The market pulled back in early trading this morning but the dip proved brief as the indexes have already started to climb back into positive territory. The major indexes are poised for more new highs, and the S&P 500 approaches the 1600 level.
Normally you would expect investor enthusiasm to be reaching very high levels with the market rallying like this, and speculation running rampant. But a recent look at several investor sentiment surveys reveals that is far from the case. Most of the surveys we track have showed more bears than bulls in the polls for the last few weeks. That is a very odd occurrence, and tells us that most investors don't trust this rally.
Of course, the market would more likely to top if investor complacency was near its peak. But with optimism running somewhat low, it looks more like the market can keep climbing the proverbial 'wall of worry' in the near-term.
Economic data was solid this morning. The Case-Shiller home price index for February rose 9.3% on top of an 8.1% gain in the previous month. And March's number is likely to be strong as well. The latest consumer confidence reading rose to 68.1 from 59.7 last month. And the Employment Cost Index cooled to 0.3% in Q1 from 0.5% last quarter.
Earnings season is still in high gear with roughly 100 companies reporting last night and this morning.
Stocks rising on earnings: ESRX, DDD, HIG, SU, AMG, DPZ, ECL, HCP, NEE, HOT
Stocks falling on earnings: FN, JEC, MAS, NEM, CMI, DBD, MPC, NUAN, PFE, BWLD
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight. China remained closed for a holiday. Taiwan's GDP fell -0.8% last quarter. And the Bank of Korea governor said that the effectiveness of global quantitative easing policies is decreasing.
Europe's markets are mostly lower today. German retail sales fell -2.8%. Italy's unemployment remained at 11.5%, while Eurozone unemployment ticked higher to 12.1%.
The 10-year yield is up slightly to 1.67%. And the VIX is basically flat at 13.75.
Trading comment: No change to recent comments about our strategy here. We continue to want to add selectively to equities by focusing on companies that reported solid earnings recently. We prefer not to bottom dip in stocks that recently disappointed and saw their stocks have big drops. More often those weak quarters persist into next quarter and the stocks continue to lag. We prefer to focus on those stocks that continue to lead the market. In Q1 that was mostly defensive type stocks, but we are on the lookout for more growth stocks to start to resume their leadership. AAPL is back above its 50-day average after strong demand for their debt offering which will fund their increased buyback and dividend strategy.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, ESRX, DDD, NEE, PFE
30 Nisan 2013 Salı
DOLLAR COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN
I've been pointing out for several months now that the recent rally in the dollar was a mirage, an illusion generated by the yen, euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all dropping into yearly, or intermediate cycle lows together. This selling pressure in the four major currencies that make up the dollar index spawned what looked like a strong dollar.
With Bernanke printing 85 billion of them a month, there is no such thing as a "strong dollar". I've been saying for months that once these four currencies completed their bottoming cluster it would be the dollar's turn to crash. The recent collapse in the yen was 23%. The Pound 9%. I think the dollar will be somewhere in between with a loss of 9-12% as it drops down into it's yearly cycle low.
As this process starts to accelerate over the next couple of months the dollar bulls are going to get a rude awakening, as our currency shows it's true colors. The acceleration began today as the dollar has now completed a lower low and a lower high.
Once major support is breached at 78.50 there will be nothing to stop, what I think will be a waterfall decline, until the dollar reaches the 73-75 zone.
And don't forget this is just the beginning. The much larger degree, 3 year cycle low, isn't due until late next year.
It's time for the unintended consequences of QE infinity to come home to roost.
This should drive either another C-wave in gold. Or as I'm now starting to believe, gold may be in the initial stage of the bubble phase of the bull market. 2015 will be 15 years. That's about a normal duration for a secular bull run.
Let's face it, commonsense would tell most people that you can't just print 85 billion dollars a month and not have something bad happen. The last time the Fed embarked on this kind of insane policy it was during the real estate bubble implosion. Instead of rescuing the housing market the Fed drove oil to $150 a barrel and spiked food prices around the world, triggering riots and wars in many third world countries.
I expect the same game plan this time is going to reap the same results.
We have all the ingredients in place. Gold has probably completed it's yearly cycle low. The COT is showing a max bullish position by commercial traders. Before every bubble phase there is always a devastating correction that convinces everyone that the bull is over. I would say that describes pretty much what has happened over the last 6 months.
And to top it all off the recent manipulation to run the stops below $1523 has triggered massive shortages in the physical market, especially in silver.
Now add to that a collapsing dollar over the next year and a half and everything is in place for gold to generate at the very least another C-wave advance and in my opinion we probably have the conditions necessary for the bubble phase to begin.
With Bernanke printing 85 billion of them a month, there is no such thing as a "strong dollar". I've been saying for months that once these four currencies completed their bottoming cluster it would be the dollar's turn to crash. The recent collapse in the yen was 23%. The Pound 9%. I think the dollar will be somewhere in between with a loss of 9-12% as it drops down into it's yearly cycle low.
As this process starts to accelerate over the next couple of months the dollar bulls are going to get a rude awakening, as our currency shows it's true colors. The acceleration began today as the dollar has now completed a lower low and a lower high.
Once major support is breached at 78.50 there will be nothing to stop, what I think will be a waterfall decline, until the dollar reaches the 73-75 zone.
And don't forget this is just the beginning. The much larger degree, 3 year cycle low, isn't due until late next year.
It's time for the unintended consequences of QE infinity to come home to roost.
This should drive either another C-wave in gold. Or as I'm now starting to believe, gold may be in the initial stage of the bubble phase of the bull market. 2015 will be 15 years. That's about a normal duration for a secular bull run.
Let's face it, commonsense would tell most people that you can't just print 85 billion dollars a month and not have something bad happen. The last time the Fed embarked on this kind of insane policy it was during the real estate bubble implosion. Instead of rescuing the housing market the Fed drove oil to $150 a barrel and spiked food prices around the world, triggering riots and wars in many third world countries.
I expect the same game plan this time is going to reap the same results.
We have all the ingredients in place. Gold has probably completed it's yearly cycle low. The COT is showing a max bullish position by commercial traders. Before every bubble phase there is always a devastating correction that convinces everyone that the bull is over. I would say that describes pretty much what has happened over the last 6 months.
And to top it all off the recent manipulation to run the stops below $1523 has triggered massive shortages in the physical market, especially in silver.
Now add to that a collapsing dollar over the next year and a half and everything is in place for gold to generate at the very least another C-wave advance and in my opinion we probably have the conditions necessary for the bubble phase to begin.
29 Nisan 2013 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings
The markets are shooting higher out of the gate this morning with the S&P 500 getting nearer to new highs again. This morning the SPX topped the 1590 level, but it needs to hit 1598 for a new high. That doesn't look like it will be today's business but we wouldn't be surprised to see it soon.
In economic news, pending home sales rose a better that expected +1.5% in March, which it a 3-year high for this datapoint. Homebuilder stocks are higher again today.
There were a handful of earnings reports this morning:
Stocks higher on earnings: ETN, HNT, MCY
Stocks lower on earnings: L, ROP
Asian markets were mixed overnight, but both Japan and China were closed for holidays.
Europe's markets are higher today after the new Italian government was sworn in over the weekend. Elsewhere, Spanish retail sales fell -8.9% and a Eurozone business and consumer survey declined to 88.6 from 90.1.
The dollar is lower today helping to boost commodities. Gold prices are higher near $1466. Oil prices are up to $93.65. Ag prices, silver and copper are all higher today also.
The 10-year yield continues to languish near low levels around 1.66%. And the VIX is down 1% today near 13.50. As we have been saying recently, when the VIX closed below the 15 level again it was likely an indication that traders were expecting more rallies in the market. Of course, selloffs have been few and far between thus far in 2013.
Trading comment: Buy the dip remains the only mantra that has worked this year. Of course, many strategists continue to look for that 5-10% pullback that has proved elusive thus far. The most recent dip was more of the 2-3% variety. Beneath the major indexes we continue to look for companies that reported solid earnings and whose stocks either pulled back after an initial spike higher, or those stocks that are retaking their overhead 50-day averages and putting themselves in position to work higher. AAPL is getting closer to testing its 50-day again, which could open up some running room for the stock to work higher.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL
In economic news, pending home sales rose a better that expected +1.5% in March, which it a 3-year high for this datapoint. Homebuilder stocks are higher again today.
There were a handful of earnings reports this morning:
Stocks higher on earnings: ETN, HNT, MCY
Stocks lower on earnings: L, ROP
Asian markets were mixed overnight, but both Japan and China were closed for holidays.
Europe's markets are higher today after the new Italian government was sworn in over the weekend. Elsewhere, Spanish retail sales fell -8.9% and a Eurozone business and consumer survey declined to 88.6 from 90.1.
The dollar is lower today helping to boost commodities. Gold prices are higher near $1466. Oil prices are up to $93.65. Ag prices, silver and copper are all higher today also.
The 10-year yield continues to languish near low levels around 1.66%. And the VIX is down 1% today near 13.50. As we have been saying recently, when the VIX closed below the 15 level again it was likely an indication that traders were expecting more rallies in the market. Of course, selloffs have been few and far between thus far in 2013.
Trading comment: Buy the dip remains the only mantra that has worked this year. Of course, many strategists continue to look for that 5-10% pullback that has proved elusive thus far. The most recent dip was more of the 2-3% variety. Beneath the major indexes we continue to look for companies that reported solid earnings and whose stocks either pulled back after an initial spike higher, or those stocks that are retaking their overhead 50-day averages and putting themselves in position to work higher. AAPL is getting closer to testing its 50-day again, which could open up some running room for the stock to work higher.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL
24 Nisan 2013 Çarşamba
Recent Bounce In Stocks Came On Light Volume
The stock market is slightly lower in early trading on the heels of a solid 3-day bounce. But for the most part volume levels have been relatively light on these rallies. Investors prefer to see volume lighten up on selloffs and then pickup during rallies. That signals some conviction behind the buying. Yesterday's volume was slightly higher, but the AP Twitter glitch likely boosted volume figures.
Earnings reports continue to roll in, with this probably being the busiest week. The big report last night was obviously Apple. AAPL beat on the top and bottom lines, but gross margins were a little light and guidance for next quarter was pretty conservative (below consensus). That said, I was surprised that the company sold as many iPhones as they did (37.4 million) given how everyone thought that number was going to be weak. iPads sold was also solid.
