Are Hedge Funds Good at Reading The Market>

The tentative answer seems to be "Yes".

According to a new study "Unbundling Hedge Fund Betas" by by Ulloa, Giamouridis, Mesomeris, and Noorizadesh there's evidence that hedge funds increase betas prior to market upswings. Here's the abstract:

This article is concerned with the systematic exposures of equity hedge fund managers. In particular we seek common equity hedge fund systematic exposures through rigorous model selection techniques. We study their time variance to examine if equity hedge fund style characteristics are stable through time. Most importantly, we explore the informational role of manager decisions to shift their exposures to certain styles. Our results suggest that equity fund managers are exposed to three dominant style strategies, namely the 'market', 'value' and 'momentum'. We also discover that there is a considerable degree of variability in the factor exposures over time for the various dominant sources of systematic risk/return. Finally, we show evidence that managers vary their exposures to the 'market' in time to exploit favourable market moves. A similar pattern is however not observed for their 'value' or 'momentum' exposures.

Read the whole thing (downloadable copy at SSRN) here.

HT: All About Alpha

Sunday Link Dump - More on PE and Hedge Funds

The semester continues its march to the last day of classes (I have a total of 7 teaching days left until finals). So, I'm in my office on a Sunday getting ready for the final push. I leave for the Eastern Finance Association Meetings in New Orleans Wednesday after class, so I have to get a bit ahead of things (I still haven't written my quiz for my sub, or finished my presentation, or even started on my discussants comments).

So while I toil away, here are three links (again, on hedge funds and PE firms - I seem to be in a rut) to keep you busy:

All About Alpha interviews Tom Schneeweis of UMASS on hedge funds, alpha, and risk. Here's the money quote: "I really do believe that most hedge fund managers want to believe they are wizards. When in reality, all they are doing is accepting certain types of risk. "

According to this Fortune magazine article on the distribution of PE firms, the majority of PE funds are well under$1 Billion in size - in fact, the average fund (once the top ten are excluded) has an average size of $180 million, if you don't count the top 10 firms.

Here's an overview of hedge funds (in PDF format), compliments of Michael Covel.

Enough blogging - my grading beckons.