21 Eylül 2010 Salı

SHORT TERM TOP?

The market is now 16 days into the current daily cycle. We typically see a minor half cycle correction around day 15-20. I'm guessing the Fed is going to give the market exactly what it wants to hear today. I also think the market has already discounted that.

I expect the "news" will be used to take profits after the strong rally of the last three weeks (the pullback into the half cycle low). I also expect bears will mistakenly see this as the market finally coming to its senses and heading back down.

Unfortunately I'm afraid they will be wrong again. This should only be a brief profit taking event to dampen sentiment before the next push higher. Possibly to test the April highs. 

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