And the capital return was pretty good also. AAPL boosted their stock buyback from $10 billion to $60 billion. That's a big jump and the buyback should start soon, which could help put a floor under the stock. Also, management upped the dividend by 15% pushing the current yield on the stock to 3.0%. That's a pretty solid yield and I think one that long-term investors will find attractive. AAPL now trades at less than 10x next year's earnings, a discount to its growth rate. Seems like a pretty good bet at these levels.
Stocks rising on earnings: BRCM, USNA, YUM, GD, BA, LO, LL, NOC, WM, WLP, TMO
Stocks falling on earnings: AMGN, T, CREE, AWAY, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, LLY, PG, TROW, TUP, WHR
Asian markets were higher across the board overnight. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its key rate steady at 2.50%. S&P said Australia runs the risk of losing its 'AAA' rating if it doesn't start to show more commitment to reducing its budget deficit.
Europe's markets are mostly higher, while Italy continues to underperform. The German business climate index fell to 104.4 from 106.7 last month.
Commodities are higher today as the dollar index is weak. Oil prices are up to $90.33 and gold prices are higher near $1426. Copper prices are bouncing today also.
The 10-year yield is up just a touch to 1.71%. And the VIX is flattish near 13.55.
Trading comment: Earnings season continues to be a mixed back for the most part. The list above shows as many stocks falling on earnings as rising. That makes it tough to try to game a stock's earnings report. We prefer to focus on stocks that report solid earnings reports and then look to buy or add to those stocks on pullbacks. Leadership in this market has mostly come from defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities and consumer staples. If the market remains strong, we would expect more traditional growth stocks to start to take a leading role.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, AMGN, LL
Earnings reports continue to roll in, with this probably being the busiest week. The big report last night was obviously Apple. AAPL beat on the top and bottom lines, but gross margins were a little light and guidance for next quarter was pretty conservative (below consensus). That said, I was surprised that the company sold as many iPhones as they did (37.4 million) given how everyone thought that number was going to be weak. iPads sold was also solid.
And the capital return was pretty good also. AAPL boosted their stock buyback from $10 billion to $60 billion. That's a big jump and the buyback should start soon, which could help put a floor under the stock. Also, management upped the dividend by 15% pushing the current yield on the stock to 3.0%. That's a pretty solid yield and I think one that long-term investors will find attractive. AAPL now trades at less than 10x next year's earnings, a discount to its growth rate. Seems like a pretty good bet at these levels.
Stocks rising on earnings: BRCM, USNA, YUM, GD, BA, LO, LL, NOC, WM, WLP, TMO
Stocks falling on earnings: AMGN, T, CREE, AWAY, JNPR, PNRA, VMW, LLY, PG, TROW, TUP, WHR
Asian markets were higher across the board overnight. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its key rate steady at 2.50%. S&P said Australia runs the risk of losing its 'AAA' rating if it doesn't start to show more commitment to reducing its budget deficit.
Europe's markets are mostly higher, while Italy continues to underperform. The German business climate index fell to 104.4 from 106.7 last month.
Commodities are higher today as the dollar index is weak. Oil prices are up to $90.33 and gold prices are higher near $1426. Copper prices are bouncing today also.
The 10-year yield is up just a touch to 1.71%. And the VIX is flattish near 13.55.
Trading comment: Earnings season continues to be a mixed back for the most part. The list above shows as many stocks falling on earnings as rising. That makes it tough to try to game a stock's earnings report. We prefer to focus on stocks that report solid earnings reports and then look to buy or add to those stocks on pullbacks. Leadership in this market has mostly come from defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities and consumer staples. If the market remains strong, we would expect more traditional growth stocks to start to take a leading role.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, AMGN, LL
23 Nisan 2013 Salı
Stocks Rally For Third Consecutive Day
The markets are really strong out of the gate this morning. Of course readers know I prefer a market that starts out weak and ends strong, so we will have to see if this rally holds up into the finish. Sometimes when markets are too strong too early it gives bears ample time to try to knock the market lower.
The new home sales report was very strong this morning at 417,000 units. That's the highest rate we've seen since the fall of 2008. Homebuilding stocks are rallying on this data.
We also had a bevy of earnings reports last night and this morning, and it looks like we are seeing more positive reactions to earnings than negative right now. To wit:
Stocks rising on earnings: NFLX, VECO, TXN, COH, LMT, TRV, WAT, PNR, DD
Stocks falling on earnings: UTX, R, PCAR, CIT
Asian markets were down across the board overnight, led lower by China after some disappointing economic data. China's HSBC Manuf. PMI fell to 50.5 from 51.6 last month and the weak export component suggests slowing demand for Chinese goods.
In Europe markets are higher despite some weak PMI reports. Frand and Germany both reported weaker manuf PMI readings while the overall Eurozone PMI slipped to 46.5 from 46.8. All of the PMI readings this morning were below 50 which suggests further contraction in the manuf. sector. Also, the president of the ECB said that the policy of austerity "has reached its limits".
The dollar index is higher today and helping to push commodities lower. Oil prices are down a touch to $88.35. Gold prices are lower near $1410. Copper prices are also lower, as are most ag prices.
The 10-year yield is roughly flat near 1.70%. And the VIX reversed lower yesterday and is moving lower again today down to the 13.70 area. Another close below the 15 level would be a welcome sign to the bulls.
Trading comment: We mentioned recently when the S&P 500 was testing its 50-day average that with so many investors looking for any pullback to get more invested that it would not be all that surprising to see dip buyers step in fairly quickly. That seems to be the case so far as the SPX has bounced from that test of the 1540 level and is currently topping 1575. The one red flag is that these rallies have come on lighter volume, which would cause us to question the conviction behind the buying. But you can't ignore the price action. The recent highs in the market were SPX 1597. But I would expect to see a little more backing and filling action before the market is ready to breakout to new highs again.
The new home sales report was very strong this morning at 417,000 units. That's the highest rate we've seen since the fall of 2008. Homebuilding stocks are rallying on this data.
We also had a bevy of earnings reports last night and this morning, and it looks like we are seeing more positive reactions to earnings than negative right now. To wit:
Stocks rising on earnings: NFLX, VECO, TXN, COH, LMT, TRV, WAT, PNR, DD
Stocks falling on earnings: UTX, R, PCAR, CIT
Asian markets were down across the board overnight, led lower by China after some disappointing economic data. China's HSBC Manuf. PMI fell to 50.5 from 51.6 last month and the weak export component suggests slowing demand for Chinese goods.
In Europe markets are higher despite some weak PMI reports. Frand and Germany both reported weaker manuf PMI readings while the overall Eurozone PMI slipped to 46.5 from 46.8. All of the PMI readings this morning were below 50 which suggests further contraction in the manuf. sector. Also, the president of the ECB said that the policy of austerity "has reached its limits".
The dollar index is higher today and helping to push commodities lower. Oil prices are down a touch to $88.35. Gold prices are lower near $1410. Copper prices are also lower, as are most ag prices.
The 10-year yield is roughly flat near 1.70%. And the VIX reversed lower yesterday and is moving lower again today down to the 13.70 area. Another close below the 15 level would be a welcome sign to the bulls.
Trading comment: We mentioned recently when the S&P 500 was testing its 50-day average that with so many investors looking for any pullback to get more invested that it would not be all that surprising to see dip buyers step in fairly quickly. That seems to be the case so far as the SPX has bounced from that test of the 1540 level and is currently topping 1575. The one red flag is that these rallies have come on lighter volume, which would cause us to question the conviction behind the buying. But you can't ignore the price action. The recent highs in the market were SPX 1597. But I would expect to see a little more backing and filling action before the market is ready to breakout to new highs again.
22 Nisan 2013 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings
Markets were higher only briefly after the opening bell today, but have since slipped back into negative territory. The Nasdaq is still slightly higher thanks to AAPL and MSFT which are both higher today.
In economic news, March existing home sales hit a rate of 4.92 million units which was below expectations. Homebuilding stocks are weaker today on this news.
Earnings reports continue to roll in, and it will be a busy week this week. Probably the biggest report investors are waiting for is AAPL on Tuesday evening. A few stocks trading higher this morning after report earnings include HAL, BEAV, and SIX. Stocks trading down after earnings are CAT and PHG.
Asian markets were higher across the board overnight. China was flat after reporting that non-performing bank loans rose 20.7% in March. Japan rallied 1.9% after the G20 meetings failed to accuse the country of devaluing its currency. In Taiwan, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
European markets are also higher today after Italy finally elected a president, 87-year old Giorgio Napolitano. Elsewhere, ECB members have commented that the ECB could cut rates further if economies continue to deteriorate.
The dollar is a bit higher this morning and commodities are mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold trading up to $1420. But copper prices are lower again. Oil prices are also down a bit to $87.90, and ag prices are lower today as well.
The 10-year yield is down to 1.68%, testing last week's low of 1.67%. And the volatility index bounced from that 15 level that we have been citing to 15.80 currently.
Trading comment: The market gave back its early gains, but so far the selling pressure hasn't been to great. It will be a battle today with bulls trying to defend the SPX 1550 level and bears trying to push it back below its 50-day average (now near 1544). As to whether the market still has more work to do in this most recent correction, we are leaning towards that being the case. But we are also mindful of the fact that a LOT of investors have been looking for any pullback to put more money to work in equities, so it wouldn't be all that surprising if these folks got impatient and started buying sooner rather than later.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL
In economic news, March existing home sales hit a rate of 4.92 million units which was below expectations. Homebuilding stocks are weaker today on this news.
Earnings reports continue to roll in, and it will be a busy week this week. Probably the biggest report investors are waiting for is AAPL on Tuesday evening. A few stocks trading higher this morning after report earnings include HAL, BEAV, and SIX. Stocks trading down after earnings are CAT and PHG.
Asian markets were higher across the board overnight. China was flat after reporting that non-performing bank loans rose 20.7% in March. Japan rallied 1.9% after the G20 meetings failed to accuse the country of devaluing its currency. In Taiwan, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
European markets are also higher today after Italy finally elected a president, 87-year old Giorgio Napolitano. Elsewhere, ECB members have commented that the ECB could cut rates further if economies continue to deteriorate.
The dollar is a bit higher this morning and commodities are mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold trading up to $1420. But copper prices are lower again. Oil prices are also down a bit to $87.90, and ag prices are lower today as well.
The 10-year yield is down to 1.68%, testing last week's low of 1.67%. And the volatility index bounced from that 15 level that we have been citing to 15.80 currently.
