at least we've bounced from the 1.40% floor the 10-yr had been sitting at.
As for the VIX, it is down another -4% today to around 16.80. I think the VIX can hang around these low levels while market participants are anticipating more QE from the Fed and the ECB. But I also believe the VIX will get back above 20 if we get an August pullback.
Trading comment: Color me surprised by all the strength in the market, but I think folks are bidding up stocks given all the chatter about more QE from the Fed and now the ECB talking about it also. Earnings season has been mostly a mixed back from where I sit. I don't think we are going to see estimates for the S&P 500 revised higher. And we know from past central bank interventions that it has the effect of boosting the market for a brief time, but eventually reality sets in and we are back to dealing with the underlying problems. So enjoy the lift, and take advantage of it if you are nimble. But long-term investors with a big picture focus don't need to chase here, imo. If the market continues higher, I would look to trim equity exposure a little more and stay conservative as we head into fall.
KAM Advisors has long positions in FB, SBUX, EDR
Moreover, the French paper Le Monde wrote about the possibility of an asset purchase program by the ECB that would involve open market purchases of govt bonds in Italy and Spain. The goal would be to reduce their borrowing costs, but again this would just be a short-term solution and only prolongs the day of reckoning as these countries need to deal with debt levels, deficits, and slowing growth.
In economic news, the advance GDP reading for U.S. GDP for Q2 came in at +1.5%, which was better than the 1.2% that had been expected. But 1.5% is still a low growth rate for the economy.
Also, the Univ. of Mich consumer sentiment survey's final reading was adjusted slightly higher to 72.3 from 72.0 previously.
In earnings news, it has been another mixed back of reports with some high profile names taking it on the chin today. Starbucks (SBUX) and Facebook (FB) are the two biggest disappointments today, with both of their stocks down double digits this morning.
Stocks rising on earnings: AMZN, EXPE, MRK, AMGN, EDR, GILD, N, VSI, HMSY
Stocks falling on earnings: FB, SBUX, CSTR, NTGR, QLGC, NEM
The euro is bouncing for a third day, pushing the dollar lower. Commodities are also higher again with oil prices near $90 and gold prices up to $1618. Copper prices are also higher, while silver looks flat.
The 10-year yield is finally seeing a bounce. I'm not sure why 1.5% GDP is the spark, but the yield is rising above the 1.50% level today to 1.51% currently. This is still a pretty low absolute level, but at least we've bounced from the 1.40% floor the 10-yr had been sitting at.
As for the VIX, it is down another -4% today to around 16.80. I think the VIX can hang around these low levels while market participants are anticipating more QE from the Fed and the ECB. But I also believe the VIX will get back above 20 if we get an August pullback.
Trading comment: Color me surprised by all the strength in the market, but I think folks are bidding up stocks given all the chatter about more QE from the Fed and now the ECB talking about it also. Earnings season has been mostly a mixed back from where I sit. I don't think we are going to see estimates for the S&P 500 revised higher. And we know from past central bank interventions that it has the effect of boosting the market for a brief time, but eventually reality sets in and we are back to dealing with the underlying problems. So enjoy the lift, and take advantage of it if you are nimble. But long-term investors with a big picture focus don't need to chase here, imo. If the market continues higher, I would look to trim equity exposure a little more and stay conservative as we head into fall.
KAM Advisors has long positions in FB, SBUX, EDR
26 Temmuz 2012 Perşembe
Draghi Gooses The Market
Asian markets were higher overnight, but trading was lackluster in Europe this morning before ECB President Draghi made heroic comments that really boosted the market. Draghi was quoted as saying the ECB "is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro" and that sharing national sovereignty is still to come.
Those comments caused a sharp rally across global markets. The euro also got a big boost, as did commodities. Gold prices rallied to $1615, oil prices are higher near $89.85, and silver and copper prices are higher as well.
It is unclear what measures Draghi can come up with at this point, and the big issue is going to be how to get Germany to go along with many of the solutions that they have been opposed to. So it will be interesting to see how long his comments soothe the markets for. Some are also speculating that maybe the ECB will do some quantitative easing of its own, but in the long-run its hard to solve debt problems with more debt.
In economic news, durable goods orders rose 1.6%, boosted by aircraft demand. Ex-transportation durable goods fell -1.1%.
Earnings reports continue to come in fast and furious. This morning I am seeing more stocks rising on earnings than falling, but a few in-line earnings reports have been met with some outsized selling.
Stocks rising on earnings: ACOM, CAKE, TSCO, MMM, NOV, NEE, SHOO, UTX, S, WFM, XOM, V
Stocks falling on earnings: SRCL, GNC, POT, ZMH
The 10-year yield is also getting a small boost, up to 1.43%. The 1.40% level has held so far this week and I would like to see the 10-yr yield bounce higher. Call me old school, but these low levels don't incite much confidence in the outlook for the economy.
As for the VIX, it is down more than 5% this morning to around 18.25.
Trading comment: This feels like an oversold rally to me. The SPX would have to get above last week's 1380 highs for us to talk about the market rallying back to its old highs. I have said that I think markets will be choppy in the near-term, and today's rally fits that bill. The markets had been down pretty sharply over the last 3-4 days so they were ripe for a snapback. Let's see if the market can build on these gains over the next few days. The SPX held its test of its 50-day support this week. If that key support gives way in the near-term folks will be talking about retesting the June lows. Tough environment = stay defensive.
KAM Advisors has long positions in NEE, SRCL, V
Those comments caused a sharp rally across global markets. The euro also got a big boost, as did commodities. Gold prices rallied to $1615, oil prices are higher near $89.85, and silver and copper prices are higher as well.
It is unclear what measures Draghi can come up with at this point, and the big issue is going to be how to get Germany to go along with many of the solutions that they have been opposed to. So it will be interesting to see how long his comments soothe the markets for. Some are also speculating that maybe the ECB will do some quantitative easing of its own, but in the long-run its hard to solve debt problems with more debt.
In economic news, durable goods orders rose 1.6%, boosted by aircraft demand. Ex-transportation durable goods fell -1.1%.
Earnings reports continue to come in fast and furious. This morning I am seeing more stocks rising on earnings than falling, but a few in-line earnings reports have been met with some outsized selling.
Stocks rising on earnings: ACOM, CAKE, TSCO, MMM, NOV, NEE, SHOO, UTX, S, WFM, XOM, V
Stocks falling on earnings: SRCL, GNC, POT, ZMH
The 10-year yield is also getting a small boost, up to 1.43%. The 1.40% level has held so far this week and I would like to see the 10-yr yield bounce higher. Call me old school, but these low levels don't incite much confidence in the outlook for the economy.
As for the VIX, it is down more than 5% this morning to around 18.25.
Trading comment: This feels like an oversold rally to me. The SPX would have to get above last week's 1380 highs for us to talk about the market rallying back to its old highs. I have said that I think markets will be choppy in the near-term, and today's rally fits that bill. The markets had been down pretty sharply over the last 3-4 days so they were ripe for a snapback. Let's see if the market can build on these gains over the next few days. The SPX held its test of its 50-day support this week. If that key support gives way in the near-term folks will be talking about retesting the June lows. Tough environment = stay defensive.
KAM Advisors has long positions in NEE, SRCL, V
25 Temmuz 2012 Çarşamba
Is More QE On The Way?
The market had a pretty big rally late in the day yesterday after the WSJ reported that the Fed is very close to another round of quantitative easing, and is considering action at either its August or September meeting. Before the enthusiasm had a chance to spillover to Asia, Apple (AAPL) reported disappointing earnings and that seemed to weigh on Asian markets and sentiment more as markets there fell across the board.
I'm not so sure I agree with the timing of additional QE from the Fed at this juncture. I would prefer to see them save some powder for later in the year when we get further down the line with Europe and even as we near the fiscal cliff.
In Europe this morning, markets there are higher across the board after comments from an ECB council member who suggested Europe's rescue fund should receive a banking license. This would allow the fund to leverage up its assets to fund bailouts. One of the concerns is that all of these rescue funds still don't have enough assets to cover both Spain and Italy.
In earnings news, although AAPL was the big miss today and that is weighing down the whole Nasdaq, I'm seeing more stocks rising on earnings than falling.
Stocks rising on earnings: BA, PNRA, RVBD, ALXN, ARMH, BMY, CAT, TMO, IACI, PEP
Stocks falling on earnings: AAPL, NFLX, LO, GD, TRIP, IGT, BWLD
In economic news, new home sales in June fell to 350k rate from 382k in May. Goldman has been calling for a big rally in the housing market, but most of the stuff I follow doesn't support that notion. Prices in many parts of the country just aren't moving despite all-time lows in mortgage rates.
The dollar is lower today as the euro bounces after 3 rough days. That is helping boost most commodities. Gold has rallied back to the $1600 level. Copper and silver prices are higher also. But oil prices are weaker today falling back to the $87 level.
The 10-yield continues to languish at the 1.40% level. And the VIX is slightly higher this morning back above the 20 level to 20.60.
Trading comment: The SPX is again sitting right at its 50-day average support. The other junior indexes are already trading below their respective 50-day averages. Market leader AAPL is taking it on the chin today and is unlikely to resume as a market leader until we can put some time behind us in terms of this disappointing quarter they just reported. That could leave a vacuum in leadership with no clear cut groups doing well at this juncture. Given the above, I still want to focus on playing defense in the near-term.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, ALXN, BMY
I'm not so sure I agree with the timing of additional QE from the Fed at this juncture. I would prefer to see them save some powder for later in the year when we get further down the line with Europe and even as we near the fiscal cliff.
