GOLD OIL RATIO

The gold:oil ratio is nearing the upper limits of its trading band. When this level has been reached in the past it usually signaled a decline in gold (move down into an intermediate cycle low) and a rally in oil was eminent.

Normally I would expect the same this time as gold is very deep into an intermediate cycle and overdue for a major corrective move. There is a problem though. Oil is still very early in its intermediate cycle. Also oil has broken below its prior intermediate cycle low signaling a failed and left translated intermediate cycle is in progress.

Taking into consideration a normal intermediate oil cycle lasts 50 to 70 days, and this cycle is only on day 32, then oil should generally continue lower for another 20+ days. 

As oil and stocks have been moving in lockstep lately it's not surprising that the stock market's daily cycle also has 20 or so days before an expected final intermediate bottom.

So if the gold:oil ratio is to regress back to the mean, and oil still has a month before an expected bottom the only way the gold oil ratio can decline is if gold starts to accelerate to the downside, dropping significantly faster than oil.