Trading comment: The market gave back its early gains, but so far the selling pressure hasn't been to great. It will be a battle today with bulls trying to defend the SPX 1550 level and bears trying to push it back below its 50-day average (now near 1544). As to whether the market still has more work to do in this most recent correction, we are leaning towards that being the case. But we are also mindful of the fact that a LOT of investors have been looking for any pullback to put more money to work in equities, so it wouldn't be all that surprising if these folks got impatient and started buying sooner rather than later.
KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL
19 Nisan 2013 Cuma
S&P 500 Bounces From Technical Support Levels
The markets are bouncing this morning after the S&P tested some key technical levels yesterday that we discussed. Of note is that the Dow is down while the S&P is up due to the fact that a few big stocks like IBM, MCD, and GE are all trading lower after earnings and dragging the Dow into negative territory.
Getting back to the SPX, yesterday we talked about a test at the 50-day average around SPX 1543 and said that we could get a bounce from that level. Also, the SPX has tested that 1540-ish level three times now. So we could get more of a bounce in the short-term, but its hard to tell at this point if the recent correction is finished or has more work ahead.
Earnings reactions have been mixed and volatile again, with some big swings.
Stocks rising on earnings: GOOG, BGS, HON, CMG, MSFT, COF, ALGN, VMI
Stocks falling on earnings: IBM, GE, MCD, ISRG, WIT, BHI, SAP, STT, BGG
Markets in Asian ended higher overnight led by Hong Kong and China. Although Goldman Sachs lowered its GDP expectations for China in 2013 from 8.2% to 7.8%.
Europe's markets are also higher this morning despite some weak industrial production figures in Italy and Spain as well as the continued inability for Italy to elect a new president.
Commodities are higher with oil prices up to $88 and gold back above the $1400 level just barely.
The 10-year yield is higher to 1.70%. And the VIX which topped 18 yesterday has reversed lower and is down another 13% back near the 15 level.
Trading comment: This is a nice bounce today, but will need to see some follow through to sound the all clear signal. We think it is more likely that the market continues to chop around these levels and build a new base. The reactions in normally steady stocks like IBM show how risky it can be to buy individual names ahead of their earnings reports. Our strategy remains to wait to see how stocks react to earnings and to buy stocks that report solid earnings and react positively, preferably on pullbacks. After any correction usually a new group of stocks emerges to lead the next rally and that is what we are watching for.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BGS, GOOG, IBM
Getting back to the SPX, yesterday we talked about a test at the 50-day average around SPX 1543 and said that we could get a bounce from that level. Also, the SPX has tested that 1540-ish level three times now. So we could get more of a bounce in the short-term, but its hard to tell at this point if the recent correction is finished or has more work ahead.
Earnings reactions have been mixed and volatile again, with some big swings.
Stocks rising on earnings: GOOG, BGS, HON, CMG, MSFT, COF, ALGN, VMI
Stocks falling on earnings: IBM, GE, MCD, ISRG, WIT, BHI, SAP, STT, BGG
Markets in Asian ended higher overnight led by Hong Kong and China. Although Goldman Sachs lowered its GDP expectations for China in 2013 from 8.2% to 7.8%.
Europe's markets are also higher this morning despite some weak industrial production figures in Italy and Spain as well as the continued inability for Italy to elect a new president.
Commodities are higher with oil prices up to $88 and gold back above the $1400 level just barely.
The 10-year yield is higher to 1.70%. And the VIX which topped 18 yesterday has reversed lower and is down another 13% back near the 15 level.
Trading comment: This is a nice bounce today, but will need to see some follow through to sound the all clear signal. We think it is more likely that the market continues to chop around these levels and build a new base. The reactions in normally steady stocks like IBM show how risky it can be to buy individual names ahead of their earnings reports. Our strategy remains to wait to see how stocks react to earnings and to buy stocks that report solid earnings and react positively, preferably on pullbacks. After any correction usually a new group of stocks emerges to lead the next rally and that is what we are watching for.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BGS, GOOG, IBM
18 Nisan 2013 Perşembe
S&P 500 Testing 50-day Support
The markets started out lower this morning, but so far have already staged a nice bounce in early trading. As we have said, its how the market closes on the day that is really key. So we will have to see if this early bounce has legs.
The S&P 500 it testing its 50-day average for the second day. This is often a level where buyers step in and we could see the market bounce from here. But if the SPX closes below its 50-day for more than a day that often signals that the market still has more work to do before finding support.
In economic news, leading indicators for March fell -0.1%. The Philly Fed index slipped to +1.3 from +2.0 last month. And weekly jobless claims rose to 352,000 from 348,000 last week.
Earnings reports continue to roll in. Results from last night and this morning appear to be a mixed bag in terms of looking for a trend. Tonight we hear from bellwethers MSFT and GOOG.
Stocks rising on earnings: CVA, VZ, PEP, SHW, UNP, APH
Stocks falling on earnings: MS, PM, EBAY, SNDK, BX, FCX, UNH
Asian markets were mixed overnight. India rallied again while Japan was lower. In China, home prices rose +3.6% last month. Hong Kong's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.5%. And the Nikkei News is suggesting that the Bank of Japan may hike its inflation expectations at its upcoming meeting.
Europe's markets are higher this morning on no real news. The Italian parliament failed to elect a president at its recent vote. And German's Merkel fell short of reaching a coalition majority vote regarding the Cyprus bailout.
The 10-year yield is lower again to 1.69%. And the volatility index was higher this morning to as high as 17.87 which is just below yesterday's high. It has since fallen back to 16.75. We have been discussing the low VIX for weeks and saying we would expect a spike back above the 15 level. I think the buying signal will come when the VIX moves back below the 15 level convincingly.
Oil prices are slightly weak today near $86.55. And gold prices are a bit higher around $1395.
Trading comment: As we mentioned above, the SPX is testing support at its 50-day average (1543) and could bounce. But most of the other leading indexes (Russell small-cap, mid-cap, and Nasdaq) remain below their respective 50-day averages which is usually a sign investors should be a bit cautious. A better signal is when all the indexes are back above their 50-days. And in terms of individual stocks its always risky to buy ahead of their earnings reports, since the reactions in stocks can be so unpredictable. We would rather wait to see which companies report solid quarters and then look to add to those on pullbacks. But when the market finds its footing, those stocks are likely to be the ones that fare the best in an ensuing rally.
KAM Advisors has long positions in CVA, VZ, MS, PM, GOOG
The S&P 500 it testing its 50-day average for the second day. This is often a level where buyers step in and we could see the market bounce from here. But if the SPX closes below its 50-day for more than a day that often signals that the market still has more work to do before finding support.
In economic news, leading indicators for March fell -0.1%. The Philly Fed index slipped to +1.3 from +2.0 last month. And weekly jobless claims rose to 352,000 from 348,000 last week.
Earnings reports continue to roll in. Results from last night and this morning appear to be a mixed bag in terms of looking for a trend. Tonight we hear from bellwethers MSFT and GOOG.
Stocks rising on earnings: CVA, VZ, PEP, SHW, UNP, APH
Stocks falling on earnings: MS, PM, EBAY, SNDK, BX, FCX, UNH
Asian markets were mixed overnight. India rallied again while Japan was lower. In China, home prices rose +3.6% last month. Hong Kong's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.5%. And the Nikkei News is suggesting that the Bank of Japan may hike its inflation expectations at its upcoming meeting.
Europe's markets are higher this morning on no real news. The Italian parliament failed to elect a president at its recent vote. And German's Merkel fell short of reaching a coalition majority vote regarding the Cyprus bailout.
The 10-year yield is lower again to 1.69%. And the volatility index was higher this morning to as high as 17.87 which is just below yesterday's high. It has since fallen back to 16.75. We have been discussing the low VIX for weeks and saying we would expect a spike back above the 15 level. I think the buying signal will come when the VIX moves back below the 15 level convincingly.
Oil prices are slightly weak today near $86.55. And gold prices are a bit higher around $1395.
Trading comment: As we mentioned above, the SPX is testing support at its 50-day average (1543) and could bounce. But most of the other leading indexes (Russell small-cap, mid-cap, and Nasdaq) remain below their respective 50-day averages which is usually a sign investors should be a bit cautious. A better signal is when all the indexes are back above their 50-days. And in terms of individual stocks its always risky to buy ahead of their earnings reports, since the reactions in stocks can be so unpredictable. We would rather wait to see which companies report solid quarters and then look to add to those on pullbacks. But when the market finds its footing, those stocks are likely to be the ones that fare the best in an ensuing rally.
KAM Advisors has long positions in CVA, VZ, MS, PM, GOOG
Pay Day Loan Confession: I've fallen and I can't get up!
…have you (or someone you know) "fallen" into the Pay Day Loan bottomless pit of debt and feel like you can't "get up" out of it? I have.
When you’re in a bind and you need a few hundred bucks to bridge you over a few days until your next pay day, a pay day loan may look very appealing. In my opinion ... Pay Day Loans are like an addictive drug. The first experience may seem helpful and pleasurable but it eventually becomes something that you believe you can’t live without. And just like a drug addiction, getting out of Pay Day Loan debt can be scary, daunting and financially painful. But … there is a cure for this Financial Dis-Ease.
Let’s first discuss how Pay Day Loans causes Financial STDs (Substantially Tremendous Debt). Ok … (true story) … a family member of mine needed $200 to pay the electric company to keep the lights on. A so-called friend referred them to a local pay day lender. The pay day lender charged $20 per $100 borrowed. The process was so pleasant and easy that they decided to borrow an extra $100 for a total of $300. They paid their past due electric bill for $200 and had $100 for food and gas until their next pay day. On their next pay day, they made the fateful decision to renew the pay day loan. So, this time the loan was for $360 (to pay off the original loan amount of $300 loan and the $60 fee). The new fee was another $72, which totaled $432 for the new loan. My family member renewed this pay day loan at least 5 or more times and quickly began to sink into debt.
Getting “up” out of pay day loan debt is not as easy as falling “down” into it, but it is possible. Here are 3 tips to get out of Pay Day Loan Debt.
COLD TURKEY
If at all possible, the best method is to stop taking out pay day loans immediately and sacrifice for the pay period. This will reset your financial situation and give you your full pay check during your next pay check. It is important to plan for this pay check deficiency. To help you through this financial deficiency,
- Ask your family members if they some money to spare or borrow,
- Contact your bank or credit union to see if you qualify for a payment deferment on your loan payment due to financial hardship,
- Cut out eating out during this pay period to save a few bucks, or
- Carpool with a co-worker or take public transportation to save on gas.