In Europe this morning, markets there are higher across the board after comments from an ECB council member who suggested Europe's rescue fund should receive a banking license. This would allow the fund to leverage up its assets to fund bailouts. One of the concerns is that all of these rescue funds still don't have enough assets to cover both Spain and Italy.
In earnings news, although AAPL was the big miss today and that is weighing down the whole Nasdaq, I'm seeing more stocks rising on earnings than falling.
Stocks rising on earnings: BA, PNRA, RVBD, ALXN, ARMH, BMY, CAT, TMO, IACI, PEP
Stocks falling on earnings: AAPL, NFLX, LO, GD, TRIP, IGT, BWLD
In economic news, new home sales in June fell to 350k rate from 382k in May. Goldman has been calling for a big rally in the housing market, but most of the stuff I follow doesn't support that notion. Prices in many parts of the country just aren't moving despite all-time lows in mortgage rates.
The dollar is lower today as the euro bounces after 3 rough days. That is helping boost most commodities. Gold has rallied back to the $1600 level. Copper and silver prices are higher also. But oil prices are weaker today falling back to the $87 level.
The 10-yield continues to languish at the 1.40% level. And the VIX is slightly higher this morning back above the 20 level to 20.60.
Trading comment: The SPX is again sitting right at its 50-day average support. The other junior indexes are already trading below their respective 50-day averages. Market leader AAPL is taking it on the chin today and is unlikely to resume as a market leader until we can put some time behind us in terms of this disappointing quarter they just reported. That could leave a vacuum in leadership with no clear cut groups doing well at this juncture. Given the above, I still want to focus on playing defense in the near-term.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, ALXN, BMY
24 Temmuz 2012 Salı
To Find Lost Manhood
I'm often told my posts are positive and optimistic. This one might seem cynical and dark. But it's about truth we must face, and I hope you see the optimism behind all truth.
..................................................................................................................................
I made it to Denver from Vermont. I'm staying at the house of my friends, Joan, Sokha, and their daughter Charya. Now I have to find a ride to my friend Stephanie's in Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado. She plans to take me to our Peace Corps reunion in San Diego at the beginning of August.
Which Mass Homicide Do You Prefer?
"How Many Mass Killers Were Women?"
My friend Whitney brought out a glaring fact in Facebook: "How many mass killers were women?" She asks. "And violence is overwhelmingly male (both perpetrators and victims). Time to start talking about how to reach young men and help them learn to stop this cycle." And she references this article by Erika Christakis:
..................................................................................................................................
I made it to Denver from Vermont. I'm staying at the house of my friends, Joan, Sokha, and their daughter Charya. Now I have to find a ride to my friend Stephanie's in Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado. She plans to take me to our Peace Corps reunion in San Diego at the beginning of August.
My new friends, Sara and Torri, with their children, Ian and Marta, brought me to Denver from Vermont. Ian (age 9) and Marta (age 7) were a joy to me.
I've gotten to see my friends Cody and Jesse, and Tim and Cherry and their son Daniel, while in Denver. (Cody, Jesse and Tim are in the book). Cody just had a dread-cutting party, which I missed, and is now bald. He had me cut off one of his dreads beforehand, though.
Cambodian Abode
It's interesting staying with Sokha. Sokha's native Cambodia was devastated by Pol Pot's genocide, on the one hand, and Henry Kissinger's genocide, on the other. Sokha lost his entire immediate family and many friends to the ravages of genocide and starvation caused by politics. He keeps telling me about the joyful simplicity of his native Cambodian culture, and can't help but see how ridiculous the rampant materialism and absurd complexity of life in the US has become, even as he is grateful to be here. He tells me of the generosity and hospitality of Cambodian culture, how anybody can drop in at anybody's house un-announced and be fed, no matter how poor. And here, in this nation of wealth, you often go away hungry after visiting somebody. And you can't visit many folks in the US without calling ahead of time to make an appointment, as if you're dealing with a business, not people. He observes, also, the irony that the more people have, the less they can share. He says, in his Cambodian culture, people don't need accountants, because "never go in debt, spend only what you have only on what you need, and keep only possessions you need, and work only as much as you need" are all you need to know.
Que Mall
Joan and I got into a heated discussion about mega churches in Denver - a whole franchise of them - which we've both visited several times. The churches look like malls - because they are malls, with coffee shops and bookshops in foyers, cash registers and all. You can't get into the sanctuary without walking through this merchandise department. And, once you're in the sanctuary, you get to see high tech video screens everywhere with hip bands playing hip music. To me it's a no-brainer, "Do not make My Father's house a house of merchandise!", you know, what Jesus said as he wielded his whip. No matter from what angle I look at this, and whatever argument for it I hear, I simply can't help but feel utter disgust. But there are really nice people in those churches, doing good things, donating lots of money on really nice programs helping lots of people. And the preachers give good, insightful sermons (which, surprise, never ever happen to include Jesus' basic teachings, like about money and possessions, except on rare, rare, rare occasions, only for the sake of explaining them away). Nice people and nice programs and nice words and the "Gospel" make the pill go down smooth. I hope to write a full-fledged essay about this for the website. This is very important, because we're talking a big political force here, not an inane, offbeat religion. We're talking about a force behind American world policy.
Book Readings I Missed
Mark Sundeen is doing book readings in Albuquerque (Monday the 23rd) and Santa Fe (Tuesday) and invited me to participate, but I couldn't get my act together to hitch hike in the heat out of Denver, which would mean hitching back to Colorado again for my ride to San Diego. Too much traveling is getting to wear on me.
 |
| mass grave of massacred Cambodians |
Most folks have heard about the next mass shooting that happened in the Denver area since I've been here. We keep thinking these killings are isolated, random, freak events. But they keep happening. And they will keep happening, more and more, as certainly as the cause-and-effect laws of physics.
Mass killings are a guaranteed symptom of a sick society.
 |
| The President with his future Nobel Peace Prize Laureate proving their lost manhood |
Henry Kissinger got the Nobel Peace Prize, even after he and Richard Nixon master-minded the mass bombings of millions of innocent men, women, and children in Cambodia and Vietnam. What if the whole nation looked on in horror over Kissinger's acts as it does over James Holmes' killing of 12 people and wounding 58?
"How Many Mass Killers Were Women?"
 |
| Columbus' first project on Hispaniola: proving lost manhood. The founding seed of America. |
Some men brought up the fact there are isolated instances of women serial and mass murderers, too. But that doesn't erase the obvious, that the overwhelming majority of killers have been males.
Whitney's comment: "I'd like to see a much more open attitude toward mental illness. We should make it not only possible, but acceptable to say 'hey, I'm hearing voices in my head]' or 'Mom, Dad, I'm really pissed off and want to shoot someone' and know that while these things are not normal, they're nothing to be ashamed of, and that there are ways to help and feel better."
 |
| "Hmm... I'm dazed and confused... after all that, I still can't find my manhood! I guess, to be a man, you have to be like Kissinger & Columbus, and massacre thousands or millions! |
Another fb person explained it by saying it's due to lowered levels of testosterone, brought on by bad diet, lack of exercise, and environmental toxins.
I agree with both the above, and add my own observation as a male who went through suicidal clinical depression. Self destruction. I'll dare find the rage that I felt in myself and shed some light on this. Here was my response to the conversation. This is not about excusing the mass murderers. We're each responsible for ourselves. Yet we can never be responsible until we realize the whole society is ourselves:
"It's pretty damned obvious males don't feel useful and feel emasculated in a control-freak society obsessed with security and fear. Boys don't play in the woods any more, don't explore, don't experience the natural dangers of life that we all need (yes need, like we need air) and learn how to cope with challenges.
It's a principle of biology. Don't allow your body to naturally deal with illness and pain, popping antibiotics & painkillers at the drop of a hat, and our immune systems get weak, and our bodies start attacking themselves. Auto-immune diseases, cancer and mental illness are more rampant than ever before.
 |
| "I have no doubt about my masculinity, and I'm not even a man! Maybe if I stop cockfighting petty individuals and dabble in massacre, I'll become a man!" |
Socially, this is true. History and biology show us males are, generally speaking, the antibodies of society. It's in their genetics to protect, and this is repressed. Is a rooster stupid for being "cocky," or is this its biology? Now they begin attacking their own selves, own societies. The more males get bashed for being male, the more their repressed anger boils. How long does a cap stay on a pressure cooker that has no release?
In physics this is true. Can we eliminate negatives when for every positive there is an equal and opposite negative? Won't the negatives backlash in violence? Instead of fighting and denying what will never, ever, ever go away (night, winter, violence, anger, aging, death) why not just accept it all as natural and then finally live with it in balance?"
I often hear how it's such a wonderful thing how civilized we are from our barbaric tribal days, and how we continue to civilize barbaric tribes the world over. But does the barbarism of the Yanomamo and head-hunting Juarani in the Amazon even begin to hole a candle to to the incessant mass genocide and perpetual, prolonged suffering promoted by commercial civilization? But we wrap our mass murders in methodical, civilized morality, even as we are appalled at splinters in the eyes of "barbarians." And what a pretty wrapping it is, huh?
How can we be happy dealing only with the symptoms when our system itself is flawed to its very foundation? There's often no better way to see a system for what it is than to step outside of it. To find a real man, that is the manly challenge.