DEBT TREATMENT
Another option is to apply for a loan with a reasonable interest rate and short period of time (term) to pay off the pay day loan. So instead of having a pay a lump sum every month, you can paythe new loan off in more reasonable and smaller weekly, biweekly or monthly payments. If you go this route, make sure you keep the term at 12 months or less and make sure that the interest rate does not exceed 18%. Some credit unions may offer loan programs designed to help people get out of pay day loan debt. One of the advantages of getting a loan from credit unions is that they must comply with a “usury law,” which means that they cannot exceed a specific interest rate, usually 18%. If you have a great relationship with your bank, ask them if they have a loan consolidation program that can assist you with refinancing your pay day loan.
TERMINATION
A last resort to get out of pay day loan debt may be bankruptcy. The two chapters available to file under for bankruptcy are Chapter 13 or Chapter 7.
Chapter 13 bankruptcy is considered “reorganization” and is appropriate if you have significant collateral that you want to keep like a home or vehicle. Chapter 13 establishes a payment plan up to 5 years to pay on your debt based on your financial capacity. Once you have completed all of the payments ordered in the bankruptcy plan, the debt is considered “discharged” and the remaining debt is not collectible by the creditor.
Chapter 7 bankruptcy is considered “liquidation” and is appropriate if you have significant unsecured debt and minimum or no collateralize debt. Chapter 7 liquidates or “terminates” qualified unsecured debt. Should you have collateralized debt, you can “reaffirm” with the bank and continue to make payments according to your credit agreement or you can “surrender” the collateral to the bank or trustee so it can be sold to pay on the debt to liquidate.
This option again should be a last resort consideration but can assist you in resetting your financial situation with a fresh start. There are pros and cons to filing for bankruptcy so make sure that you consult with a knowledgeable and consumer focused bankruptcy attorney. Click here to listen to my interview with Bankruptcy Trustee & Attorney, Angelyn Wright, Esq., as she talks about the “Truth About Bankruptcy.”
Sinking in Pay Day Loan debt can feel helpless and hopeless, but there is financial resurrection. The great thing is that you hold the power in stopping this type of financial abuse by making the decision to stop using pay day loans. Make the decision today.
Of course, the best way to avoid "falling" into this bottomless pit of debt is to avoid using it at all costs. Seek alternative short term loans through your bank or credit union.
Financially True,
Tarra Jackson ... Making Money Sexy
P.S. The 3 tips above is a start to help you get up from falling down into this type of debt, but there are other ways as well. What are some other tips to "get up" from falling into pay day loan debt bottomless pit?
17 Nisan 2013 Çarşamba
Fear Rising In Aftermath of Boston
Busy morning already, which is why this post is later that normal. The markets are sharply lower in early trading on little economic news. But there have been a handful of earnings reports coming out, and none of them has contained a big upside surprise.
The volatility index is spiking +23% back above the 17 level today. I think fears are being exacerbated by the news coming out surrounding additional suspicious packages being found at the White House as well as two letters that tested positive for ricin. While not exactly like post-9/11, it is likely sparking memories of that and spooking folks.
In China there are continued reports of a new bird flu spreading, and we remember how the markets didn't like the H1N1 flu epidemic when it was spreading. China is already struggling with slowing growth, and if folks over there panic about this bird flu it could hit their economy.
Asian markets closed mixed overnight. A former Chinese official spoke and described local government debt levels as 'out of control'.
European markets are lower across the board today. UK unemployment rose to 7.9% and there are rumors that Germany and/or France could be the subject of sovereign debt downgrade.
In earnings news, we are seeing more stocks trade lower after reporting that trade higher.
Stocks rising on earnings: ABT, MAT, PNC, DGX
Stocks falling on earnings: INTC, BAC, YHOO, URI, CSX, BMI, TXT
The 10-year yield is lower to 1.69%. The dollar is higher today, and most commodities are lower. Oil prices are lower to $86.90, and copper prices are also down sharply. Gold prices are holding up and are nearly unchanged around $1386.
Trading comment: After Monday's sharp selloff and the small-cap index breaking below its 50-day average, we thought there would be more consolidation in the market. Yesterday's rally now looks more like just a short-term bounce that came on lighter volume than Monday. We thought the S&P 500 could test its 50-day average, and today it is within striking distance of that support level. So far the SPX is -3% off its recent highs. We figured the market was due for a 3-5% correction, but think it would probably bounce from there. So in this SPX 1520-1550 level we want to look for opportunities to add to stocks. Our hope is to find stocks that report great quarters but don't take off due to the overall weak market.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BAC
The volatility index is spiking +23% back above the 17 level today. I think fears are being exacerbated by the news coming out surrounding additional suspicious packages being found at the White House as well as two letters that tested positive for ricin. While not exactly like post-9/11, it is likely sparking memories of that and spooking folks.
In China there are continued reports of a new bird flu spreading, and we remember how the markets didn't like the H1N1 flu epidemic when it was spreading. China is already struggling with slowing growth, and if folks over there panic about this bird flu it could hit their economy.
Asian markets closed mixed overnight. A former Chinese official spoke and described local government debt levels as 'out of control'.
European markets are lower across the board today. UK unemployment rose to 7.9% and there are rumors that Germany and/or France could be the subject of sovereign debt downgrade.
In earnings news, we are seeing more stocks trade lower after reporting that trade higher.
Stocks rising on earnings: ABT, MAT, PNC, DGX
Stocks falling on earnings: INTC, BAC, YHOO, URI, CSX, BMI, TXT
The 10-year yield is lower to 1.69%. The dollar is higher today, and most commodities are lower. Oil prices are lower to $86.90, and copper prices are also down sharply. Gold prices are holding up and are nearly unchanged around $1386.
Trading comment: After Monday's sharp selloff and the small-cap index breaking below its 50-day average, we thought there would be more consolidation in the market. Yesterday's rally now looks more like just a short-term bounce that came on lighter volume than Monday. We thought the S&P 500 could test its 50-day average, and today it is within striking distance of that support level. So far the SPX is -3% off its recent highs. We figured the market was due for a 3-5% correction, but think it would probably bounce from there. So in this SPX 1520-1550 level we want to look for opportunities to add to stocks. Our hope is to find stocks that report great quarters but don't take off due to the overall weak market.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BAC
16 Nisan 2013 Salı
DOLLAR DECLINE CONFIRMED
Just another quick post tonight. As I have been saying for over a year now, the dollar will not make new highs, and it will collapse as the consequences of QE infinity ultimately take their toll.
Today the dollar confirmed that an intermediate degree decline has begun by closing strongly below the previous daily cycle low. A new pattern of lower lows and lower highs has now begun. (Although the dollar is due for a bounce sometime soon, but it should fail to make new highs and quickly continue the pattern of lower lows and lower highs.)
As I've been saying for months, the dollar rally was a mirage. The only reason the dollar index was strong was because the yen, euro, pound and Canadian dollar were all moving down into intermediate or yearly cycle lows together. That gave the illusion that the dollar was rising. The dollar was simply benefiting from people selling everything else.
But now it's the dollar's turn. Let's face it, in the real world you can't print unlimited amounts of money and not have something bad happen. The real world just doesn't work that way. Maybe in fairy tale land were magic works, but not here in the real world.
Over the next 2-3 months we will see the dollar drop down to, and I fully expect it to crash through support at 78.60, and maybe even test the 2011 lows. Of course that is only the beginning. Before this is done we will have a full blown currency crisis in the US dollar at the next three year cycle low that is due in late 2014. Who knows how much damage will be done during that catastrophe. I expect we will see something similar to what is happening to the yen right now.
As a matter of fact the yen is only the first of what will almost certainly be a rolling crisis as the cancer works it's way up the food chain from the yen, to the pound, and finally the dollar.
Brace yourself folks, it's time the lipstick comes off this pig, and it ain't going to be a pretty sight.
Today the dollar confirmed that an intermediate degree decline has begun by closing strongly below the previous daily cycle low. A new pattern of lower lows and lower highs has now begun. (Although the dollar is due for a bounce sometime soon, but it should fail to make new highs and quickly continue the pattern of lower lows and lower highs.)
As I've been saying for months, the dollar rally was a mirage. The only reason the dollar index was strong was because the yen, euro, pound and Canadian dollar were all moving down into intermediate or yearly cycle lows together. That gave the illusion that the dollar was rising. The dollar was simply benefiting from people selling everything else.
But now it's the dollar's turn. Let's face it, in the real world you can't print unlimited amounts of money and not have something bad happen. The real world just doesn't work that way. Maybe in fairy tale land were magic works, but not here in the real world.
Over the next 2-3 months we will see the dollar drop down to, and I fully expect it to crash through support at 78.60, and maybe even test the 2011 lows. Of course that is only the beginning. Before this is done we will have a full blown currency crisis in the US dollar at the next three year cycle low that is due in late 2014. Who knows how much damage will be done during that catastrophe. I expect we will see something similar to what is happening to the yen right now.
As a matter of fact the yen is only the first of what will almost certainly be a rolling crisis as the cancer works it's way up the food chain from the yen, to the pound, and finally the dollar.
Brace yourself folks, it's time the lipstick comes off this pig, and it ain't going to be a pretty sight.
Stocks Bounce In Early Trading
The market is bouncing back from yesterday's sharp selloff in early trading. Most people might think that the tragedy in Boston was the culprit for yesterday's weakness, but the market was already down quite a bit before the horrific event unfolded.
Yesterday gold prices plunged $100, the most in decades. Either some large funds are in trouble and being forced to liquidate positions, or someone around the globe is fearing some big time deflation around the corner. I tend to fall more in the former camp. Today gold is bouncing $20 back near the $1380 level. We have some positions in gold but would likely be sellers on a further bounce.
In economic news, housing starts hit 1,036,000 units in March which was above expectations. And industrial production was also slightly ahead of estimates at +0.4% in March.
Earnings reports are starting to roll in and are a bit of a mixed bag so far today. BRO, KO, and JNJ are trading higher after reporting while HCA, BLK, and GS are trading lower on their results.
Asian markets were mixed overnight. India was higher on hopes the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates soon. China was also higher despite Moody's lowering the country's outlook from positive to stable.
Europe is roughly flat today. Germany's economic sentiment index fell to 36.3 from 48.5 last month. And the eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 24.9 from 33.4.