One-on-One with Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney unveils his 5-point recovery plan: energy, trade, balanced budget, education, and economic freedom to keep taxes and regulations low.
He also blasts Obama for “you didn’t build that” and contrasts that with his own free enterprise reward success philosophy.
He also blasts Obama for “you didn’t build that” and contrasts that with his own free enterprise reward success philosophy.
China PMI Trying To Rebound
The markets are lower again in early trading following a Moody's downgrade in Europe and rising bond yields in Italy and Spain again.
Overnight, Asian markets rebounded from early losses after China's HSBC Manuf. PMI reading rose to 49.5 from 48.2 previously. Although it is a welcome rebound, the sub-50 reading still points to continued contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector.
In Europe, last night Moody's placed the AAA ratings of Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands on 'negative watch'. Italian and Spanish yields are on the rise again, nearing 6.41% and 7.47% respectively. Despite the above, European stock markets are holding up fairly well.
The dollar is higher again, but commodities are mixed. Oil prices are higher near $88.60, and gold prices are steady near $1577. Silver and copper prices are lower.
In earnings news, there were a lot of reports last night and this morning and the results are mixed.
Stocks rising on earnings: UA, BIDU, PCAR, LMT, DPZ, SPG, JAH, EMC, MO, SAP
Stocks falling on earnings: UPS, DV, VMW, SIAL, ITW, BTU, T, LXK
The 10-year yield is languishing near 1.42%. And the VIX is 4% higher to 19.42 after hitting the 20 level yesterday before turning lower.
Trading comment: The mid- and small-cap indexes are trading below their 50-day averages, the Nasdaq and Dow are right at their 50-day supports, and the SPX isn't too far away. So those are the lines in the sand that could point out when the bulls pull in their horns and get more defensive. Earnings reports so far haven't been to bad, but they haven't provided a big upside spark either. AAPL reports today, and even if the company beats as they usually do I doubt the quarter was strong enough to excite the whole market. I continue to expect choppy trading following the roughly 6-week rally the market just enjoyed.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, EMC, MO
Overnight, Asian markets rebounded from early losses after China's HSBC Manuf. PMI reading rose to 49.5 from 48.2 previously. Although it is a welcome rebound, the sub-50 reading still points to continued contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector.
In Europe, last night Moody's placed the AAA ratings of Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands on 'negative watch'. Italian and Spanish yields are on the rise again, nearing 6.41% and 7.47% respectively. Despite the above, European stock markets are holding up fairly well.
The dollar is higher again, but commodities are mixed. Oil prices are higher near $88.60, and gold prices are steady near $1577. Silver and copper prices are lower.
In earnings news, there were a lot of reports last night and this morning and the results are mixed.
Stocks rising on earnings: UA, BIDU, PCAR, LMT, DPZ, SPG, JAH, EMC, MO, SAP
Stocks falling on earnings: UPS, DV, VMW, SIAL, ITW, BTU, T, LXK
The 10-year yield is languishing near 1.42%. And the VIX is 4% higher to 19.42 after hitting the 20 level yesterday before turning lower.
Trading comment: The mid- and small-cap indexes are trading below their 50-day averages, the Nasdaq and Dow are right at their 50-day supports, and the SPX isn't too far away. So those are the lines in the sand that could point out when the bulls pull in their horns and get more defensive. Earnings reports so far haven't been to bad, but they haven't provided a big upside spark either. AAPL reports today, and even if the company beats as they usually do I doubt the quarter was strong enough to excite the whole market. I continue to expect choppy trading following the roughly 6-week rally the market just enjoyed.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, EMC, MO
23 Temmuz 2012 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings
Last week I wrote that while the news out of Europe had seemed to move to the back burner it was likely that one day we would awake to find the crisis back in our faces. That day looks like today, as news came out over the weekend that the IMF could discontinue aid to Greece and more regions in Spain could seek additional bailouts.
Germany's Der Spiegel magazine made the comments about IMF aid, and the Vice Chancellor said if Greece can't meet its requirements there would be no more aid. Also, both Italy and Spain enacted short-selling bans this morning amid severe pressure on European financials. Spanish bond yields have topped 7.40% this morning.
Asian markets were also down overnight after a PBOC official said it will be harder for the central bank to cut rates and that GDP for the quarter could be closer to 7.2%.
The euro is falling to new 2-yr lows while the dollar index is benefiting from the flight to safety. Commodities are also lower, with oil prices falling back to $88.95 and gold prices slipping under the $1575 level. Silver and copper prices are also lower.
There were a handful of earnings reports this morning. Despite the large declines in the market this morning stocks like ETN, HAL, and HAS are all trading higher following their reports. MCD missed EPS estimates and is trading lower. Earnings season really heats up this week with some 750 companies set to report earnings, including AAPL Tuesday afternoon.
The 10-year yield continues to sink on the flight to safety trade. It hit 1.40% earlier and is currently trading near 1.43%. As for the VIX, it saw a huge spike in early trading all the way back to the 20 level, which is nearly 25% above Friday's closing levels. It has now settled in around the 19 level.
Trading comment: Although the price action in the markets had been relatively positive for the last six weeks, the macro risk never went away and peripheral euro bond yields remained consistently high. With the crisis back on the front burner, the market could easily be back in a defensive position for the intermediate-term. The SPX is still a bit above its 50-day support which sits near 1333. But the Nasdaq already broke its 50-day support this morning as have the mid- and small-cap indexes. I want to stay defensive here and will look to selective add to ETF hedges if the market can't bounce.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, MCD
Germany's Der Spiegel magazine made the comments about IMF aid, and the Vice Chancellor said if Greece can't meet its requirements there would be no more aid. Also, both Italy and Spain enacted short-selling bans this morning amid severe pressure on European financials. Spanish bond yields have topped 7.40% this morning.
Asian markets were also down overnight after a PBOC official said it will be harder for the central bank to cut rates and that GDP for the quarter could be closer to 7.2%.
The euro is falling to new 2-yr lows while the dollar index is benefiting from the flight to safety. Commodities are also lower, with oil prices falling back to $88.95 and gold prices slipping under the $1575 level. Silver and copper prices are also lower.
There were a handful of earnings reports this morning. Despite the large declines in the market this morning stocks like ETN, HAL, and HAS are all trading higher following their reports. MCD missed EPS estimates and is trading lower. Earnings season really heats up this week with some 750 companies set to report earnings, including AAPL Tuesday afternoon.
The 10-year yield continues to sink on the flight to safety trade. It hit 1.40% earlier and is currently trading near 1.43%. As for the VIX, it saw a huge spike in early trading all the way back to the 20 level, which is nearly 25% above Friday's closing levels. It has now settled in around the 19 level.
Trading comment: Although the price action in the markets had been relatively positive for the last six weeks, the macro risk never went away and peripheral euro bond yields remained consistently high. With the crisis back on the front burner, the market could easily be back in a defensive position for the intermediate-term. The SPX is still a bit above its 50-day support which sits near 1333. But the Nasdaq already broke its 50-day support this morning as have the mid- and small-cap indexes. I want to stay defensive here and will look to selective add to ETF hedges if the market can't bounce.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, MCD
20 Temmuz 2012 Cuma
Spain Getting Ugly Again
Markets are lower around the globe this morning after Asian markets declined overnight and then news out of Spain that its Valencia region will seek govt. help to pay its obligations. Spain's 10-year yield is back above 7.0% and its stock market is down more than 5% today. Ouch.
The euro is breaking to new 2-year lows, pushing the dollar index higher. Commodities are weak. Oil prices have eased back to $91.25. Gold prices are lower to $1580, and silver and copper prices are lower as well.
There is no US economic data to mention today. But there were a large number of earnings reports last night and this morning. Today we are seeing more mixed results in terms of the reactions.
Stocks rising on earnings: GOOG, GDI, SNDK, GE, SLB
Stocks falling on earnings: CMG, COF, ISRG, MSFT, IDXX
The 10-year yield is back down to 1.45%. And the VIX is bouncing 7% to 16.56, which is still a pretty low absolute level.
Trading comment: While the market action has been seemingly more constructive lately, I have noted that the quality of the rally is a bit suspect as it has been led more by defensive stocks than classic growth stocks. That is often an indication of a fleeting rally as opposed to one that has legs. The wildcard has been the economic backdrop in the eurozone. While headlines out of the EU have been sparse lately, it won't take many more days like today for the wheels to come off the market again. Spain's stock market is now down -5.8% which is a huge plunge. And the spillover to Italy is creeping in. If the crisis heats up again I think it will put markets back on the defensive in a hurry. So we are going to have the push and pull between US corp earnings and the reaction in stocks vs. the macro backdrop out of Europe and the potential global slowdown.
KAM Advisors has long positions in GOOG
The euro is breaking to new 2-year lows, pushing the dollar index higher. Commodities are weak. Oil prices have eased back to $91.25. Gold prices are lower to $1580, and silver and copper prices are lower as well.
There is no US economic data to mention today. But there were a large number of earnings reports last night and this morning. Today we are seeing more mixed results in terms of the reactions.
Stocks rising on earnings: GOOG, GDI, SNDK, GE, SLB
Stocks falling on earnings: CMG, COF, ISRG, MSFT, IDXX
The 10-year yield is back down to 1.45%. And the VIX is bouncing 7% to 16.56, which is still a pretty low absolute level.
Trading comment: While the market action has been seemingly more constructive lately, I have noted that the quality of the rally is a bit suspect as it has been led more by defensive stocks than classic growth stocks. That is often an indication of a fleeting rally as opposed to one that has legs. The wildcard has been the economic backdrop in the eurozone. While headlines out of the EU have been sparse lately, it won't take many more days like today for the wheels to come off the market again. Spain's stock market is now down -5.8% which is a huge plunge. And the spillover to Italy is creeping in. If the crisis heats up again I think it will put markets back on the defensive in a hurry. So we are going to have the push and pull between US corp earnings and the reaction in stocks vs. the macro backdrop out of Europe and the potential global slowdown.
KAM Advisors has long positions in GOOG
19 Temmuz 2012 Perşembe
Investors In Forgiving Mood With Earnings
The markets are higher across the board this morning after most companies reporting earnings are seeing strong positive reactions in their stocks. Global markets have also been higher last night and this morning as the eurozone concerns seem to be taking a back seat for the time being.
Asian markets were up across the board overnight on speculation of another reserve requirement ratio cut in China. And in Europe markets are all higher despite yields on the Spanish 10-year climbing back to the 7.00% mark. We've seen this movie before where Europe seems to fall out of the conversation for a short time and then one day you come in and its back on the front burner in a hurry.
In earnings news, there are way more stocks rising than falling after reporting. It seems that even in-line earnings have been met with positive reactions, while beat and raises are seeing very strong moves.
Stocks rising on earnings: YUM, COF, FCX, UNP, VFC, PM, FFIV, IBM, QCOM, EBAY, and the big one MLNX
Stocks falling on earnings: MS, SYK, UNH, GHL
In economic news, jobless claims came in higher that last week at 386,000. Existing home sales also disappointed at 4.37 million units for June which was down from the prior month. The Philly Fed survey rose to -12.9 for July from -16.6 last month, but this is still a pretty weak reading.
The dollar index is higher today, but it doesn't seem to be hurting commodities. Oil prices are higher near $92.10 (also Iran concerns) and gold prices are rallying to $1590. Copper and silver prices are higher also.
The 10-year yield is barely moving, stuck at that 1.50% level. And the VIX is falling further, now below the 16 level to 15.90. I still think protection is being priced pretty cheap.
Trading comment: I am surprised by how strong the positive reactions to earnings are. As more stocks continue to break out I might look to add some long exposure to portfolios. The SPX has broken above its earlier July highs, and the next resistance doesn't look to come into play until we get above 1400 (around 1415). Summer rallies are rare, and I think this latest move has caught a lot of investor flat footed. The quality of this rally still isn't great, but it's slowly improving so I don't want to be blind to giving stocks the benefit of the doubt.
KAM Advisors has long positions in IBM, QCOM, PM, VFC, YUM
Asian markets were up across the board overnight on speculation of another reserve requirement ratio cut in China. And in Europe markets are all higher despite yields on the Spanish 10-year climbing back to the 7.00% mark. We've seen this movie before where Europe seems to fall out of the conversation for a short time and then one day you come in and its back on the front burner in a hurry.
In earnings news, there are way more stocks rising than falling after reporting. It seems that even in-line earnings have been met with positive reactions, while beat and raises are seeing very strong moves.
Stocks rising on earnings: YUM, COF, FCX, UNP, VFC, PM, FFIV, IBM, QCOM, EBAY, and the big one MLNX
Stocks falling on earnings: MS, SYK, UNH, GHL
In economic news, jobless claims came in higher that last week at 386,000. Existing home sales also disappointed at 4.37 million units for June which was down from the prior month. The Philly Fed survey rose to -12.9 for July from -16.6 last month, but this is still a pretty weak reading.
The dollar index is higher today, but it doesn't seem to be hurting commodities. Oil prices are higher near $92.10 (also Iran concerns) and gold prices are rallying to $1590. Copper and silver prices are higher also.
The 10-year yield is barely moving, stuck at that 1.50% level. And the VIX is falling further, now below the 16 level to 15.90. I still think protection is being priced pretty cheap.
Trading comment: I am surprised by how strong the positive reactions to earnings are. As more stocks continue to break out I might look to add some long exposure to portfolios. The SPX has broken above its earlier July highs, and the next resistance doesn't look to come into play until we get above 1400 (around 1415). Summer rallies are rare, and I think this latest move has caught a lot of investor flat footed. The quality of this rally still isn't great, but it's slowly improving so I don't want to be blind to giving stocks the benefit of the doubt.
KAM Advisors has long positions in IBM, QCOM, PM, VFC, YUM
18 Temmuz 2012 Çarşamba
Lots Of Positive Reactions To Earnings
The market is higher this morning on the heels of lots of positive reactions to earnings reports. I have often said that the most important thing is to see how stocks react to earnings to gauge sentiment and expectations. The recent drop in many stocks ahead of earnings appears to have already priced in any subdued outlook, and that is allowing lots of stocks to bounce after reporting.
I see a lot more stocks rising on earnings than falling. Here are some of the positive reactions: CHKP, INTC, USB, AGU, GWW, HON, WYNN, APH, SWK
Here are a few that are lower today: BAC, NTRS, STJ
In economic news, housing starts hit a rate of 760,000 units which was above consensus.
Overnight, most Asian markets were lower. China was higher after a leading news journal suggested the PBOC should ease monetary policy further in order to foster growth. In Europe most markets are higher this morning as there is a lull in news coming out of the eurozone.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is continuing his second day of testimony before Congress, and hasn't hinted at any additional QE around the corner. The market doesn't seem too concerned so far.
The dollar index is higher, which is weighing on most commodities. Gold prices are lower to $1580 while oil prices are slightly higher near $89.75.
The 10-year yield is flattish near 1.48%. The recent rise in equities hasn't done much to boost yields yet.
As for the VIX, it is down another -1.5% to 16.25. The last time it was this low was back in April just prior to the market peak and before a 10% correction.
Trading comment: The market continues to push higher. I had been worried about potential selloffs after earnings announcements, but so far most stocks are showing positive reactions following reporting. The recent high in the S&P 500 was 1375. Today we have already approached 1372, so if the 1375 level can be taken out that potentially opens the door to a run at the April highs. Given my concerns that this rally has been led by defensive stocks, as opposed to classic growth stocks, I thought we would see more choppy trading. That is still a possibility, but you have to respect the positive price action so far.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BAC, HON; short APH, SWK
I see a lot more stocks rising on earnings than falling. Here are some of the positive reactions: CHKP, INTC, USB, AGU, GWW, HON, WYNN, APH, SWK
Here are a few that are lower today: BAC, NTRS, STJ
In economic news, housing starts hit a rate of 760,000 units which was above consensus.
Overnight, most Asian markets were lower. China was higher after a leading news journal suggested the PBOC should ease monetary policy further in order to foster growth. In Europe most markets are higher this morning as there is a lull in news coming out of the eurozone.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is continuing his second day of testimony before Congress, and hasn't hinted at any additional QE around the corner. The market doesn't seem too concerned so far.
The dollar index is higher, which is weighing on most commodities. Gold prices are lower to $1580 while oil prices are slightly higher near $89.75.
The 10-year yield is flattish near 1.48%. The recent rise in equities hasn't done much to boost yields yet.
As for the VIX, it is down another -1.5% to 16.25. The last time it was this low was back in April just prior to the market peak and before a 10% correction.
Trading comment: The market continues to push higher. I had been worried about potential selloffs after earnings announcements, but so far most stocks are showing positive reactions following reporting. The recent high in the S&P 500 was 1375. Today we have already approached 1372, so if the 1375 level can be taken out that potentially opens the door to a run at the April highs. Given my concerns that this rally has been led by defensive stocks, as opposed to classic growth stocks, I thought we would see more choppy trading. That is still a possibility, but you have to respect the positive price action so far.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BAC, HON; short APH, SWK
17 Temmuz 2012 Salı
Earnings Season Heating Up
The market suffered a quick reversal in the opening minutes of trade. After opening higher, the indexes reversed into negative territory where they currently remain.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is giving his semi-annual testimony before Congress. Some investors were probably hoping for him to announce more quantitative easing measures. But as I have said before, the Fed said they remain open to the possibility but they are not announcing it at this time. I think they want to keep some powder dry in the event that the economy slows and also if the fiscal cliff comes to fruition.
Earnings season is starting to heat up, and as I look at the stocks of the companies reporting my sense is that more stocks are showing positive reactions than vice verse. This is a good early sign, especially the rallies we've seen in financial stocks of reporting companies.
Stocks rising on earnings: GS, MOS, SCHW, KO, CME, MAT
Stocks falling on earnings: JNJ, STT, JBHT, MFRM
In economic news, the housing market index for July rose to a reading of 35.
Asian markets rallied overnight. The Reserve Bank of Australia said in its recent minutes that China may not be slowing much further. This is an optimistic outlook, and probably depends on how much stimulus they push through and its effectiveness.
The dollar index is higher this morning, which is weighing on most commodities. Gold prices have fallen back to 1575, likely exacerbated by the disappointment over no additional QE from the Fed. Oil prices are also down a bit, near $88. Silver and copper prices are lower as well.
The 10-year yield is steady at 1.48%, still a low absolute level. And despite the decline in the major indexes, the VIX is lower this morning to 16.90. This could augur well for a push higher today at some point.