The 10-year yield is up slightly to 1.71%. But the volatility index (VIX) is seeing some volatility of its own. Yesterday it surged +40% to close above the 17 level and today its back down -15% back below the 15 level. Big swings.
Trading comment: Its still early in the trading session, so this bounce has to endure until the close to be meaningful. It's more likely that this is just a bounce back after a big selloff and that the market likely still has more consolidating to do. The mid-cap index is right at its 50-day average and the small-cap index is below its respective 50-day, so those bear watching. We wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P 500 test its 50-day at some point, but then again nothing is too surprising in this market. Earnings season continues to heat up this week and next so that could add some color to the mix as well as some additional volatility.
KAM Advisors has long positions in KO, JNJ
Yesterday gold prices plunged $100, the most in decades. Either some large funds are in trouble and being forced to liquidate positions, or someone around the globe is fearing some big time deflation around the corner. I tend to fall more in the former camp. Today gold is bouncing $20 back near the $1380 level. We have some positions in gold but would likely be sellers on a further bounce.
In economic news, housing starts hit 1,036,000 units in March which was above expectations. And industrial production was also slightly ahead of estimates at +0.4% in March.
Earnings reports are starting to roll in and are a bit of a mixed bag so far today. BRO, KO, and JNJ are trading higher after reporting while HCA, BLK, and GS are trading lower on their results.
Asian markets were mixed overnight. India was higher on hopes the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates soon. China was also higher despite Moody's lowering the country's outlook from positive to stable.
Europe is roughly flat today. Germany's economic sentiment index fell to 36.3 from 48.5 last month. And the eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 24.9 from 33.4.
The 10-year yield is up slightly to 1.71%. But the volatility index (VIX) is seeing some volatility of its own. Yesterday it surged +40% to close above the 17 level and today its back down -15% back below the 15 level. Big swings.
Trading comment: Its still early in the trading session, so this bounce has to endure until the close to be meaningful. It's more likely that this is just a bounce back after a big selloff and that the market likely still has more consolidating to do. The mid-cap index is right at its 50-day average and the small-cap index is below its respective 50-day, so those bear watching. We wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P 500 test its 50-day at some point, but then again nothing is too surprising in this market. Earnings season continues to heat up this week and next so that could add some color to the mix as well as some additional volatility.
KAM Advisors has long positions in KO, JNJ
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE BUBBLE PHASE?
Until recently I was expecting the bubble phase for gold to occur as we came out of the next 8 year cycle low in 2016.
However with the panic sell off over the last two days and break of support at $1523, I'm now starting to think what we are seeing is the washout prior to the bubble phase. The Nasdaq in 98, and oil in 2007 are perfect examples of the transition into the "bubble"
Notice how these very harsh corrections all tend to reverse violently from severe oversold conditions and then never look back.
I'm starting to think that's what is transpiring in gold right now. We are in the washout phase and once the bottom forms gold will launch straight into the bubble phase over the next year and a half/two years. That will necessitate a rethink on how the next 8 year cycle is going to play out. Instead of the eight year cycle low generating the bubble as originally expected, it will signal the end of the secular bull market.
This means the bubble phase may come earlier than I was expecting with a final top in late 2014 or early 2015 instead of 2017/18.
A top in 2015 would still be a 15 year secular bull market, which is about normal for these things.
More in last night's report...
However with the panic sell off over the last two days and break of support at $1523, I'm now starting to think what we are seeing is the washout prior to the bubble phase. The Nasdaq in 98, and oil in 2007 are perfect examples of the transition into the "bubble"
Notice how these very harsh corrections all tend to reverse violently from severe oversold conditions and then never look back.
I'm starting to think that's what is transpiring in gold right now. We are in the washout phase and once the bottom forms gold will launch straight into the bubble phase over the next year and a half/two years. That will necessitate a rethink on how the next 8 year cycle is going to play out. Instead of the eight year cycle low generating the bubble as originally expected, it will signal the end of the secular bull market.
A top in 2015 would still be a 15 year secular bull market, which is about normal for these things.
More in last night's report...
15 Nisan 2013 Pazartesi
Focusing on the wrong thing
Everyone is focused on gold. What they should be focusing on is the stock market.
More in tonight's report...
More in tonight's report...
Truth Tour to the UN & Washington DC
We’re now in Delaware, at Carolyn's parents' house. We're continuing the Lakota Truth Tour that began on April 1 in Rapid City. We've already done our march to the UN in NYC, and our final stop is Washington DC. We've been showing the documentary, Red Cry, at most every event, also giving away free copies of the DVD to share and copy (the DVD is not for sale). This whole experience is a life-changing experience for me. It is not only a campaign to raise awareness in the world, but it is turning into a spiritual overhaul for me personally, something I never really expected.
The complete Red Cry should be on You Tube for free soon. I'll keep you posted.
Here is the schedule for the Lakota Truth Tour.
Grandmothers Back Out of Tour
We started in Rapid City, SD with five Lakota natives (Canupa, Leo, Camara, Pedro, and Cassie) and four white folks (Carolyn, Doug, Naomi, and me) in 3 minivans. We went through the Pine Ridge reservation to pick up the Lakota grandmothers who were supposed to be on the tour, but, to our disappointment, they backed out. Feeling extremely disheartened, the tour was almost cancelled. It is understandable that the grandmothers backed out, because there is a lot of risk for speaking out against the US government and its corruption on the Pine Ridge reservation - risk of life, risk of false accusation and unjust imprisonment of self and family. Many of the grandmothers are already suffering retribution for speaking out in the past. And those who speak in the documentary itself are taking a risk. The tribal government also gave the grandmothers checks the day we were to leave, a predictable tactic to steer them away from coming with us. When people are poor, how many would forfeit a check to come on the road with a risky tour?
Grandmothers Join the Tour
Two grandmothers, Charmaine White Face and one younger one, Barbara Charging Crow, joined us later, adding great strength to the tour. Charmaine (who is also in the documentary) is truly a wise, spiritual woman and a great feminine balance to Canupa, the headman of the Lakota’s Strong Heart Society. I can’t express the honor I feel being in the presence of such spiritual masters. The documentary alone is powerful in itself, but Canupa’s and Charmain's speaking and charismatic personalities brings each presentation to a new level.
Decolonization Training
This Truth Tour also conducted a decolonization training, facilitated mainly by Canupa, on our first evening in New York City. It never ceases to amaze me how passionately charismatic Canupa is, how he can make audiences spellbound, speaking straight from the heart. He is both intensely angry and compassionate, as well as full of humor. It’s not often you meet such a warrior and revolutionary leader, passionate about his own ancient spiritual tradition, in the spirit of Crazy Horse. I mean, we aren't talking about a fake wannabe Indian here. At this decolonization training, he called for people to step forward and destroy their identification cards and passports, to truly make their declaration of independence. To my surprise, many people stepped froward and did it.
Canupa, the Enigmatic Teacher
In New York City, the Lakota Truth Tour started a march to the UN, for the purpose of bringing a written statement declaring the ongoing genocide of the US government against the Lakota people and a call to end that genocide, and a call to demand the US keep its own treaties with the Lakotas, particularly the 1868 Treaty of Fort Laramie, which would give back all land stolen by the US government and restore the Lakota's complete sovereignty as an independent nation. I repeat, the US's own treaty.
(See the press release for our march to the UN here).
Why am I myself part of this tour?
It was the persecution and genocide of native peoples all over this continent and this world that is one of the reasons I decided to walk away from money and throw away my identification cards, documents, and trappings of Babylon. And, now, since I am now more in the spotlight, I am hoping my doing this can shine more light on the Lakota plight, as well as the plight of indigenous peoples all over the world.
Pray
The complete Red Cry should be on You Tube for free soon. I'll keep you posted.
Here is the schedule for the Lakota Truth Tour.
Grandmothers Back Out of Tour
But we decided to snuff out our discouragement and continue, working with what we had, showing the documentary. We're glad. It has turned out powerfully well, so far.
Grandmothers Join the Tour
 |
| Camara, Doug, Barbara Charging Crow (holding declaration of genocide), Charmaine White Face, and Canupa behind a barricade in front of the UN |
The turn-out at each event has been good and well-received. Many people are brought to tears, including myself.
Decolonization Training
 |
| Canupa conducting the decolonization training at the Judson Memorial Church in NYC |
Canupa, the Enigmatic Teacher
But some days I totally doubt Canupa, because I sometimes think he is an unreasonable asshole, seemingly even abusive. Other days I am enthralled by his spiritual passion and leadership. He’s a trickster and a sage, a man warrior and seemingly an angry adolescent boy rolled into one – at least in my perceptions sometimes. I even almost quit this tour, in fact, because I felt so offended. My heart has been through the ringer, and it is coming through clean.
March to the UN
March to the UN
 |
| Canupa, Camara, Charmaine, Barbara, Leo Marching to the UN |
(See the press release for our march to the UN here).
It is also interesting that the Lakotas are not recognized as a sovereign nation in the UN, otherwise they would have a seat there, as would other native peoples! This is contrary to the purpose of the UN.
 |
| March to the UN |
It was the persecution and genocide of native peoples all over this continent and this world that is one of the reasons I decided to walk away from money and throw away my identification cards, documents, and trappings of Babylon. And, now, since I am now more in the spotlight, I am hoping my doing this can shine more light on the Lakota plight, as well as the plight of indigenous peoples all over the world.
 |
| Canupa with UN Security Officer The UN would not allow the representative of the Lakota Nation to speak with any UN official except a security officer. Behind Canupa: Pedro, Ted (an Occupy dude who joined us in NYC), me, and Leo. |
The traditional Lakotas believe deeply in prayer, and pray to the Great Mystery every day (The Lakota word for God is Wakan Tanka, which is often translated as the Great Spirit, which Canupa calls the Great Mystery and Charmaine calls the Creator). All of nature continually speaks and manifests Wakan Tanka, from every blade of grass to the buffalo to every bird flying above. Those disconnected from nature have no spirituality and are out of touch with their own hearts and this reality. Our books and our knowledge more often than not blind our eyes to this simple reality, and in our blindness to reality we think those who see are primitive and superstitious. Prayer is like breathing to the traditional Lakota. I have been asked to request that you readers pray for the Lakotas and for this Truth Tour. Find stillness in yourself, the stillness of nature. This is your prayer.
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| Straight from the Heart: Native singers and drummers in New York City That's me in the yellow shirt & grey hair |
Monday Morning Musings
Markets are lower in early trading following weakness in overseas markets. This morning's economic data was also weaker than expected and is not providing any boost. And the commodity selloff continues today in earnest and is likely exacerbating fears in the market.
In economic news, the Empire Manuf. index for April came in at 3.1, which is down from the prior month's reading of 9.2. Also, the NAHB housing market index fell to 42 from 44 last month and that has homebuilding stocks trading lower today as well.
Last night it was reported that China's 1Q GDP grew 7.7% while the consensus expectations were for growth of 8.0%. Anytime we hear news that China may be slowing down it spooks investors and most Asian markets trade lower. It also didn't help that 13 people have been reported to have died from bird flu.
In Europe markets are also lower. Weekend reports suggested that German Chancellor Merkel might retire from her post in 2015.
In M&A news, Dish Network offered to buy Spring for $25.5 billion, a 12.5% premium to Friday's close. And Thermo Fisher (TMO) offered to buy Life Tech (LIFE) for $76, a 12% premium.
In earnings new, Citi topped estimates and is trading higher this morning. That is helping the financial sector withstand some of the selling this morning. Commodities are getting hit hardest and that is pushing the energy and materials stocks down the most so far.
Gold is plunging for a 2nd day. So far the price of the yellow metal is down more than $100 today below the $1400 level. Silver is also getting hit hard, and copper is down but not as much. Oil prices are lower as well, below the $89 level..
The 10-year yield is a bit weaker near the 1.71% level. And the volatility index is up 7% to around the 13 level. I would have expected to see a bit more of a spike.
Trading comment: So far the technical damage in the market is mild. The S&P 500 is down for a second day, but still barely off its all-time highs. The small-cap Russell index is down more, and testing its 50-day support. Since the Russell has been a leading index this year, its action bears monitoring. But this selloff looks kind of like another sector rotation with energy and materials stocks being sold, but financials and healthcare stocks being accumulated. Big picture we are letting stocks consolidate a bit more and then looking for opportunities to add to positions.
KAM Advisors has long positions in C
In economic news, the Empire Manuf. index for April came in at 3.1, which is down from the prior month's reading of 9.2. Also, the NAHB housing market index fell to 42 from 44 last month and that has homebuilding stocks trading lower today as well.
Last night it was reported that China's 1Q GDP grew 7.7% while the consensus expectations were for growth of 8.0%. Anytime we hear news that China may be slowing down it spooks investors and most Asian markets trade lower. It also didn't help that 13 people have been reported to have died from bird flu.
In Europe markets are also lower. Weekend reports suggested that German Chancellor Merkel might retire from her post in 2015.
In M&A news, Dish Network offered to buy Spring for $25.5 billion, a 12.5% premium to Friday's close. And Thermo Fisher (TMO) offered to buy Life Tech (LIFE) for $76, a 12% premium.
In earnings new, Citi topped estimates and is trading higher this morning. That is helping the financial sector withstand some of the selling this morning. Commodities are getting hit hardest and that is pushing the energy and materials stocks down the most so far.
Gold is plunging for a 2nd day. So far the price of the yellow metal is down more than $100 today below the $1400 level. Silver is also getting hit hard, and copper is down but not as much. Oil prices are lower as well, below the $89 level..
The 10-year yield is a bit weaker near the 1.71% level. And the volatility index is up 7% to around the 13 level. I would have expected to see a bit more of a spike.
Trading comment: So far the technical damage in the market is mild. The S&P 500 is down for a second day, but still barely off its all-time highs. The small-cap Russell index is down more, and testing its 50-day support. Since the Russell has been a leading index this year, its action bears monitoring. But this selloff looks kind of like another sector rotation with energy and materials stocks being sold, but financials and healthcare stocks being accumulated. Big picture we are letting stocks consolidate a bit more and then looking for opportunities to add to positions.
KAM Advisors has long positions in C
12 Nisan 2013 Cuma
Commodities Take It On The Chin
Markets are weak this morning after being higher for the last 4 days. The big dislocation is in the commodities markets, where prices are down sharply today. This isn't due to a gain in the dollar index either, as the dollar is roughly flat. I'm not sure the exact catalyst, other than concerns about global growth.
Oil prices are down to $90.75. Gold prices are taking it on the chin and all the way down to $1507. Silver prices are down 4% and copper prices are weak as well. Ag prices look like they are bucking the weakness so far.
Economic news this morning wasn't great either. March retail sales declined -0.4% vs. expectations for a flat reading. And the Univ. of Mich consumer survey came in below expectations at 72.3 from 78.6 last month.
Bank earnings this morning were mixed. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both reported results that beat EPS estimates but revenues were a bit light. And net interest margins were nothing to write home about. The stocks are both modestly lower so far.
Among the sector ETFs, energy and materials are by far the weakest sectors while defensive utilities are actually higher on the day.
Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, led by a -1.6% decline in India after Infosys (INFY) lowered guidance. Shares of INFY in the US are down 20% this morning-- ouch. Singapore reported GDP decline -0.6% vs. +0.5% consensus.
European markets are also lower today. In Spain, the Catalonian minister said it is impossible to implement the 5 billion euro cuts required to reach the 2013 deficit target.
Bond yields are lower today with the 10-year Treasury falling back to 1.73%.
The volatility index is up 6.5% back to the 13 level, but we could be in store for another trip up to the 15 level.
Trading comment: After the strong multi-day runup a pullback in the market was certainly in order. The news from the banks was not horrible, and actually Wells made some positive comments about the housing market. Commodities are getting crushed, but I haven't seen any specific news that would justify the sharp selling, so it could be technical in nature. Earnings season heats up next week, so we should hear from more companies about their outlooks. But so far my guess is this is just another mild pullback that dip buyers will look to take advantage of before long.
KAM Advisors has long positions in JPM, WFC
Oil prices are down to $90.75. Gold prices are taking it on the chin and all the way down to $1507. Silver prices are down 4% and copper prices are weak as well. Ag prices look like they are bucking the weakness so far.
Economic news this morning wasn't great either. March retail sales declined -0.4% vs. expectations for a flat reading. And the Univ. of Mich consumer survey came in below expectations at 72.3 from 78.6 last month.
Bank earnings this morning were mixed. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both reported results that beat EPS estimates but revenues were a bit light. And net interest margins were nothing to write home about. The stocks are both modestly lower so far.
Among the sector ETFs, energy and materials are by far the weakest sectors while defensive utilities are actually higher on the day.
Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, led by a -1.6% decline in India after Infosys (INFY) lowered guidance. Shares of INFY in the US are down 20% this morning-- ouch. Singapore reported GDP decline -0.6% vs. +0.5% consensus.
European markets are also lower today. In Spain, the Catalonian minister said it is impossible to implement the 5 billion euro cuts required to reach the 2013 deficit target.
Bond yields are lower today with the 10-year Treasury falling back to 1.73%.
The volatility index is up 6.5% back to the 13 level, but we could be in store for another trip up to the 15 level.
Trading comment: After the strong multi-day runup a pullback in the market was certainly in order. The news from the banks was not horrible, and actually Wells made some positive comments about the housing market. Commodities are getting crushed, but I haven't seen any specific news that would justify the sharp selling, so it could be technical in nature. Earnings season heats up next week, so we should hear from more companies about their outlooks. But so far my guess is this is just another mild pullback that dip buyers will look to take advantage of before long.
KAM Advisors has long positions in JPM, WFC
11 Nisan 2013 Perşembe
Up, Up, and Away?
The S&P 500 has broken its patter of one up day, one down day. That choppiness last for 13 days which is a very long streak. But then the breakout higher came and we have been up for 4 days in a row. That puts the market in short-term overbought territory, but it still hasn't paid to get bearish yet.
Retail stocks are leading the action this morning after same-store sales results were released. BBBY reported solid earnings results, and ROST topped sales expectations and raised guidance for this quarter.
On the downside, tech stocks are lagging after industry data from IDC pointed to a 14% decline in first quarter PC shipments. Microsoft is down nearly 5% on this news combined with a downgrade from Goldman Sachs.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, expect for China which was down slightly. Bird flu concerns are still an issue in China, and the chinese press reported that small business optimism on the country's economic outlook is low. Australia's unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.6%. The Bank of Korea and Bank of Indonesia both held their key interest rates unchanged.
European markets are modestly higher. Greek unemployment rose to 27.2% in January. And Eurozone officials have indicated the Cyprus bailout will be approved Friday with the first tranche of aid likely to come in May.
The 10-year yield is slightly lower at 1.78%. The VIX is up a bit to 12.55. For most of the year the VIX has oscillated in the 12-15 range, so those are the levels to watch for excessive optimism or pessimism.
Trading comment: The market bounce continues. Folks are likely emboldened by new all-time highs in the S&P 500, and bears likely had that level as a stop level to cover shorts. In the short-term, the market likely needs to do some consolidating again. But it has not paid one bit, and has actually cost you if you've been waiting for a 10% correction. I'm sure at some point we will have one, but it is unclear from what level in the market it will commence. If I had to go out on a limb, I would say we don't see one until summer if at all. Growth stocks have started to act better lately, and that is a good sign. A market that is led by defensive issues usually doesn't have the same staying power.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BBBY, ROST
Retail stocks are leading the action this morning after same-store sales results were released. BBBY reported solid earnings results, and ROST topped sales expectations and raised guidance for this quarter.
On the downside, tech stocks are lagging after industry data from IDC pointed to a 14% decline in first quarter PC shipments. Microsoft is down nearly 5% on this news combined with a downgrade from Goldman Sachs.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, expect for China which was down slightly. Bird flu concerns are still an issue in China, and the chinese press reported that small business optimism on the country's economic outlook is low. Australia's unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.6%. The Bank of Korea and Bank of Indonesia both held their key interest rates unchanged.
European markets are modestly higher. Greek unemployment rose to 27.2% in January. And Eurozone officials have indicated the Cyprus bailout will be approved Friday with the first tranche of aid likely to come in May.
The 10-year yield is slightly lower at 1.78%. The VIX is up a bit to 12.55. For most of the year the VIX has oscillated in the 12-15 range, so those are the levels to watch for excessive optimism or pessimism.
Trading comment: The market bounce continues. Folks are likely emboldened by new all-time highs in the S&P 500, and bears likely had that level as a stop level to cover shorts. In the short-term, the market likely needs to do some consolidating again. But it has not paid one bit, and has actually cost you if you've been waiting for a 10% correction. I'm sure at some point we will have one, but it is unclear from what level in the market it will commence. If I had to go out on a limb, I would say we don't see one until summer if at all. Growth stocks have started to act better lately, and that is a good sign. A market that is led by defensive issues usually doesn't have the same staying power.