Trading comment: The SPX is currently lower for the 8th time in 9 days. That's a pretty long streak. Given that earnings reports are coming in fairly well so far, I would not be surprised to see another push higher by the market. The SPX tested its 20-day average this morning at 1345. This area of 1335-1345 is a big support zone. If it holds, I expect another push higher. The SPX would need to get above its early July highs near 1375 to be in a position to attach its highs for the year. That might be a tall order. I find myself more in the trading range camp rather than looking for new highs. And as I have said for quite some time, this market is not being led by the traditional growth stocks that usually power a market higher. One good whack to this market would easily put investors back on their heels and playing defense again.
KAM Advisors has long positions in JNJ, KO
Fed Chairman Bernanke is giving his semi-annual testimony before Congress. Some investors were probably hoping for him to announce more quantitative easing measures. But as I have said before, the Fed said they remain open to the possibility but they are not announcing it at this time. I think they want to keep some powder dry in the event that the economy slows and also if the fiscal cliff comes to fruition.
Earnings season is starting to heat up, and as I look at the stocks of the companies reporting my sense is that more stocks are showing positive reactions than vice verse. This is a good early sign, especially the rallies we've seen in financial stocks of reporting companies.
Stocks rising on earnings: GS, MOS, SCHW, KO, CME, MAT
Stocks falling on earnings: JNJ, STT, JBHT, MFRM
In economic news, the housing market index for July rose to a reading of 35.
Asian markets rallied overnight. The Reserve Bank of Australia said in its recent minutes that China may not be slowing much further. This is an optimistic outlook, and probably depends on how much stimulus they push through and its effectiveness.
The dollar index is higher this morning, which is weighing on most commodities. Gold prices have fallen back to 1575, likely exacerbated by the disappointment over no additional QE from the Fed. Oil prices are also down a bit, near $88. Silver and copper prices are lower as well.
The 10-year yield is steady at 1.48%, still a low absolute level. And despite the decline in the major indexes, the VIX is lower this morning to 16.90. This could augur well for a push higher today at some point.
Trading comment: The SPX is currently lower for the 8th time in 9 days. That's a pretty long streak. Given that earnings reports are coming in fairly well so far, I would not be surprised to see another push higher by the market. The SPX tested its 20-day average this morning at 1345. This area of 1335-1345 is a big support zone. If it holds, I expect another push higher. The SPX would need to get above its early July highs near 1375 to be in a position to attach its highs for the year. That might be a tall order. I find myself more in the trading range camp rather than looking for new highs. And as I have said for quite some time, this market is not being led by the traditional growth stocks that usually power a market higher. One good whack to this market would easily put investors back on their heels and playing defense again.
KAM Advisors has long positions in JNJ, KO
16 Temmuz 2012 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings
The market has started out the week on a lower note following Friday's 200-point surge in the Dow. It should be an interesting week given the lingering concerns out of Europe and now China, and the heating up we will see in the number of companies reporting Q2 earnings results.
The only company reporting this morning was Citi (C), which beat estimates and its stock is higher in the weak tape. Visa and Mastercard are both nicely higher after the settlement of their longstanding lawsuit which has been going on for roughly 7 years.
Asian markets were mixed overnight, but China lost -1.7% after its Premier suggested that China's economic recovery may take more time.
Europe's markets are also lower this morning after the ECB is said to be looking to impose losses on bondholders of Spanish banks. That has helped push Spain's stock index to a loss of more than -1.5% this morning.
In economic news, retails sales in the U.S. for June declined -0.5%. The Empire Manuf. Index for July rose to 7.39 from last month's low level of 2.30.
The dollar is firm this morning and commodities are mixed. Oil prices are a bit higher to $87.30, while gold prices are a bit lower near $1590.
The 10-year yield has fallen back near record lows at 1.45% as money continues to flow in Treasuries despite these record low yields.
As for the volatility index (VIX), it has been higher this morning but not by much. It is currently only fractionally higher to 16.85.
Trading comment: This mornings pullback seems to have found some support near the SPX 1350 level. The senior index remains above its 50-day average and looks poised to continue higher unless we get some bad earnings reports that cause a sharp reversal. The volume on Friday's rally was nothing to write home about, and I haven't seen a lot of leading growth stocks breaking out to lead the market. This is another one of those rallies that seems to be led by defensive stocks (utilities, REITs, etc). Those usually don't have the same staying power as a rally led by growth stocks. As such, no change to our intermediate-term outlook to remain defensive in our asset allocations.
KAM Advisors has long positions in MA and V
The only company reporting this morning was Citi (C), which beat estimates and its stock is higher in the weak tape. Visa and Mastercard are both nicely higher after the settlement of their longstanding lawsuit which has been going on for roughly 7 years.
Asian markets were mixed overnight, but China lost -1.7% after its Premier suggested that China's economic recovery may take more time.
Europe's markets are also lower this morning after the ECB is said to be looking to impose losses on bondholders of Spanish banks. That has helped push Spain's stock index to a loss of more than -1.5% this morning.
In economic news, retails sales in the U.S. for June declined -0.5%. The Empire Manuf. Index for July rose to 7.39 from last month's low level of 2.30.
The dollar is firm this morning and commodities are mixed. Oil prices are a bit higher to $87.30, while gold prices are a bit lower near $1590.
The 10-year yield has fallen back near record lows at 1.45% as money continues to flow in Treasuries despite these record low yields.
As for the volatility index (VIX), it has been higher this morning but not by much. It is currently only fractionally higher to 16.85.
Trading comment: This mornings pullback seems to have found some support near the SPX 1350 level. The senior index remains above its 50-day average and looks poised to continue higher unless we get some bad earnings reports that cause a sharp reversal. The volume on Friday's rally was nothing to write home about, and I haven't seen a lot of leading growth stocks breaking out to lead the market. This is another one of those rallies that seems to be led by defensive stocks (utilities, REITs, etc). Those usually don't have the same staying power as a rally led by growth stocks. As such, no change to our intermediate-term outlook to remain defensive in our asset allocations.
KAM Advisors has long positions in MA and V
14 Temmuz 2012 Cumartesi
WEEKEND REPORT
I think the next couple of weeks and next Fed meeting are going to be a biggie. I've laid out the scenarios in the weekend report. I've also opened a $1 trial subscription for two days so everyone can access the report.
If you don't wish to convert to a monthly subscription just make sure you cancel auto renew before the second day by following the directions on the home page.
Offer closed.
If you don't wish to convert to a monthly subscription just make sure you cancel auto renew before the second day by following the directions on the home page.
Offer closed.
13 Temmuz 2012 Cuma
China GDP Sparks Rally
On Day 7 they rallied. That's the mantra this morning as markets are higher around the globe. The big news overnight was China's latest GDP figures which showed the economy grew at a 7.6% rate. That's roughly in-line with the 7.7% consensus but higher than some of the whispers numbers that were looking for a number closer to 7.0%. There are also folks out there that believe the slowing growth in China will be met with a new stimulus program.
Elsewhere in Asia, Singapore's economy contracted 1.1% in the quarter. That's not a good showing, and highlights the global contraction we are seeing in economic growth. Overall Asian markets were higher overnight.
In Europe, Italy held a "successful" bond auction of 3-year notes that garnered a yield of 4.65% vs. 5.30% previously. Moody's also downgraded Italy's rating two notches to Baa2. Nonetheless markets across Europe are higher this morning, and the euro is bouncing as well.
In earnings news, bank bellwethers JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both reported earnings that are being met with buying by investors. This is helping boost the financial ETF more than 2% higher so far today.
In U.S. economic news, the Univ. of Mich. consumer sentiment survey came in below expectations at 72.0 vs. 73.2 the prior month. This data is mostly being shrugged off this morning.
The dollar index is lower today which is boosting commodities. Gold prices are rallying to $1592. Oil prices are higher near $86.90. Silver and copper prices are higher as well.
The 10-year yield is up a bit to 1.50%, still a very low absolute level. And the VIX is getting crushed down -8% below the 17 level on this morning's rally. I still think the VIX gets back above 20 this summer.
Trading comment: Yesterday we commented that although we are remaining defensive, the market has been down for 6 days and a bounce would not be surprising. I think many are breathing a sigh of relief that China's GDP figure wasn't worse than the headline print of 7.6%. But we still have plenty signs of slowing growth, and some potentially difficult earnings announcements ahead of us. So I don't want to be lulled into a sense of complacency by the price action today. Bounces are part of the trading process. It is also very likely that traders are covering short positions which have been profitable over the last week and closing them out ahead of the weekend to reduce event risk in case there is policy news out of China, the EU, or even the U.S.
Elsewhere in Asia, Singapore's economy contracted 1.1% in the quarter. That's not a good showing, and highlights the global contraction we are seeing in economic growth. Overall Asian markets were higher overnight.
In Europe, Italy held a "successful" bond auction of 3-year notes that garnered a yield of 4.65% vs. 5.30% previously. Moody's also downgraded Italy's rating two notches to Baa2. Nonetheless markets across Europe are higher this morning, and the euro is bouncing as well.
In earnings news, bank bellwethers JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both reported earnings that are being met with buying by investors. This is helping boost the financial ETF more than 2% higher so far today.
In U.S. economic news, the Univ. of Mich. consumer sentiment survey came in below expectations at 72.0 vs. 73.2 the prior month. This data is mostly being shrugged off this morning.
The dollar index is lower today which is boosting commodities. Gold prices are rallying to $1592. Oil prices are higher near $86.90. Silver and copper prices are higher as well.
The 10-year yield is up a bit to 1.50%, still a very low absolute level. And the VIX is getting crushed down -8% below the 17 level on this morning's rally. I still think the VIX gets back above 20 this summer.