KAM Advisors has long positions in BBBY, ROST
10 Nisan 2013 Çarşamba
WE ARE NOW GETTING DEEP INTO EUPHORIA PHASE
We are now at the point in the bull market where traders think that stocks are bullet proof.
Back in December I warned this was coming. I said at the time that this round of QE was going to be different. That it would have a much bigger effect on the market than the analysts were expecting. I remember at the time analysts were claiming each round of QE was having less and less effect.
I was confident that QE3 & 4 would usher in the euphoria phase of the bull market. Actually Bernanke is putting in place the final components to bring about the end of the bull. Let me explain.
QE infinity has, and is generating a runaway move in the stock market. The problem with a runaway move is that it's artificial. Let's face it anyone with a shred of common sense knows what's driving this move and it isn't the economy. Bernanke is crazy if he thinks the stock market is acting normal. Well this is the guy that said the subprime crisis was "contained". Any artificial move is destined to end badly, just like the artificial housing market ended badly.
The problem with runaway moves is that they stretch way too far above the mean in both price and time. As this process progresses institutional traders become more and more nervous, so the market becomes more and more shaky. Kind of like a heavy snowfield just waiting for that last snowflake to turn it into an avalanche.
And that's exactly how these runaway moves end. At some point all of these nervous investors try to get out the door at the same time, and you get a crash or semi crash. My best guess is that it will come in June or July. Until then the market will probably continue to creep higher with occasional 40-50 point corrections.
That's another characteristic of runaway moves. They set a standard correction size early in the move and all corrections there after fall in the range. Then at some point one of those corrections spikes through the range and months of gains get wiped out in a matter of days, or even minutes. The flash crash in 2010 is an excellent example of a runaway move crash.
So here's what I think is going to play out. Unknowingly Bernanke has put in motion a runaway move that will end in some kind of crash this summer. Depending on how long and far above the 200 day moving average this thing stretches will determine how violent the crash will be when the forces of regression take over. If this lasts till summer like I think it could then we could see a crash of 15-20%.
When that happens Bernanke is going to freakout and crank up the printing presses even faster. 85 billion may become 150 billion. When that happens commodity markets are going to go crazy just like they did in 07/08 as Bernanke tried to print away the real estate implosion.
When commodity prices spike, economies collapse...just like they did in 2008.
All the pieces are starting to fall into place. QE infinity is driving a runaway move in stocks that will end like all runaway moves, with some kind of crash scenario. That will trigger even more printing which will spike commodities next year, and that will be the end of the economy and the beginning of the end for this stretched and extended cyclical bull market. Look for a final top late this year or early in 2014 and a very extended topping process as the fundamentals slowly overwhelm Bernanke's printing press.
Back in December I warned this was coming. I said at the time that this round of QE was going to be different. That it would have a much bigger effect on the market than the analysts were expecting. I remember at the time analysts were claiming each round of QE was having less and less effect.
I was confident that QE3 & 4 would usher in the euphoria phase of the bull market. Actually Bernanke is putting in place the final components to bring about the end of the bull. Let me explain.
QE infinity has, and is generating a runaway move in the stock market. The problem with a runaway move is that it's artificial. Let's face it anyone with a shred of common sense knows what's driving this move and it isn't the economy. Bernanke is crazy if he thinks the stock market is acting normal. Well this is the guy that said the subprime crisis was "contained". Any artificial move is destined to end badly, just like the artificial housing market ended badly.
The problem with runaway moves is that they stretch way too far above the mean in both price and time. As this process progresses institutional traders become more and more nervous, so the market becomes more and more shaky. Kind of like a heavy snowfield just waiting for that last snowflake to turn it into an avalanche.
And that's exactly how these runaway moves end. At some point all of these nervous investors try to get out the door at the same time, and you get a crash or semi crash. My best guess is that it will come in June or July. Until then the market will probably continue to creep higher with occasional 40-50 point corrections.
That's another characteristic of runaway moves. They set a standard correction size early in the move and all corrections there after fall in the range. Then at some point one of those corrections spikes through the range and months of gains get wiped out in a matter of days, or even minutes. The flash crash in 2010 is an excellent example of a runaway move crash.
So here's what I think is going to play out. Unknowingly Bernanke has put in motion a runaway move that will end in some kind of crash this summer. Depending on how long and far above the 200 day moving average this thing stretches will determine how violent the crash will be when the forces of regression take over. If this lasts till summer like I think it could then we could see a crash of 15-20%.
When that happens Bernanke is going to freakout and crank up the printing presses even faster. 85 billion may become 150 billion. When that happens commodity markets are going to go crazy just like they did in 07/08 as Bernanke tried to print away the real estate implosion.
When commodity prices spike, economies collapse...just like they did in 2008.
All the pieces are starting to fall into place. QE infinity is driving a runaway move in stocks that will end like all runaway moves, with some kind of crash scenario. That will trigger even more printing which will spike commodities next year, and that will be the end of the economy and the beginning of the end for this stretched and extended cyclical bull market. Look for a final top late this year or early in 2014 and a very extended topping process as the fundamentals slowly overwhelm Bernanke's printing press.
Break Out The Party Hats
The S&P 500 has been hovering near new highs for quite some time now. But today it has finally broken above its 2007 intraday high of 1576. If we close at these levels, I would expect a fresh round of media headlines saying "Market Closes At New Record Highs". And that should make Joe Investor feel like he's missing out on a new bull market and look to put some money to work. Funny how higher prices have a way of making folks feel better about investing, when it should be the opposite.
Today's FOMC minutes got released early, but showed that most members maintained their stance that current asset purchases are likely still beneficial. There are a few members who are beginning to question whether the cost of the programs will start to outweigh the benefits and risks.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight. Chinese imports surged +14.1%, but the Shanghai market still closed flat on the session. Japan continues to trade higher. And tensions continue to run very high in Korea where Pyongyang might be set to carry out another missile test.
Europe's markets are higher led by a 2.4% spike in Spain. French industrial production rose 0.7%, Spain industrial production fell -6.5%, and Italy's declined -0.8%. The Troika has proposed granting Ireland and Portugal 7-year extensions on their bailout loans.
The dollar index is up slightly. Oil prices are down a bit near $94, gold prices are weaker to $1569, and silver and copper prices are lower also.
The 10-year yield is rising to 1.79%. And the volatility index is roughly flat around 12.83.
Trading comment: The stairstep patter continues, something that we feel like we have been saying all year. While the markets remain overdue for pullback, what we have seen is more of a sector rotation among stocks so that diff groups of stocks have had corrections at different times but not the overall market all at one time. Yesterday the small-cap index didn't participate in the rally, which is normally a red flag. But today the party hats are on, the markets are making new highs, and talk of a correction is being put on the back burner for the time being. Let's hope next week's earnings reports are good or this market could get hit.
Today's FOMC minutes got released early, but showed that most members maintained their stance that current asset purchases are likely still beneficial. There are a few members who are beginning to question whether the cost of the programs will start to outweigh the benefits and risks.
Asian markets were mostly higher overnight. Chinese imports surged +14.1%, but the Shanghai market still closed flat on the session. Japan continues to trade higher. And tensions continue to run very high in Korea where Pyongyang might be set to carry out another missile test.
Europe's markets are higher led by a 2.4% spike in Spain. French industrial production rose 0.7%, Spain industrial production fell -6.5%, and Italy's declined -0.8%. The Troika has proposed granting Ireland and Portugal 7-year extensions on their bailout loans.
The dollar index is up slightly. Oil prices are down a bit near $94, gold prices are weaker to $1569, and silver and copper prices are lower also.
The 10-year yield is rising to 1.79%. And the volatility index is roughly flat around 12.83.
Trading comment: The stairstep patter continues, something that we feel like we have been saying all year. While the markets remain overdue for pullback, what we have seen is more of a sector rotation among stocks so that diff groups of stocks have had corrections at different times but not the overall market all at one time. Yesterday the small-cap index didn't participate in the rally, which is normally a red flag. But today the party hats are on, the markets are making new highs, and talk of a correction is being put on the back burner for the time being. Let's hope next week's earnings reports are good or this market could get hit.
9 Nisan 2013 Salı
Thatcher, Freedom, and Free Markets
Many profound and detailed admiration pieces will be written about the late Margaret Thatcher, and they’ll be much deeper than this one.
But I want to get on record with my own esteem for Mrs. Thatcher, whose character, philosophy, and achievements made her one of Britain’s greatest prime ministers.
Way back in the early 1990s, at a National Review conference on the eastern shore of Maryland, had the great honor to serve on an economics panel that Mrs. Thatcher moderated. (Craig Roberts was also on that panel, although I can’t remember the name of the third panelist.) The topic was free markets and freedom, areas in which Margaret Thatcher made huge contributions, so I had a lot to live up to. And how did it go? Well, following the discussion, I got to sit next to Mrs. Thatcher during the luncheon. And she told me, “You know, Kudlow, you did rather well in that talk.” Naturally, I was thrilled.
Margaret Thatcher fought socialism in England and unyieldingly promoted the free-market views of Nobelists Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek. She stopped the destructive British labor unions dead in their tracks. With every bone in her body she attempted to limit government by lowering spending and taxation. She opted for big-bang financial deregulation. And she put London back on the map as a world banking center.
“Freedom” was always her watchword.
She also adored Ronald Reagan. And the two of them formed an extraordinary partnership for freedom and free markets. Working together they helped bring down the Soviet communist system. And it was a peaceful bring-down at that.
Thatcher saw Gorbachev first, and she reported to Reagan, “We can do business with him.” Reagan did, although he refused to back down on SDI. And as the American economy roared in response to Reagan’s own free-market supply-side policies, the Soviets were out-produced and eventually folded.
Mrs. Thatcher famously said, “The trouble with socialists is that they always run out of other people’s money.” That dictum really stands the test of time, doesn’t it? Running out of other people’s money? Today?
The age of big government has once again, at least temporarily, reared its ugly head. It’s a great battle for all the economies around the world. That’s one of many reasons why we will miss Margaret Thatcher. She did not go wobbly.
Market Bounces But On Lower Volume
Stocks bounced back yesterday with a late day rally that pushed the indexes to solid closing levels. The mid-cap and small-cap indexes closed back above their respective 50-day moving averages. But the gains in the market came on lower volume.
This morning markets are roughly flat. Energy and materials stocks are strongest while yesterday's winner consumer staples is lagging today.
Last night Alcoa reported earnings, which is generally viewed as the start to earning season. The company issued a mixed report, and it doesn't seem to be coloring the action so far today. Friday we hear from two of the largest banks, which investors will be paying attention to. But next week we will start to hear from more companies and get a sense about forward guidance from them.
In other interesting news, JC Penney ousted CEO Ron Johnson. I was surprised by this news. I knew JCP was doing awful, but I thought the board was giving him more time to execute on his vision. I think the big difference was that at Apple Ron Johnson had products that the public clamored for. So of course the stores were a big success. But at JCP there is no product in high demand, so it doesn't really matter how cool the stores are.
Asian markets were mixed overnight. As China tries to cool property prices is may start requiring larger down payments for second homes. Recently introduced measures have resulted in weekly transactions falling 68% for existing homes.
Europe's markets are trading with modest gains. Germany reported a trade surplus while France reported a larger than expected deficit. Swiss retail sales rose 2.4%. And UK industrial production rose more than expected 1.0% last month.
The dollar is down a little today, which is helping commodities. Gold prices are higher near $1587. Silver and copper prices are also higher. Oil prices are flattish around $93.35.
The 10-year yield is barley positive at 1.73%. And the VIX is up a touch to 13.38 after reversing lower yesterday afternoon.
Trading comment: The small- and mid-cap indexes aren't yet participating in this morning's bounce. And while they closed above their 50-days yesterday, the bounce came on lower volume which means the rally lacked conviction. I would say the jury is still out, and if these leading indexes turn tail and move back below their 50-days it indicates that the market has more work to do consolidating its recent gains.
This morning markets are roughly flat. Energy and materials stocks are strongest while yesterday's winner consumer staples is lagging today.
Last night Alcoa reported earnings, which is generally viewed as the start to earning season. The company issued a mixed report, and it doesn't seem to be coloring the action so far today. Friday we hear from two of the largest banks, which investors will be paying attention to. But next week we will start to hear from more companies and get a sense about forward guidance from them.
In other interesting news, JC Penney ousted CEO Ron Johnson. I was surprised by this news. I knew JCP was doing awful, but I thought the board was giving him more time to execute on his vision. I think the big difference was that at Apple Ron Johnson had products that the public clamored for. So of course the stores were a big success. But at JCP there is no product in high demand, so it doesn't really matter how cool the stores are.
Asian markets were mixed overnight. As China tries to cool property prices is may start requiring larger down payments for second homes. Recently introduced measures have resulted in weekly transactions falling 68% for existing homes.
Europe's markets are trading with modest gains. Germany reported a trade surplus while France reported a larger than expected deficit. Swiss retail sales rose 2.4%. And UK industrial production rose more than expected 1.0% last month.
The dollar is down a little today, which is helping commodities. Gold prices are higher near $1587. Silver and copper prices are also higher. Oil prices are flattish around $93.35.
The 10-year yield is barley positive at 1.73%. And the VIX is up a touch to 13.38 after reversing lower yesterday afternoon.
Trading comment: The small- and mid-cap indexes aren't yet participating in this morning's bounce. And while they closed above their 50-days yesterday, the bounce came on lower volume which means the rally lacked conviction. I would say the jury is still out, and if these leading indexes turn tail and move back below their 50-days it indicates that the market has more work to do consolidating its recent gains.
8 Nisan 2013 Pazartesi
Monday Morning Musings
The markets are lower in early trading following Friday's bounce from the lows. There isn't too much in the way of market moving news this morning. The big M&A news is GE buying Lufkin Industries (LUFK) for $88.50 a share, which is a 38% premium to Friday's close.
This week also kicks off earnings season. Alcoa is set to report earnings after the close today, but the 2 biggies investors are waiting for are on Friday when JPMorgan and Wells Fargo report.
Asian markets were mixed overnight. Japan continues to rally as export stocks climb and the yen weakens in response to the BoJ QE initiative. Trading in Japanese govt bonds had to be halted for the 2nd consecutive session after volatility tripped the circuit breakers. China closed at its lowest level of the year after concerns over a new bird flu are spreading. So far it has been reported that 21 people have contracted the bird flu in recent weeks. Restaurants with chicken exposure could see weak sales in the near-term.
European indexes are mostly higher. German industrial production rose 0.5%. But the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index fell to -17.3 from -10.6 last month. Lastly, Portugal's constitutional court ruled some of the EU-imposed austerity measures are unconstitutional.
So far defensive consumer staples stocks are bucking the weakness while healthcare stocks are lagging.
The dollar is up a bit today, and commodities are mixed. Precious metals prices are lower with gold down slightly near $1572. But oil prices are higher ($93.20) as are ag prices and copper.
The 10-year yield is bouncing just a little bit after Friday's extreme weakness to the 1.71% level.
And the volatility index is still trading below the 15 level currently up 3.3% to 14.38.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 looked like it was headed for a test of its 50-day moving average on Friday before dip buyers stepped in and the index rallied late in the day. But the Nasdaq index and the Mid-cap index are both right at their 50-day support, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index has broken below its 50-day. In addition, many leading stocks have either started to break down or remain sufficiently extended that they need to further consolidate recent gains. As a result I expect the market to continue to be choppy in the near-term without much of an edge going to the bulls or the bears.
KAM Advisors has long positions in JPM and WFC
This week also kicks off earnings season. Alcoa is set to report earnings after the close today, but the 2 biggies investors are waiting for are on Friday when JPMorgan and Wells Fargo report.
Asian markets were mixed overnight. Japan continues to rally as export stocks climb and the yen weakens in response to the BoJ QE initiative. Trading in Japanese govt bonds had to be halted for the 2nd consecutive session after volatility tripped the circuit breakers. China closed at its lowest level of the year after concerns over a new bird flu are spreading. So far it has been reported that 21 people have contracted the bird flu in recent weeks. Restaurants with chicken exposure could see weak sales in the near-term.
European indexes are mostly higher. German industrial production rose 0.5%. But the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index fell to -17.3 from -10.6 last month. Lastly, Portugal's constitutional court ruled some of the EU-imposed austerity measures are unconstitutional.
So far defensive consumer staples stocks are bucking the weakness while healthcare stocks are lagging.
The dollar is up a bit today, and commodities are mixed. Precious metals prices are lower with gold down slightly near $1572. But oil prices are higher ($93.20) as are ag prices and copper.
The 10-year yield is bouncing just a little bit after Friday's extreme weakness to the 1.71% level.
And the volatility index is still trading below the 15 level currently up 3.3% to 14.38.
Trading comment: The S&P 500 looked like it was headed for a test of its 50-day moving average on Friday before dip buyers stepped in and the index rallied late in the day. But the Nasdaq index and the Mid-cap index are both right at their 50-day support, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index has broken below its 50-day. In addition, many leading stocks have either started to break down or remain sufficiently extended that they need to further consolidate recent gains. As a result I expect the market to continue to be choppy in the near-term without much of an edge going to the bulls or the bears.
KAM Advisors has long positions in JPM and WFC
5 Nisan 2013 Cuma
3 Ways to Stop Financial Self-Sabotage
… have you (or someone you know) committed Financial Self-Sabotage? I have.
Yeah I know what you’re thinking … “Financial Self-Sabotage?” Yes many of us have a very dysfunctional relationship with our finances. Whether it is a fear of commitment or wanting to avoid getting into another financially abusive relationship; many people execute financial self-sabotage. Financial self-sabotage is being aware of what you are doing; knowing it is not beneficial to your financial well-being, situation or your financial goals; yet you still do it anyway. Don't fret! Most of us do it every now and then. Here are 3 Ways to Stop Financial Self-Sabotaging.
Although I Financially Self-Sabotaged myself, I was eventually able to identify it, acknowledge it and fix it. The great thing is that now, when I start doing things that are counter-intuitive to what I need and want to accomplish financially, I am able to choose to make better financial decisions to stop financial self-sabotaging myself.
Financially True,
STOP BREAKING YOUR BUDGET'S HEART
Even though budgets are living and breathing documents and may change, they help us keep financial promises to creditors, other bills, and more importantly to ourselves and our financial future through savings. Every time we break our budget, we position ourselves to break a financial promise, which may negatively affect our financial goals.
When I realize and acknowledge that I am breaking my budget frequently,
- I re-evaluate my budget to make sure it is "S.M.A.R.T." (Simple, Manageable, Accurate, Repetitive with Times of all due dates).
- I may also reassess my Financial Goals to make sure they are "S.M.A.R.T." (Specific, Meaningful, Attainable, Reasonable & Time-driven) as well.
PLAN FOR FINANCIAL SLIP UPS
Confession ... I am an Emotional Spender. (Look out for my Blog: Emotional Spender Confession: I am an Emotional Spender and Why it's OK!). I rebel against anyone or anything that tries to cage me in (I'm an Aquarius, go figure). I have also realized and admitted that I financially self-sabotage during a specific time of the month when I feel unusually emotional. Ladies, you may understand. Men, don't judge.
So, I set aside extra money in my "Slip Up Money Jar" to use when I need a little retail therapy through emotional spending. I don't justify it, I just plan and allocate for it.
If you are like me regarding this, include your Emotional Spending Sprees in your budget so that you don't use money that is allocated to something more important like, giving, saving or paying your bills. Just remember, being Financially Promiscuous requires Financial Contraception (Budget). Again, plan and proceed with caution.
STOP PLAYIN' YOURSELF
Ok, here’s the thing … if we don’t know the rules of the financial Game, we're going to get Played. Many years ago, I used to lose the financial game because I didn't understand how my money and credit management behaviors financially affected me. As I matured and grew in the financial services industry, I realized that I was playing Checkers when the financial institutions were playing Chess and losing was EXPENSIVE. I was financially self-sabotaging myself because I didn't take the time to learn the rules of the financial game by reading the Disclosures thoroughly and completely. My reality check was that "they weren't cheating me ... I just didn't take the time to learn the rules of the financial game." That was why I was getting played.
So because I was (and still am) a sore loser, I learned the rules of the financial game by reading the Disclosures very carefully before I opened an account or signed for a loan, product or service.
Some examples of disclosures you should you read and understand are:
- Truth In Savings Disclosure
- Truth In Lending Disclosure & Loan Agreement
- Fee Schedule
- Credit Card Disclosure & Shumer Box
Tarra Jackson ... Making Money Sexy
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