Trading comment: Yesterday we commented that although we are remaining defensive, the market has been down for 6 days and a bounce would not be surprising. I think many are breathing a sigh of relief that China's GDP figure wasn't worse than the headline print of 7.6%. But we still have plenty signs of slowing growth, and some potentially difficult earnings announcements ahead of us. So I don't want to be lulled into a sense of complacency by the price action today. Bounces are part of the trading process. It is also very likely that traders are covering short positions which have been profitable over the last week and closing them out ahead of the weekend to reduce event risk in case there is policy news out of China, the EU, or even the U.S.
12 Temmuz 2012 Perşembe
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Is it a bear market, or is it a bull market, that is the question.
On one hand Europe is obviously in a recession. China is slowing dramatically, and the US economy is clearly in stall mode at best, and slowing rapidly at worst. That alone would suggest that a bear market has begun.
A break of the trend line usually indicates that the daily cycle has started its decline into a cycle low. If this turns out to be the case, then this cycle would have topped on day 21 which gives it quite a few days to move down into the cycle bottom. (Average daily cycle length trough to trough is about 35 to 40 days.) If it does turn out that the cycle topped on the 21st day then there is a strong chance of testing the June lows at the next cycle bottom.
As a matter of fact I think if we break below the June 25th half cycle low it will indicate that the intermediate cycle has topped and we should break below the June bottom if not during this daily cycle then probably a sharp break below that level during the next daily cycle.
On the other hand there are quite a few bullish signs that are popping up.
For starters this is an election year. Does anyone really think that the politicians won't pull out all the stops to try and keep the economy and markets inflated until the election?
Next; the advance decline line managed to make a new high even though the S&P was still 3% below its 52-week high. As Jason Goephert at sentiment trader.com has pointed out, this has almost always lead to new highs. As a matter of fact Jason noted that since 1940 there have been 13 similar occurrences and all but one led to the market making new highs within 3 months, on average within 18 days of the advance decline line breakout.
Another positive is that the CRB's rally out of its three year cycle low appears to be consolidating in a bull flag in preparation for another leg up. If stocks are caught in a bear market then the CRB should be rolling over rather quickly.
Oil is also resisting the short-term weakness in the stock market and appears to be consolidating the initial $10 thrust off of its intermediate bottom, and preparing for another leg up.
A different but related vein of thought is the US dollar index. Today was the 16th day of the dollars daily cycle (average duration 18 to 28 days). Which is just to say that it's getting late enough in the cycle that the dollar should start to move down again any time now. And a major concern for bears would be any move lower by the dollar as risk assets tend to trade inversely.
An even bigger concern is dollar sentiment. It's currently at levels that have generated intermediate tops almost without fail in the past.
Of course we won't know whether this is in fact what is happening until miners either break below the May bottom or move back above the June high. For the bulls the S&P needs to move above 1375, The CRB must generate another leg up, and gold must make a higher high by reclaiming the $1622 level. Those are the bullish lines in the sand.
For the bears they need to see the stock market drop below the half cycle low of 1310, The CRB must break downwards out of the consolidation, and gold has to drop below $1547.
I think the appropriate position for traders at the moment is to stay in cash until we see which one of these lines are going to be crossed first.
On one hand Europe is obviously in a recession. China is slowing dramatically, and the US economy is clearly in stall mode at best, and slowing rapidly at worst. That alone would suggest that a bear market has begun.
On top of that, the S&P broke through its daily cycle trendline today (although it did manage to rally back before the close).
A break of the trend line usually indicates that the daily cycle has started its decline into a cycle low. If this turns out to be the case, then this cycle would have topped on day 21 which gives it quite a few days to move down into the cycle bottom. (Average daily cycle length trough to trough is about 35 to 40 days.) If it does turn out that the cycle topped on the 21st day then there is a strong chance of testing the June lows at the next cycle bottom.
As a matter of fact I think if we break below the June 25th half cycle low it will indicate that the intermediate cycle has topped and we should break below the June bottom if not during this daily cycle then probably a sharp break below that level during the next daily cycle.
On the other hand there are quite a few bullish signs that are popping up.
For starters this is an election year. Does anyone really think that the politicians won't pull out all the stops to try and keep the economy and markets inflated until the election?
Next; the advance decline line managed to make a new high even though the S&P was still 3% below its 52-week high. As Jason Goephert at sentiment trader.com has pointed out, this has almost always lead to new highs. As a matter of fact Jason noted that since 1940 there have been 13 similar occurrences and all but one led to the market making new highs within 3 months, on average within 18 days of the advance decline line breakout.
Another positive is that the CRB's rally out of its three year cycle low appears to be consolidating in a bull flag in preparation for another leg up. If stocks are caught in a bear market then the CRB should be rolling over rather quickly.
Oil is also resisting the short-term weakness in the stock market and appears to be consolidating the initial $10 thrust off of its intermediate bottom, and preparing for another leg up.
A different but related vein of thought is the US dollar index. Today was the 16th day of the dollars daily cycle (average duration 18 to 28 days). Which is just to say that it's getting late enough in the cycle that the dollar should start to move down again any time now. And a major concern for bears would be any move lower by the dollar as risk assets tend to trade inversely.
An even bigger concern is dollar sentiment. It's currently at levels that have generated intermediate tops almost without fail in the past.
The fact that we still haven't seen a left translated daily cycle out of the dollar makes me think that the dollar still has an intermediate decline ahead of it. Considering that this week would be the 17th week in an intermediate cycle that usually runs 18 to 25 weeks and there's a good chance that this sentiment extreme is going to force an intermediate top as soon as this daily cycle runs out of steam.
A possible negative is the fact that gold seems unable to gain any upside traction in this new intermediate cycle. If the CRB has formed a three year cycle low why isn't gold generating any upside momentum?
If gold were to drop below $1547 it would indicate that a left translated daily cycle is in progress, and as many of you know a left translated daily cycle often indicates that the intermediate cycle has topped as well.
Another negative is the fact that mining stocks as represented by the GDX ETF did move below their prior daily cycle bottom. The one small sign of hope is the reversal today, which if it holds above the May lows could indicate that miners are just moving through a 1-2-3 reversal and this was just the #2 test of the lows.
For the bears they need to see the stock market drop below the half cycle low of 1310, The CRB must break downwards out of the consolidation, and gold has to drop below $1547.
I think the appropriate position for traders at the moment is to stay in cash until we see which one of these lines are going to be crossed first.
Why Are Investors Surprised By The Fed?
Global markets are weaker this morning, with all of the major indexes now trading back below their 50-day averages. The main culprit I'm hearing is that the market is disappointed with yesterday's FOMC minutes in that the Fed failed to call for more immediate quantitative easing.
I think this is silly. I wasn't the least bit surprised by the FOMC minutes. Members said they stand by ready to provide further support to the economy. But if you're on the FOMC, you know that the Fed has already provided ample liquidity and stimulus. As such, you would probably want to keep some powder dry in case things get worse again. But impatient investors act as if the Fed should throw out more QE every time we start to see a bit of a slowdown.
The fact of the matter is that this recovery has been slow and choppy, and will likely remain so. The deleveraging process takes years, and the Fed can't do all the heavy lifting. So that's my mini rant for this morning. And I suspect while the FOMC minutes are getting the headlines, a lot of the weakness in the market also has to do with reductions in revenue forecasts and slowing economic growth in China.
Asian markets were mostly lower last night. The only one that finished higher was China. The Bank of Korea surprised markets with a 25 basis point interest rate cut (to 3.00%). Employment figures in Australia were disappointing.
Europe is lower this morning after the ECB Monthly Bulletin suggested further downside risks remain a threat to the region. The euro has moved to a new multi-year low below $1.22, and peripheral bond yields are a bit higher.
In earnings news, INFY lowered revenue guidance and its stock is down sharply. MAR and PGR are also lower after reporting earnings. On the plus side are FAST, SAP, and TXI which are all trading higher following their earnings announcements.
Commodities are also lower today with gold prices down near $1555 and oil prices lower to $84.40. Copper and silver prices are also lower.
The 10-year yield has been unable to hold the 1.50% level and has slid to 1.48%. Amazing. As for the VIX, it has been up as much as 8% this morning back above the 19 level. But I think it will get back above 20 in the near-term.
Trading comment: I have been making cautious trading comments for awhile now, and the recent weakness supports that thesis. Although we had a rally at the end of June, I didn't think it would lead to new highs as we were starting to see more signs of slowing growth and concerns I had about Q2 earnings and cautions guidance we were likely to get from corporate managements. With the major indexes back below their respective 50-day averages, defense is still the best course of action for the near-term. I think we need to see a bigger build-up in bearish sentiment again before another good trading opportunity is upon us.
KAM Advisors has long positions in FAST; short positions in INFY
I think this is silly. I wasn't the least bit surprised by the FOMC minutes. Members said they stand by ready to provide further support to the economy. But if you're on the FOMC, you know that the Fed has already provided ample liquidity and stimulus. As such, you would probably want to keep some powder dry in case things get worse again. But impatient investors act as if the Fed should throw out more QE every time we start to see a bit of a slowdown.
The fact of the matter is that this recovery has been slow and choppy, and will likely remain so. The deleveraging process takes years, and the Fed can't do all the heavy lifting. So that's my mini rant for this morning. And I suspect while the FOMC minutes are getting the headlines, a lot of the weakness in the market also has to do with reductions in revenue forecasts and slowing economic growth in China.
Asian markets were mostly lower last night. The only one that finished higher was China. The Bank of Korea surprised markets with a 25 basis point interest rate cut (to 3.00%). Employment figures in Australia were disappointing.
Europe is lower this morning after the ECB Monthly Bulletin suggested further downside risks remain a threat to the region. The euro has moved to a new multi-year low below $1.22, and peripheral bond yields are a bit higher.
In earnings news, INFY lowered revenue guidance and its stock is down sharply. MAR and PGR are also lower after reporting earnings. On the plus side are FAST, SAP, and TXI which are all trading higher following their earnings announcements.
Commodities are also lower today with gold prices down near $1555 and oil prices lower to $84.40. Copper and silver prices are also lower.
The 10-year yield has been unable to hold the 1.50% level and has slid to 1.48%. Amazing. As for the VIX, it has been up as much as 8% this morning back above the 19 level. But I think it will get back above 20 in the near-term.
Trading comment: I have been making cautious trading comments for awhile now, and the recent weakness supports that thesis. Although we had a rally at the end of June, I didn't think it would lead to new highs as we were starting to see more signs of slowing growth and concerns I had about Q2 earnings and cautions guidance we were likely to get from corporate managements. With the major indexes back below their respective 50-day averages, defense is still the best course of action for the near-term. I think we need to see a bigger build-up in bearish sentiment again before another good trading opportunity is upon us.
KAM Advisors has long positions in FAST; short positions in INFY
11 Temmuz 2012 Çarşamba
China Trying To Talk Up Growth
The markets are mixed in early trading, with little in the way of a bounce following 4 straight down days. But it is still very early and it's how the market closes that counts.
Global markets have been mixed and newsflow has been light. Asian markets rallied late in their sessions after Premier Jiabao suggested that "it is important to promote a reasonable growth in investment". We get an update to Chinese GDP on Friday, and the Premier may be trying to talk up growth as global investors worry about the degree of the slowdown in China.
In Europe, markets are also mixed. Spain's market is more than 1% higher after their PM announced new austerity measures which are expected to trim the country's deficit. Some of the measures include tax hikes and spending cuts, which won't help boost growth but the bond market likes it and Spanish yields have eased back to 6.58%.
There weren't any earnings reports this morning, but electronics retailer HHGregg cut its earnings guidance and the stock is getting hit pretty hard. It is also weighing on BBY. More earnings reports start tomorrow and Friday.
Commodities are mostly higher. Oil prices are up to $85.60, but gold prices are flat near $1577.
The 10-year yield is flat near 1.50%. And the VIX is down slightly around 18.58.
Trading comment: I didn't think it would happen so quickly, but yesterday's decline brought the S&P 500 right back to its 50-day average support. Traders will be watching the 1335 level to see if it can hold. Earnings news has been mostly negative in the first few reports we've heard, and the companies that have warned about slower growth leading to reduced forecasts. That has been my concern coming into this earnings season, and I think it will still play out. There will be some very strong report that lead to big rallies, but I think those will be more the exception than the rule. As such, we are maintaining our defensive asset allocation and would look to add to ETF hedges if 50-day supports give way in the major indexes.
Global markets have been mixed and newsflow has been light. Asian markets rallied late in their sessions after Premier Jiabao suggested that "it is important to promote a reasonable growth in investment". We get an update to Chinese GDP on Friday, and the Premier may be trying to talk up growth as global investors worry about the degree of the slowdown in China.
In Europe, markets are also mixed. Spain's market is more than 1% higher after their PM announced new austerity measures which are expected to trim the country's deficit. Some of the measures include tax hikes and spending cuts, which won't help boost growth but the bond market likes it and Spanish yields have eased back to 6.58%.
There weren't any earnings reports this morning, but electronics retailer HHGregg cut its earnings guidance and the stock is getting hit pretty hard. It is also weighing on BBY. More earnings reports start tomorrow and Friday.
Commodities are mostly higher. Oil prices are up to $85.60, but gold prices are flat near $1577.
The 10-year yield is flat near 1.50%. And the VIX is down slightly around 18.58.
Trading comment: I didn't think it would happen so quickly, but yesterday's decline brought the S&P 500 right back to its 50-day average support. Traders will be watching the 1335 level to see if it can hold. Earnings news has been mostly negative in the first few reports we've heard, and the companies that have warned about slower growth leading to reduced forecasts. That has been my concern coming into this earnings season, and I think it will still play out. There will be some very strong report that lead to big rallies, but I think those will be more the exception than the rule. As such, we are maintaining our defensive asset allocation and would look to add to ETF hedges if 50-day supports give way in the major indexes.
10 Temmuz 2012 Salı
Lowered Guidance Coming From Semis
The market was higher in the early minutes of trading, but the gains have mostly been given back so far and all of the major indexes are slightly in the red currently.
The big news this morning was the latest round of lowered guidance, this time from some semi companies. Bellwether AMAT lowered its 2012 sales guidance and said EPS will come in at low end of range. AMD also lowered its Q2 guidance. And in the medical device arena, MAKO is getting absolutely killed after dramatically reducing its forecast for unit sales.
Overnight, the action in Asia was lower after import figures out of China came in at only 6.3%, half the rate that was expected. But European markets are higher this morning after EU finance ministers announced plans to expedite the 30 billion euro recapitalization of Spanish banks. That helped push Spanish bond yields lower to 6.74%, after they had been flirting with the 7.0% level.
The news hasn't helped the euro much, which is lower again vs. the dollar and near its June 2010 lows. Commodities are mixed with gold prices firm near $1590 but oil prices weaker around $85.00.
The 10-year yield is flat at 1.51%, nearing its June lows. As for the volatility index (VIX), it has found some recent support near 17 and bounced to 18.20 so far.
Trading comment: Given the news backdrop of companies lowering forward guidance, and more signs of slowing in China, I feel comfortable with our defensive posture. That said, I just heard a guy on CNBC remind us of the saying "never short a dull market". And the market does feel a bit dull lately. I think a key tell will be how the S&P 500 handles its next test of its 50-day average. If it breaks back below it, that would put the market it a more defensive position. We will have to await some earnings reports from some of the big boys before investors make decisions one way or the other.
The big news this morning was the latest round of lowered guidance, this time from some semi companies. Bellwether AMAT lowered its 2012 sales guidance and said EPS will come in at low end of range. AMD also lowered its Q2 guidance. And in the medical device arena, MAKO is getting absolutely killed after dramatically reducing its forecast for unit sales.
Overnight, the action in Asia was lower after import figures out of China came in at only 6.3%, half the rate that was expected. But European markets are higher this morning after EU finance ministers announced plans to expedite the 30 billion euro recapitalization of Spanish banks. That helped push Spanish bond yields lower to 6.74%, after they had been flirting with the 7.0% level.
The news hasn't helped the euro much, which is lower again vs. the dollar and near its June 2010 lows. Commodities are mixed with gold prices firm near $1590 but oil prices weaker around $85.00.
The 10-year yield is flat at 1.51%, nearing its June lows. As for the volatility index (VIX), it has found some recent support near 17 and bounced to 18.20 so far.
Trading comment: Given the news backdrop of companies lowering forward guidance, and more signs of slowing in China, I feel comfortable with our defensive posture. That said, I just heard a guy on CNBC remind us of the saying "never short a dull market". And the market does feel a bit dull lately. I think a key tell will be how the S&P 500 handles its next test of its 50-day average. If it breaks back below it, that would put the market it a more defensive position. We will have to await some earnings reports from some of the big boys before investors make decisions one way or the other.
9 Temmuz 2012 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings
Back in the saddle after some time away last week for the holiday. Re-entry is always challenging, but time to shake off the cobwebs and get down to business. The market has opened in slightly weak trading following Friday's disappointing jobs numbers and cautious comments out of China.
Last week's jobs numbers further support the thesis of a slowing economy. I haven't done a full roundup yet of the other econ data that came out, but the question at this juncture isn't if the US is going to slow down but rather how much? Also, how much of this slow growth environment is priced in to earnings?
Asian markets were down overnight, led by a -2.4% drop in China. Premier Wen Jiabao warned of the potential for "huge downward pressure" on China's economy, citing weaker demand out of Europe. Chinese banks were also under pressure as traders price in more interest rate cuts by the PBOC.
Europe's markets are also lower today as peripheral yields are on the rise again, and yields in Spain top the 7.0% level again. Euro finance ministers meet today in Brussels to discuss the ongoing issues.
Merger Monday came thru again today with a big merger between Wellpoint (WLP) and Amerigroup (AGP) with WLP paying $92 per share for the latter. Also, Thomson Reuters (TRI) will acquire FX Alliance (FX) for $22 per share.
The highly anticipated Q2 earnings season kicks off today with Alcoa reporting after the close. Alcoa isn't that much of a market mover, and will likely make cautions comments given slowing global markets and weak commodity prices. But there are some big heavyweights (GOOG, JPM, WFC, etc) reporting later this week which could produce stronger reactions. Overall, I think that the upcoming earnings season will produce more disappointments that upside surprises with a lot of cautious guidance.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 continues to pullback from its recent rally to the 1375 level. The SPX is still above its 50-day average support, which comes into play around 1338 as of now. We are marinating our conservative portfolio postures as we enter the summer doldrums. If the market pulled back enough I would probably add some stock exposure for a trade, but at this juncture I think the market could be fairly rangebound for the near-term.
Last week's jobs numbers further support the thesis of a slowing economy. I haven't done a full roundup yet of the other econ data that came out, but the question at this juncture isn't if the US is going to slow down but rather how much? Also, how much of this slow growth environment is priced in to earnings?
Asian markets were down overnight, led by a -2.4% drop in China. Premier Wen Jiabao warned of the potential for "huge downward pressure" on China's economy, citing weaker demand out of Europe. Chinese banks were also under pressure as traders price in more interest rate cuts by the PBOC.
Europe's markets are also lower today as peripheral yields are on the rise again, and yields in Spain top the 7.0% level again. Euro finance ministers meet today in Brussels to discuss the ongoing issues.
Merger Monday came thru again today with a big merger between Wellpoint (WLP) and Amerigroup (AGP) with WLP paying $92 per share for the latter. Also, Thomson Reuters (TRI) will acquire FX Alliance (FX) for $22 per share.
The highly anticipated Q2 earnings season kicks off today with Alcoa reporting after the close. Alcoa isn't that much of a market mover, and will likely make cautions comments given slowing global markets and weak commodity prices. But there are some big heavyweights (GOOG, JPM, WFC, etc) reporting later this week which could produce stronger reactions. Overall, I think that the upcoming earnings season will produce more disappointments that upside surprises with a lot of cautious guidance.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 continues to pullback from its recent rally to the 1375 level. The SPX is still above its 50-day average support, which comes into play around 1338 as of now. We are marinating our conservative portfolio postures as we enter the summer doldrums. If the market pulled back enough I would probably add some stock exposure for a trade, but at this juncture I think the market could be fairly rangebound for the near-term.
Dan Gross of Yahoo! Finance Interviews Larry Kudlow
MITT ROMNEY NEEDS TO SEND A CLEAR MESSAGE TO VOTERS ABOUT HIS ECONOMIC PLAN
Larry Kudlow, anchor of The Kudlow Report on CNBC and a budget official in the first Reagan White House, says this year's presidential election will be a referendum on the economy and President Obama.
The U.S. unemployment rate remains staggeringly high above 8 percent and is improving at a snails pace. The June jobs report Friday showed jobs were up from the previous month with 80,000 payrolls added, but still fell below expectations of 100,000 jobs. The problem facing Obama is the stark fact that no President since WWII has won re-election with unemployment above 7.4 percent.
Kudlow says Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney can win the election on his economic policies, but he has to communicate them better to voters.
"The trick for Mitt is to make the case with clarity that he's the guy to get jobs and growth going again," Kudlow tells The Daily Ticker's Dan Gross.
He says Romney should take a page from Reagan's 1980 election playbook: limit government, roll back spending, roll back regulation, strong defense, curb inflation.
"Mitt Romney needs to figure out what his four or five bullets will be," says Kudlow. "He has to say what he will do to turn around the country."
Kudlow says Romney has a plan but "hasn't marketed it well." He argues that Romney will hammer Obama on raising taxes including those to pay for Obama's health care plan, which the Supreme Court ruled last week was constitutional. But Romney needs to be optimistic and specific. The former Massachusetts Governor has to spell out he will "grow jobs and the economy, limit government deficits and debt so we won't be like Greece." Romney will get plenty of opportunities to sell his platform but Kudlow says his acceptance speech at the Republican convention in Tampa in late August will be "absolutely the most important speech in defining his campaign."
7 Temmuz 2012 Cumartesi
El Padrino
 |
| I stayed in this Teepee in Michael's back yard |
I'm Looking for a Ride from VT to CA!
I've been in Vermont for two weeks so far. Now I'm looking to go from Vermont to San Diego, California, or at least to the Colorado/Utah area (where a friend can take me to San Diego). Anybody know of a ride going that way? I have a Peace Corps reunion August 2nd in San Diego, the first time I'll have seen most those Peace Corps friends in 25 years.I take rides already going, not special trips for me. The point is to not create more commerce, but to use what's already running and existing.
Road Trip with Leslie
My friend Leslie came from LA and swung through Fruita, Colorado to pick me up and bring me to Vermont on her way to see her father in New Hampshire. If you read that book about me, Leslie is the same friend who took Mel and me to Alaska in her van 14 years ago. This time around, I felt Leslie and I passed a critical point and our friendship became even more special to me. When friends travel together, it can be more intimate than romantic relationships in some ways, because you're with the person 24 hours a day. We started getting on each others' nerves after the third day and got into a heated quarrel. Then we talked it through and a new light of understanding went on for me. After getting over that hump, I realized a bond had happened. I feel a deep love for Leslie now that I hadn't realized before.Godfather to the World's Cutest Baby!
 |
| Baby Blessing at the Shao Shan Temple Me on the far left, between the Zen priests. Michael and Sarika (in blue dress) holding baby Satya |
 |
| Abbot Taihaku, and me Reading from the Bible. Scriptures, prayers, and blessings were read from Hindu, Buddhist, Jewish, and Christian family traditions. |
Now I'm staying at Michael and Sarika's place in Montepelier. Michael is also in the book - my naturopathic physician friend I went to India with. Michael and Sarika asked me to be the godfather of their baby, Satya Daisy, so I came here for her blessing ceremony. I had no idea it would be such a big event. Michael's mother is Huguenot from the Alsace region of France, and her brother, nieces, and nephews came all the way from France. In France, a baby's baptism ceremony is right up there in importance with weddings and funerals. Sarika's parents came, as well as Michael's father's brother, and many friends. Michael's and my mutual old Oy friends, Eric, with his daughter Serena, and Gordon, with his wife Kay, came too. There were about 50 people. Michael's family spoke mostly French, and Sarika's family spoke Hindi half the time, meaning I didn't know what was going on 70% of the time!
In Michael's family's tradition, two godmothers and two godfathers are chosen, making me one of four.
Baby Satya's "Baptism" was actually an inter-faith blessing, combining the family ancestral traditions. It took place at the Shao Shan Soto Zen Buddhist temple near Montpelier. Because Sarika's family is Hindu and Michael's is Jewish and Christian, Hindu, Jewish, and Christian scriptures, blessings, and prayers were read, as well as a Zen Buddhist metta prayer.
For the sake of the Guiness Book of World Records I must announce that it's unanimous by all here that Satya Daisy is the world's cutest baby.
 |
| Satya सत्य |
..................................................................................
Someone asked me again why I live without money, so I decided to post my answer here. It's more concise than what you can glean from the website:
Why Should I Explain Why I Live Without Money?
Why should snails or foxes or trees explain why they live without money? But the very nature of both words and money is explanation of cause and effect: why. It would be nice to live in a world where a tree doesn't have to explain itself. But in the commercial world forests are clearcut and animals are going extinct because they can't validate themselves with words. Silly, I know. Hence, my words of "why" for a world that must know "why".
Review of Why I Live Without Money:
1. To be authentic. To act expecting reward is ulterior motivation. To act for the instinctual sake of acting is to be authentic, be real. Doing is its own reward. Money represents doing for reward, ulterior motivation. Choose love or prostitution. In Buddha's words, choose Nirvana or material wealth. In Jesus' words: choose God or mammon. In other words, choose Reality or falsehood.
2. For fun. It's fun to do for the sake of doing. Why put it off for a future reward that will never come? Why not enjoy every moment of life, rather than trade one moment for another?
3. For political reasons. No good can ever come from being inauthentic. Look at the world's politics & business and judge for yourself. Are they functional? Are those who participate being authentic? Why participate in an inauthentic game?
 |
| Free Foraged Food in Montpelier, VT |
4. For economic reasons. Nature is in balance, and it functions without money. Is commercial civilization in balance? Look around: what nation on earth can balance its budget? What nation on earth lives in balance with its environment? Nature functions on a pay-it-forward economy, not a barter or money economy. I propose that our economy will never ever be functional until we practice pay-it-forward, which only happens by doing for the sake of doing, without being conscious of credit and debt.
5. For spiritual reasons. Doing, not for the sake of reward, and giving up the illusion of possessions, is the essence of the world's religions, the one thing they all agree upon, yet most ignored by their own followers. It's called faith, which is trust, trust in the natural law of the universe, that what goes around comes around. What would happen if we practiced faith rather than just talked about it?
This person also asked,
"When do you find yourself most limited?"
Only when I'm limited by my mind, wanting what I don't have, being impatient, forgetting that everything I need and want exactly comes when I need it. Limitation is only a thought in the mind. Give it up, and limitation ceases.
Idolatry for Beginners (CBC Radio Interview)
Paul Kennedy interviews Stephen Batchelor, Lorna Dueck, Mark Sundeen, and me about what idolatry means. I keep thinking how we put inanimate objects and symbols (ideologies, words and money) above living things. Most our wars and acts of violence are not about self-defence, not about reality, but about symbols, ideas in the head, including money. We mistake symbol for the thing it symbolizes. "The Name that can be named is not the Eternal Name" (Tao Te Ching 1).
What I like about this interview is it goes deep into both Buddhist and Christian thought. When you eliminate the idolatry of symbol, go beyond symbol to Principle, you find that Buddhism and Christianity speak the same thing. Only the mind trapped in idolatry cannot recognize this.
What I like about this interview is it goes deep into both Buddhist and Christian thought. When you eliminate the idolatry of symbol, go beyond symbol to Principle, you find that Buddhism and Christianity speak the same thing. Only the mind trapped in idolatry cannot recognize this.
Kaydol:
Kayıtlar (Atom)